The Final Stretch

Did Everything Change After Labor Day?

On Sep 23rd Cruz endorses Trump. Oct 7th, he wished could take it back.

I've been saying for a while now, that more voters are expected to pay attention after Labor Day. Does that mean what I posted in Just Who is Voting for Who changed? Could be. Let's take a look.

Clinton

Low and Natural 2-way Sep 17th 44%

                4-way          40%

High            2-way Oct  4th 48%

                4-way          44%

As you can Clinton reached the same High Point and here Low Point was her Natural Point. So far, Clinton has not had any true negative press (at least at a time not overshadowed by Trump's) She probably has not hit a low yet. The evidence right now is that her coalition has not changed.

Trump

Low     2-way Oct  7th 43%

        4-way          41%

Natural 2-way Sep 17th 44%

        4-way          40%

High    2-way Oct  2nd 45%

        4-way          41%

His High Point is also not out of line with before. As for his Low Point, you can see the effect the 1st Debate and following week. If you read my post about it (or just breathed air), you know what I mean.

But, given just how bad he was, the Low Point is not that low, 41% 4-way, versus the 35% before. This suggests that either he is still holding on to about half of his Hopeys or more voters for him entered the electorate after Labor Day. The latter is unlikely because Clinton is still holding on to her percentage of the electorate.

And of course, these polls do not include what effect the video of Trump's lewd comment's has done, but well get into this later.

Poor Johnny

Hey, did you know other parties beside Republican and Democrat? Well there are, and they're getting between 8% to 12% of the vote. So, if that starts to change, it could change the race. That change may be going on now.

First, there's a normal shift away from Third Party voting as the election gets closer. When that pollsters call six months before the election, it's easy to say I want Gary Johnson. But as it get closer you begin to realize that voting for Gary Johnson really means indirectly voting for Trump or Clinton.

But the second, problem is that we've had a chance to see Gary Johnson. (Oh yeah, Gary Johnson that's the "What's Aleppo?" guy). On Sep 28th. the night before the 1st Debate, he did a forum on Chris Matthew, and did not come off well. Some might say even "Sara Palinish".

If you saw this, your belief that Johnson was an alternative to Trump or Clinton just got tested. As for Jill Stein, she had throughout the election only been marginal and made equally disqualifying performances. Before, I had given 8% for the No-Way-No-Hows, the group that includes Third Party voters. Has that changed?

If you look at the yellow and green lines, there is a slow downfall in both lines, but not really a change after the Sep 28th, when Johnson made such a poor performance. So, far the No-Way-No-Hows are staying. It's hard to see in the chart, however, but Johnson did make a sudden dip to 6.5% these past couple of days. Like most of what's happening now, we just have to keep watching.

If their is a change in the No-Way- No-Hows, it should not go lower than 5%. Since May, the total of Johnson and Stein vote in a single poll, never went bellow that number. Just as important their all time high is about 12%. Here are the numbers.

        Highest Avg  Lowest Avg  Lowest Poll
Johnson       9%          5%          4%
Stein         5%          2%          1%

The Unspoken Winner

If you've been paying attention (OK start paying attention now), Clinton was always the favorite. Trump is clearly trapped in the Great Delusion of Politics and Clinton is not. And, the polls are showing this. On his best days he's only tied, and only once pulled marginally ahead. In fact, their “natural” points, 45 vs 44, makes Clinton the natural favorite.

However, there’s a big difference between winning and having won.This is why no one has been talking about her as the favorite. Trumpys can't believe it. Hopeys are still hoping. Borings don't want to become complacent. And Excitables want to insist they still have options.

At 45 vs 44, (their Natural Points),  Trump has about a 45% chance of being President. Even, when Clinton is +3% ahead, he has a about a 40% chance. Personally, I need his chances to go down to 30% before I can stop drinking and 20% before I can go off my meds.

The Demographic Appeal

At some point I should have mapped how political shows describe voters to the current mindsets. Well, I tried. I just could not find a poll aggregator that subdivided the answers demographically. Furthermore, most analysis cannot work from polls in this election. Instead, they use how votes were divided last election. I find this questionable because Clinton is not Obama and Trump is not Romney.

But, I've held off as long as I can. I'll just have to fudge it. This late in the game I don't need to go into all the categories, so let's just focus on the highlights.

