For the Good of the Country, Make Trump a 1 Term President
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| Republican Lack of Will and Wishful Thinking has Endangered Us |
- Attempt: High
- Competence: Medium
- No Check: High -> Medium
If you read the two previous posts, I had the No Check rank at High, but understandably, I’ve moved it back to Medium because Special Counsel Mueller was appointed. I am tentatively optimistic that it keeps this current threat contained. However, I am not overly so that we are safe from the next threat.
The Comey firing was a threat to our democratic progress. The only argument was whether the damage went beyond what the last two presidents have done. Thankfully, that question is irrelevant. We were alerted to it by Trump’s incompetence. And, he was checked by an institution, the justice system. Future presidents cannot hide their wrongdoing by firing their investigator.
So now, some parsing. I am watching for a Disaster Presidency and a Threat Presidency separately. They are certainly related, but as I pointed out in part 2, a potential disaster only protects us against certain kinds of threat. Wrongdoing found by the Special Counsel is a disaster that congress may act on, but future obstruction is the kind of threat they might ignore. There is a need to watch for what I described in part 2 as the Accidental Dictator.
What is concerning is that he was only stopped by the courage (or survival instinct) of a single individual, Deputy Attorney General Rubenstein. Our democracy protected by only the right person in the right place is not comforting. There may not be such an individual next time. So, far we have only been protected by leaks and the court (help by state governments). The check designated by the Constitution, Congress, has not come to our rescue, nor do I believe it will. How can I say that? History.
Fundamental to Trump becoming president is the Republican Party’s lack of will to stop him. Despite him stating he had no allegiance to their party, they let him run in their primary. Though constantly contradicting principles with which they have righteously judge the rest of us, they elected him as their nominee. Though well within their own rules and historical precedent, no one challenged him during the convention and let him have the nomination. Constantly prominent congressman voice objections to his behavior, then almost immediately endorsed him.
I understand why. They wanted to keep their jobs. Doing any of what I listed would have created a backlash endangering their re-election, even in the safest state/district. That has not changed. Of three presidents to be “impeached”[1] (Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton), they were all done when the opposite party controlled the Congress, and many would agree that at least one of these “impeachment” was only politically motivated. We just argue about which one.
Simple fact, there is little chance President Trump will be removed from office.
But then, I am not asking him to be impeached. I’m asking the Congress to take lesser steps. How about a declaration that if he fires the next FBI director, congress will consider putative action? Congress could censure the president (though that would do little). At the very least, stop attacking one of the few checks that has been working, leaks.
Instead, they have cravenly done none of this. In their initial response to Comey’s firing, just a quarter of senators have said anything against Trump and then only in the most parsed and vague language. As I pointed out in part 2, they only increased the rhetoric when he should dangerous incompetence. Congress has been like the parents that let their kid kick strangers in the shine and says, “He’s such a handful. What can you do?”.
Again, I understand. Republican voters demand a huge price for disloyalty, and integrity gives little electoral reward. I said I understand. I don’t condone.
That the President endangers democracy is not enough. It’s also not enough that he endangers their re-election. They must be certain, with no possibility of doubt and, maybe not even then, they may embrace wishful thinking like we heard before. (He’ll change. He’ll have good people around him, etc.) Until Trump is so unpopular that they see no hope of being re-elected, we cannot expect the Congress to be a check on the President.
And there, the situation is sadder. Conservative media has fully embraced the idea that the Russian Investigation is only politics and “fake news”. There is no surprise that his aggregate approval is still above 38%[2]. I can’t see the House become a real check until those approvals get into the low 30%, and still, it will be the least they can get away with. Only 2 senators need to worry about non-republican votes in 2018. I’m not certain there is a number low enough to move the Senate.
Considering this, I have a recently updated to the Congress Count:
- 52/238 is the Senate/House Success Count
- 64//217 is the Senate/House Disaster Count
- 16/23 is the Senate/House Resistance Count
Therefore, I added a new count, the Resistance Count.[4] This is the Disaster Count minus any democrats. The theory is that to push McConnell and Ryan, they first must worry about losing their majority seat. Over fifty present of their party must want it. By that measure, 16/23, means we must rely on their conscience to act. (Que shiver.)
Now, the democrats winning the House in 2018 has become critical to protecting our democracy. History and convention say they will, but we are far from a guarantee. The senate is almost assuredly to remain in control of republicans. Still, the House would be enough to continue investigations that neither the President nor republicans can stop. However, do not count on impeachment. The House has the power to call impeachment, but if it does not pass the Senate, Trump would more likely be helped as Clinton was. Instead, a more realistic goal is to win the House, keep him in check, and make sure the American people understand the full details of his unfitness. Then, we can end this nightmare in 2020.
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