Aggregates of the 538 Trump Score
| Average | Median | Rep Avg | Dem Avg | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last | Current | Last | Current | Last | Current | Last | Current | |
| Senate | 0.74 | 1.60 | 1.10 | 1.70 | 14.4 | 13.0 | -14.4 | -11.5 |
| House | 0.18 | 1.16 | 0.70 | 1.50 | 7.12 | 7.78 | -8.34 | -7.09 |
Last updated Apr 15th
Total Senate Success and Disaster Count
| 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | Total | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Base Count | Success Count | Disaster Count | Success Count | Disaster Count | Success Count | Disaster Count | Success Count | Disaster Count |
| Republican | 30 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 20 |
| Demorats / Independents | 31 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 48 |
Last updated Apr 15th
45 is the Senate Success Count, the number of senators that support an unpopular law
- Less than 50 means President Trump's Presidency is at best hampered
- 60 and over means President Trump is free to act as he wishes
68 is the Senate Disaster Count, the number of senators willing to proactively stop him
- Less than 50 means President Trump is safe even if the Democratic party is in control
- 67 and over means President Trump is one mistake away from impeachment
20 is the Senate Resistance Count, the number of senators willing to confront the Majority Leader
- 26 senators are needed to replace the Majority Leader
List of Senators Most Likely to Oppose Their Party
| State |
Senator
| Swing | Running | Success Count | Diasater Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | Jeff Flake | Yes | 1 | ||
| FL | Bill Nelson | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| IN | Joe Donnelly | Yes | 1 | ||
| ME | Angus King | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| MI | Debbie Sabenow | Yes | 1 | ||
| MN | Amy Klobuchar | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| MS | Rober Wicker | Yes | 1 | ||
| MT | Joe Tester | Yes | 1 | ||
| NV | Dean Heller | Yes | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| ND | Heidi Heitkamp | 1 | |||
| OH | Sherrod Brow | Yes | 1 | ||
| TN | Bob Corker | * | 1 | ||
| UT | Orrin Hatch | * | 1 | ||
| WV | Joe Manchin | Yes | 1 |
Running in 2020
| State |
Senator
| Swing | Running | Success Count | Diasater Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | Cory Gardner | Yes | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| GA | David Perdue | Yes | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| IA | Joni Ernst | Yes | 1 | ||
| ME | Susan Collins | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| MI | Gary Peters | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| MN | Al Franken | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| NH | Jeanne Shaheed | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| NC | Thorn Tillis | Yes | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| PA | Mark Warner | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| SC | Lindsey Grahm | Yes | 1 | 1 | |
| TX | John Cornyn | Yes | 1 |
Running in 2022
| State |
Senator
| Swing | Running | Success Count | Diasater Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK | Lisa Murkowski | * | Yes | 1 | |
| AZ | John McCain | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| CO | Michael Bennet | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| FL | Marco Rubio | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| GA | Johnny Isakson | Yes | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| IA | Chuck Grassley | Yes | 1 | ||
| KS | Jerry Moran | * | Yes | 1 | |
| KY | Rand Paul | * | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| NV | Catherine Cortez Masto | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| NH | Maggie Hassan | Yes | Yes | 1 | |
| NC | Richard Burr | Yes | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| OH | Rob Portman | * | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| PA | Pat Toomey | Yes | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| SC | Tim Scott | * | Yes | 1 | |
| TX | Tedd Cruz | Yes | 1 | ||
| WI | Ron Johnson | Yes | Yes | 1 | 1 |
Latest update Apr 15th
- A state is considered a 'Swing' state is the vote was +/- 5% for President Trump. Here '*' means the state is not 'Swing', but the senator has shown independence in another way.
- For now, all senators up for re-election after 2018 is considered 'Running' until they have stated otherwise.
- For now, senators in 'Swing' states are considered in democratic states
- This will change if President Trump's popularity gets to 50% or above
- For now, democratic senators will always vote the party line
- This will change if President Trump's popularity gets to 50% or above,
- Or democratic solidarity begins to break
- For now, all republican senators up for re-election after 2018 would vote to punish the President if need.