Young Voters and Jebs (Clinton's Excitables)
Most young voters (18 to 30) are voting for Clinton, but their not excited about it. They actually want a candidate to offer something other than "I'm not Trump". (Yeah, how dare they.) However, there are also the Jebs out. They could vote for her, if she showed some willingness to take on Republican causes. She has the classic political dilemma. She can't make young voters and Jebs happy. From her past statements, she chose the young voters.

Whites and Non-Whites
Needless to say, Trump he has done a lot this year to alienate non-whites. But, just as important, educated whites are turned off by his behavior, especially women. (Hopeys and Wait-n-Sees) His dilemma is that Trumpys like the fact that he is "politically incorrect", so he can only walk back his comments so far. He's made outreach, which did more to calm Hopeys and Wait-n-Sees, but Clinton countered by pointing out his association to the Alt-Right.

Women
Democrats usually win the women vote, but they don't always win the educated white women vote. This is a significant chunk of Trumps Hopeys and the Wait-n-Sees. The fact that Trump might not win enough women voters has been a concern of Hopeys from the beginning.

Back to Trump

Trump's had a bad week. He failed to show temperament in the debate and compounded the mistake throughout the week. But, he's still holding at 43%. Shouldn't he be lower? What's going on?

Maybe there's not enough time
Trump did start at a high for him, 45%, and last time it took about 12 days to reach his bottom. It's only been 7.

He pulled some third party vote
Johnson's all time high is was around 9%. His last polling average was 6.5%. Trump could have pulled 3% from there, (I doubt any went from Stein to Trump)

We got used to him
This is the most disturbing possibility and was from the beginning. With each of Trump's downfalls, his bottom was slightly higher.

His 43% could be his new percentage of Trumpys. Well, at least before there was a video tape.

Trump's Potty Mouth

I'm sure I don't need to describe the video. I don't want to describe it. Go look it up for yourself. I'll just add that what he said was indefensible. Like I needed a reason to dislike Trump. Instead, I'll talk about why others have changed their mind.

Now imagine you're a Hopey. Trump does not seem to respect your beliefs or party. He behaves in ways that make you ashamed. However, you don't want Clinton to win, and just as important you want to keep the Senate and Supreme Court. Trump might not be what you want, but Clinton, you know you don't. The implication here is that you have to believe Trump can win.

Let's add that you know at least what we know. Clinton has always been the favorite, and Trump can't win until he convinces non-Trumpys he has the right temperament and appeals to more voters, especially women. Then, you see Trump have questionable temperament in front of 90 million viewers, and he compounds it with unnecessary juvenile antics throughout the week.

It's too late to change. Election Day is only a month away. This is who you need to win, so you hold on to hope that Trump can do better in the 2nd Debate. Then a video tape comes out that you know enrages most women in America.

I just described what every republican politician is feeling this weekend.

What makes this weekend different from previous Trump scandals is the way republican professionals are reacting. We can't know the impact on voters for a week, and the professionals don't have that kind of time. When they begun denouncing Trump and calling for him to step down, there was no turning back. The support Trump lost this weekend is lost for good.

On to the 2nd Debate

Tonight we could see the end of the Trump campaign. He might continue on to Election Day, but we all will know tonight as the night he lost. And then again, he might also save it.

But before we get to that, we need to talk about the latest Clinton "scandal", Fortunately, for her everyone is focused on Trump, but Wikileaks revealed more Clinton secrets. The biggest threat to her is that it might anger younger voters (Excitables). There's a lot, but most of it's mild, so I won't try to go through it here. Let's see how the debate goes.

I just want you to know that if you see Clinton making some appeals to young voters, this is why. And, just as likely she may bring up Russia preemptively. The Wikileaks info came from Russian hackers, and by pointing out Trump's bromance with Putin, she brings Wikileaks veracity into question. I also expect her to make constant appeals to women voters, of course.

And then there's Trump. We know that's what the night will be about. The political shows are going into painful detail as to what he needs to do, and how they don't expect him to do it. For me, I'm watching to see how he treats the audience. I seriously am wondering if he will yell at someone.

To Sum Up

I went over a lot here, and I may not have tied it together well so, let me attempt fix that.

• We are still waiting to see how low Trump can go. Will he go all the way to 35% or did he increase his Trumpys? Given that he is now in a war with the Republican Party, this could become the only vote he gets.
• Are No-Way-No-Hows about to shift to either candidate?
• Clinton still has to worry about keeping her Excitables motivated, and the recent Wikileaks reveal could hurt this.

You'll know more when I do.