The 1st Trump vs Clinton Debate

This Time It’s Armageddon

So now, begins the event, we’ve been waiting for all this election, the 1^st debate. I already discussed the scaredy Trump face, so you have some body language to observe, but I have not discussed the debate in general. So, here’s my take.

Do Debates Matter?

There is actually some questions among political scientists as to whether debates affect elections. The short answer is that, usually the polls do not shift much and settle back to where they were before. Effectively debates, produce a bounce like the conventions. A good example of this was the 1^st Romney vs Obama debate. Obama’s poor performance was believed to revitalize Romney’s chances after the 47% discovery. (I refuse to call that a gaff because I believe it was more substantive than that, but that’s another post). In the end, it didn’t. Polls settled back to as before. Now, of course you could point out that the debate undid Romney’s previous decline and note there were 2 more debates. But, you can see why political scientists disagree. However, the fact is that in most past elections the polls eventually went back to where they were.

The debate we know mattered was Reagan vs Carter. We remember Reagan for what most would consider 8 years as successful president. (The average of historians rank him around 16^th which ironically is the same as Obama). However, before that he was a very controversial figure, even by the standards of today. If you haven’t heard it, here was his take back then of medicare,

Carter on the other hand was ending a very unpopular term with economic troubles and the Iranian hostage crisis. You could say any warm body could have beaten him. Bur, Reagan was crazy. I just showed you the clip. And, remember that media was much more limited than today, giving only this debate for Reagan to rebuttal. Carter was able to keep even in the polls and might have been re-elected, but Reagan was able to undo that with one line: “There you go again”.

And then Reagan became president.
This debate is lining up under similar dynamics. We have a strongly unpopular democratic candidate (though not as bad as Carter) and a “crazy” republican candidate (though way more crazy than Reagan). Perhaps Trump can pull off his own “there you go again” moment. However, in this media environment, you’d have to have had your head under a Rush Limbaugh blanket to not have heard Trump’s craziness. Plus, they’ll be two more debates, There was only one between Reagan and Carter.

So, Just How is This Going to Go

In the first debate, I predict Trump and Clinton will have a thoughtful discussion of the issues where Trump shows his knowledge of current events and constantly compliments Clinton. (Yeah, I couldn’t keep a straight face as I wrote it).

So, what can we really expect at the debate? I haven’t a friggin clue. However, I know what is the most important reason to watch in the debate, the drinking game. So, as my contribution, I will designate my suggested words by following it with (drink).
But, here’s what they need to do in this order.

Trump

1. Not lose his temper
   
2. Not bully Clinton too much
   
3. Keep moderate republicans comfortable with him
   
4. Appeal more to woman
   

Clinton

1. Not come off as cold or condescending
   
2. Answer questions about emails (drink) quickly
   
3. Get Trump to lose his temper
   
4. Motivate African Americans, Hispanic, and younger voters
   
5. Keep moderate republicans and woman uncomfortable with Trump
   

The theme of the debate is “America’s Direction”, whatever the heck that means. However, I think it will not matter because instead, the moderator will focus on what he believes are the question the audience is most curious.

What is your response to the events in Charlotte and Tulsa?
Trump: We need more police (profiling, “stop and frisk”, etc.). He may also say “I’m the and order president” (drink) and “We need to make America great, again” (drink). In other words, let’s go back to the 1950s.

Clinton: How bad it is. Police cameras need to be released to the public. Perhaps she will go as far as to criticize NC new laws, and propose some kind of federal standard or oversight. In other words, African Americans please don’t stay home; Trump wants to bring back segregation and Jim Crow laws.

Mr. Trump please explain your recent change on Bitherism?
Trump: “I finished it” (drink). “Hillary started it” (drink). In other words, moderate republicans and women please don’t hate me.

Clinton: He or his supporters are racist (drink) and the alt right (drink). In other words, moderate republicans and woman, you should hate him. If she is smart, she claims this makes him temperamentally unfit (drink). This is also a perfect opportunity for a one liner.

Trump: You’re the bigot (drink) and you call everyone ‘deplorable’ (drink). Your failed policies (drink) shows you don’t care about African Americans. In other words, hate Hilary, not me; she hates you.

Secretary Clinton please explain your private email (drink) server?
Clinton: ?. But please make it short.

Trump: This proves Crooked Hillary (drink) cannot be trusted, and her foundation (drink) is the largest pay-for-play setup in history. In other words, you can’t trust Clinton.

Clinton: What about your foundation (drink), Trump? Never used your own money. Bribed a DA. Used to pay legal fees. And let’s not forget, bought a football and a 6 foot painting of yourself. In other words, maybe you don’t trust me, but you can’t trust him either.

Though the Trump and Clinton Foundations my come up in a separate question.

And then a whole butch of boring stuff about the economy, health care, and maybe some foreign policy (but I believe they’ll save that for later debates). However, we will be all too drunk to care.

So what other drinking words did I forget? How about: "Benghazi" and "America first".

Whatever you choose, please don’t use these for your drinking game. You’ll get alcohol poisoning.

• Believe me.
  
• Give me a break
  
• I’m telling you
  
• You tell me

However, if he once says “I have a very good brain”, let’s all just chug until we’re too drunk to remember the rest of the night.