- This assumes that a senator believes he can recover in time
- This will change if President Trump's popularity gets to 50% or above
Total House Success and Disaster Count
Party | Base | Success Count | Disaster Count | Total Success Count | Total Disaster Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 201 | 28 | 39 | 229 | 39 |
| Democrats | 193 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 193 |
Last updated Aug. 17th
229 is the House Success Count, the number of representatives that support an unpopular law
232 is the House Disaster Count, the number of representatives willing to proactively stop him
- 218 is needed to support or oppose the President
- With the retirement of Paul Ryan, there is no longer a House Resistance Count
List of Representatives Most Likely to Oppose Their Party
| District |
Representative
| Swing | Success Count | Disaster Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-5 | Andy Biggs | * | 1 | 1 |
| CA-4 | Tom McClintock | * | 1 | |
| CA-21 | David G. Valadao | 1 | ||
| CA-25 | Stephen Knight | 1 | ||
| CA-39 | Edward R. Royce | 1 | ||
| CA-49 | Darrell E. Issa | 1 | ||
| CO-6 | Mike Coffman | 1 | 1 | |
| FL-15 | Dennis Ross | 1 | ||
| FL-17 | Thomas Rooney | 1 | ||
| FL-18 | Brian J. Mast | * | 1 | |
| FL-26 | Carlos Curbelo | 1 | 1 | |
| FL-27 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | 1 | ||
| ID-1 | Raui R. Labrador | * | 1 | |
| IL-6 | Peter J. Roskam | 1 | ||
| KA-2 | Lynn Jenkins | 1 | ||
| KY-4 | Thomas Massie | * | 1 | 1 |
| ME-2 | Bruce Poliquin | * | 1 | |
| MI-11 | David Trott | 1 | ||
| MI-3 | Justin Amash | * | 1 | |
| MN-3 | Erik Paulsen | 1 | ||
| MN-7 | Collin C. Peterson | 1 | 1 | |
| MS-3 | Greg Harper | 1 | ||
| NC-3 | Walter B. Jones | * | 1 | 1 |
| NJ-2 | Frank A. LoBiondo | Yes | 1 | |
| NJ-3 | Thomas MacArther | * | 1 | |
| NJ-4 | Christopher H. Smith | * | 1 | 1 |
| NJ-7 | Leonard Lance | Yes | 1 | |
| NY-2 | Peter T. King | * | 1 | |
| NY-11 | Daniel M. Donovan Jr. | * | ||
| NY-19 | John J. Faso | * | 1 | |
| NY-21 | Elise M. Stefanik | * | 1 | |
| NY-24 | John Katko | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| OK-1 | Jim Bridenstine | 1 | ||
| OH-10 | Michael R. Turner | * | 1 | 1 |
| OH-14 | David Joyce | * | 1 | 1 |
| PA-6 | Ryan A. Costello | Yes | 1 | |
| PA-7 | Patrick Meehan | Yes | 1 | |
| PA-8 | Brian K. Fitzpatrick | Yes | 1 | 1 |
| PA-9 | Bill Shuster | 1 | ||
| PA-15 | Charles W. Dent | * | 1 | |
| SC-1 | Mark Sanford | * | 1 | |
| SC-4 | Trey Gowdy | 1 | ||
| TN-2 | John J. Duncan, Jr | 1 | ||
| TX-2 | Ted Poe | 1 | ||
| TX-3 | Sam Johnson | 1 | ||
| TX-5 | Jeb Hensarling | 1 | ||
| TX-6 | Joe Barton | 1 | ||
| TX-21 | Lamar Smith | 1 | ||
| TX-23 | Will Hurd | * | 1 | 1 |
| VA-6 | Bob Goodlatte | 1 | ||
| VA-10 | Barbara Cornstock | ? | 1 | 1 |
| WA-3 | Jaime Herrera Beutler | * | 1 | 1 |
| WA-8 | David G. Reichert | Yes | 1 | |
| WI-1 | Paul Ryan | 1 |
Latest update Apr 15th
- For now, there is no need to show democrats
- A state is considered a 'Swing' state is the vote was +/- 5% for President Trump. Here '*' means the state is not 'Swing', but the senator has shown independence in another way.
- For now, all republicans running for re-election are added to the success count
- For now, a republican representative is added to the disaster count if
- He has voted at least once against the President
- He represents a democratic or swing district
- He is not running for re-election
Telling Moments
Senators Retiring
- AZ Jeff Flake
- TN Bob Corker
- UT Orrin Hatch
Senators Questioning Comey Being Fired
- AR John Boozman
- AK Lisa Murkowski
- AZ John McCain
- AZ Jeff Flake
- LA John Kennedy
- NC Richard Burr
- ND John Hoeven
- NE Ban Sassse
- OH Rob Portman
- SD John Thune
- TN Bob Corker
- WV Shelley Moore Capito
Senators Who Criticized Trump by Name Over Charlotteville
- AZ John McCain
- AZ Jeff Flake
- KS Jerry Moran
- FL Marco Rubio
- SC Bob Corker
- SC Tim Scott
Republican Representatives Retiring
- CA-39 Edward Royce
- CA-49 Darrell Issa
- FL-15 Dennis Ross
- FL-17 Thomas Rooney
- FL-27 Illeana Ros-Lehifnen
- KA-2 Lynn Jenkins
- MI-11 David Trott
- MS-3 Gregg Harper
- NJ-2 Frank LoBiondo
- NJ-11 Rodney Frelinghuysen
- OK-1 Jim Bridenstine
- PA-6 Ryan Costello
- PA-7 Patrick Meehan
- PA-9 Bill Shuster
- PA-15 Charles W. Dent
- SC-4 Trey Gowdy
- TN-2 John J. Duncan, Jr.
- TX-2 Ted Poe
- TX-3 Sam Johnson
- TX-5 Jeb Hensarling
- TX-6 Joe Barton
- TX-21 Lamar Smith
- VA-6 Bob Goodlatte
- WA-8 Dave Reichert
- WI-1 Paul Ryan
Representatives Who Voted Against AHCA
- AZ-5 Andy Biggs (New)
- CO-6 Mike Coffman
- FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
- KY-4 Thomas Massie
- NC-3 Walter B. Jones
- NJ-02 Frank A. LoBiondo
- NJ-04 Christopher H. Smith
- NJ-07 Leonard Lance
- NY-11 Dan Donovan
- NY-24 John Katko
- OH-10 Michael R. Turner (New)
- OH-14 David Joyce (New)
- PA-06 Ryan Costello
- PA-07 Patrick Meehan
- PA-08 Brian Fitzpatrick
- PA-15 Charlie Dent
- TX-23 Will Hurd (New)
- VA-10 Barbara Comstock
- WA-03 Jaime Hererra Beutler
- WA-08 Dave Reichert
Representatives Who Criticized Trump by Name Over Charlotteville
- CA-39 Ed Royce
- NJ-07 Leonard Lance
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