When Can We Say Trump Will Not Be President?

Trump is Losing Big Time, But Has He Lost?

Trump has had the worst three weeks I've seen in a presidential election. He's lost two debates. As of now at least 9  women have come forward accusing him of sexual misconduct. Everything I know or heard about politics says he can't win continuing what he's doing. Especially with only 3 weeks left. So when can we view him as lost.

Never. I am never going to say that. I won't jinx it. I am not going to be convinced he's lost until Nov 8th. Maybe not until Nov 9th.

All hysterics aside, of course, he has a chance to win. I can tell you how much, 15% to 20%. In conventional terms, Trump currently needs to take 6 states away from Clinton and not lose any. (Note that's easier than it sounds. States tend to change together so changing 6 states is not 6 times as hard as changing 1.)

So, how does it look like the story play out?

Trump continues campaigning in a way that will only get about 40% of the vote. At the 3rd Debate, Trump stay true to form belligerent and temperamental . On election day, Clinton wins with over 300 electoral votes,

So, how would this change?

The 3rd Debate

This is the most likely point Trump could change the race. First, Trump will have a chance to bring out choice Wikileaks reveals. Clinton has probably prepared for this, but in the past has not always dealt with this situation well. Of course, Trump will have the same issue when he has to answer for his accusations of sexual misconduct.

Trumpys are so Shy

There is a prevailing theory put forth by Trump surrogates that polls are under reporting Trump support, the Shy Trump Voter theory. The argument is that negative attitude towards Trump cause voters to lie to pollster.

Of course, there are problem with this theory. First, looking at a Trump rally, tweets on twitter, internet forums, and just asking for help at Walmart, you don't get the impression that Trumpys are shy. Second, I can just as easily argue for Shy Clinton voters, republicans who don't want to see Trump elected but can't admit they're voting for Clinton. (In other words, Jebs). And finally, the mechanics of polling trying to account for demographics and turnout has a better chance to overweight the polls towards Trump. This is a fact in at least one case.

The combinations of arguments really say there is more uncertainty in the polls than reported. But, let's say the Shy Trump Voter theory is true. The biggest supporting evidence is a discrepancy between online polls and live interview polls. This could give Trump an extra 2% to 3%.

Low Turnout

Driving low turnout is the traditional way candidates win when they are down in the polls. Answering a poll is easier than going to vote, and if one side is motivated more than the other they can win even when down in the polls. Clinton has trouble being a motivating candidate, while Trump supporters sure are motivated.

This is the most reasonable explanation for Trump's negative campaigning. Negative campaigning tends to hurt both candidates, but he's already pushed as low as he can go, Negative campaigning can only hurt Clinton.

The problem is that it's one thing to rely on turnout when you're only a couple of points down. As of today, Clinton is up by 6% to 7%, Clinton also spent time beforehand to counter this. The reason you setup a "ground game", to turnout her vote. Finally, this strategy boxes Trump in and could limits what he can achieve in the 3rd Debate.

Bottom Line

Trump can still win. It's hard but he can do it. If he has a good enough showing in the 3rd Debate and there are Shy Trump voters, he could get close enough to Clinton that turnout decides the race. So, I"m still drinking until at least Oct 20th and probably after Nov 9th.