Post Post 1st Debate

It’s All About Temperament

So, it’s been over a week now, we are finally seeing some polls, and my wrists have healed after writing all those background post. So how’d it work out for them.

First, you have to realize is that these debates are not singular event. They are the campaign. The candidate’s goals are exactly the same. Following How to get Voters, the Gadfly Way, there are 5 strategies^[1], and from Just Who’s Voting for Who, 6 groups of voters. Though, I will not go into all the permutation. Instead I’ll focus on the major ones the candidates are using. But, be prepared, this can be a long list. Ready?

1. Clinton: Donald Trump is Temperamentally Unfit 
2. Trump: No I’m Not 

Yep that’s about it. But what about, Crooked Hillary, Four More Years of Obama, Turning out the Millennial. Heck Gadfly, you’re not even talking about the Wall.

OK, yes there are more strategies, and later on I will get to the, but until this is resolved, they don’t matter much. If Clinton can show Trump as Temperamentally Unfit, she reminds her Borings that Trump will make them unhappy, makes Trump's Hopeys unhappy, and most importantly makes Trump unacceptable to the Wait-n-Sees. That 3 out of 5 strategies.

For Trump, he can't let her do this. Here’s what I mean. From “Just Who’s Voting for Who”, I expect 35% will vote for Trump no matter what, and he can add up to 9% just by not acting crazy. The Wait-n-Sees will not even consider him until he get’s past that bar. Understand, around 44% of voters are looking for any excuse to vote for him.

Now, after that, yes there are a lot more issues to discuss, but, as you are about to see, we’ve got time.

Monday: The Debate

Now, all Donny has to do is keep his cool and not say anything crazy right. He does that, he gets at least 42%, maybe even 46% of the vote.

Of course, the other side of this is that if Clinton can get him to lose it, he goes bellow 44% maybe even down to 35%.

Well, how did he do. If you saw the SNL you already know and can skip ahead, but just in case.

He was off to a strong start. He talked about free trade, and may have scored a few points. I saw some body language that told a different story to me, but hey, if you want to vote for him, you could re-interpret that any way you need.

There was this sniffling thing, but he could just hold it together until the end, that would be a few cheap jokes at most.

Then Hillary mentioned he started with a 14 million dollar loan from daddy.

Trump after that^[2]

• Interrupted Clinton 51 times. (Because women love that). 
• Fought with Lester Holt, the moderator 
• Said the Fed was rigging the economy, so he would lose the election. 
• Said he's smart by not by not paying taxes (In other words, the rest of us are dumb) 
• Said he’ll pay to renovate the White House. “it’s a mess, and I’ll make it beautiful” 
• Said we should have stop-and-frisk, and African Americans will love me for it. He then argued with Lester Holt we he told Trump it was not constitutional.
• Criticized Clinton for being prepared 
• Blamed Clinton for birtherism (again) and “took credit for ending it” (again) 
• Insisted he was against the Iraq War. Just ask Hannity. They talked about, when no one else was watching 
• Said we should have taken Iraq’s oil (again) 
• Said Hillary shot Tupac 
• Started talking about nuclear weapons and began rambling incoherently.
• Said “Rosie O’Donnell deserved it” 
• Stated Clinton did not not stamina while looking like he was about to collapse.

As he became more and more unraveled, Trump talked about his temperament

CAMPAIGN STAFF: I have to be honest, Mr. Trump. You didn’t look good, kind of like you were, well, temperamental, but that’s OK. As long as you don't come off as a sore loser...

Trump stated his mic didn’t work and maybe it was on purpose. Bragged about not bringing up the Bill Clinton’s affair in front of Chelsea. Oh, and he totally won the debate.

CAMPAIGN STAFF: It’s still OK. Mr Trump. You just have to give a few teleprompter speeches, and we can move past this. We'll make a plan in the morning. What Mr. Trump? No I don’t know who Alicia Machado is?

Tuesday

Next morning, on Fox & Friends, he calls Alicia Macho fat (because women love it when you do that).

The rest of the day he brags about how noble he was not talking about Bill Clinton's affairs in front of Chelsea.

Oh, and he totally won the debate.

Wednesday

Said he saved Machado’s job by calling her fat and humiliating her.

Thursday

Salon reports Donald Trump broke Cuba embargo, knowingly conducted illegal business in Communist country

Washington Post reports Trump wanted to fire women who weren't pretty enough, say employees at his California golf club and Trump Foundation lacks the certification required for charities that solicit money

CAMPAIGN STAFF: OK. Mr. Trump you did not say anything insulting or vulgar today. Thank you. If you can just keep doing that, we can get past this damaging week

Friday

CAMPAIGN STAFF: Guess what Mr. Trump, you were right. There was something wrong with your mic. (Just for the people in the audience though. The 90 million watching from home could hear you just fine.) You get to sleep now, and this will be all over after the weekend.

That night Trump goes into a twitter rampage about Machado, including telling everyone to go looking for her sex tape. (The "sex tape" was only a few seconds in a reality TV show, but they did find a soft core movie, Trump was in).

Saturday

CAMPAIGN STAFF: Good morning Mr. Trump. No I haven’t check Twitter, yet. Anyway, good news. We have a leaked tape of Hillary Clinton insulting Bernie Sanders supporters. It was in February, and out of context, but we can work with it. We’ve arranged for you to speak tonight in Pennsylvania. Just read the nine sentences. Nothing more. We want this tape to be the story. No distractions. We really need this Mr. Trump.

Trump goes on a 25 minute rant where he:

• Accuses Hilary Clinton of cheating on Bill 
• Imitates Hillary being sick. (Because imitating the sick and disabled has worked so well for him before.) 
• Tells the crowd, on voting day, police "certain area" to stop "you know what I'm talking about"
• Oh, and he totally won the debate

That night the NY Times reports Donald Trump Tax Records Show He Could Have Avoided Taxes for Nearly Two Decades, The Times Found.

Sunday

Surrogates spend the day trying to convince everyone that Trump losing a billion dollars and not paying taxes makes him a “genius”. Believe it or not. This was a good day.

Monday

The Center for Public Integrity reports Trump’s organization did business with Iranian bank later linked to terrorism

CAMPAIGN STAFF: Don’t worry Mr. Trump. So, much is going on right now. You have an interview with the Retired American Warriors PAC. They like you, and you like them. Just show some of that sensitive charm you have.

Trump said soldiers get PTSD because “they can’t handle it”.

Still not that bad a day, believe it or not.

Tuesday: the VP Debates

CAMPAIGN STAFF: Thank God

Now remember. All Donald Trump had to do was convince everyone he was not temperamental.