Is Now the Time to Use the H-Word
When I began, my first endeavor was to ask if Trump could be the next Hitler. After some deliberation, my answer was ‘not yet’. On January 6th, we saw the ‘yet’.
If you went back to my past analysis, I had pointed out that dictators do not become dictators alone. They need followers that will go to extreme measures to support their power. And those that went to Trump rallies and posted on twitter, did not show the willingness to do this. I mean could you really imagine a middle age man, beer in hand, screaming at his TV from his couch would become a revolutionary?
Well, some of them got off the couch.
What’s important here is to remember that the dangers are no
longer Temperamental Donny. Trump was like getting shot in the arm. First, we
had to stop the bleeding. But even when he is no longer the President, his lies
are still believed. We still have to get to the hospital, remove the bullet,
and heal the wound. (I could also talk reloading, improving aim, etc. killing
this metaphor as much as Trump’s been trying to kill democracy.)
About 74 million people voted for Trump in 2020. Our current standing military
is 1.3 million. So, it would only take less than 2% of those voters to be
radicalized and organized to produce an army larger than the US. Of course, I
am being more rhetorical than analytical. Not all the US military is in the US.
People who did not vote could be radicalized. Our military can be so small
because we are a peaceful country. And so on. The point is that there is more
than enough of a pool of potential “soldiers for the cause”.
What’s worse, for the first time in my life, I can see a detail narrative of
how American democracy could end.
We already see three groups forming. Let’s call them the MAGA Movement, MAGA Faction, and MAGA Appeasers. The MAGA Movement are the activists and terrorist. The MAGA Faction are the politicians and bureaucrats that support the MAGA Movement’s cause but not their methods. The MAGA Appeasers are politicians and bureaucrats who neither support the cause or method but tell us they are not the “real concern”. Note that motivation is irrelevant. Each of these groups will contain those that sincerely believe, and those that are cynically following their short-term interests. The MAGA Appeasers could even include some democrats.
There are a lot of historical examples of this. The IRA, PLO, and KKK are some good ones. Even BLM, ALF, and eco-terrorist show how this works. (However, there are some significant differences, but that is for another time.)
As the MAGA Faction starts to win primaries, they form a caucus within the Republican party, much as the Tea Party Caucus. (And yes, there is the case of a third party, but let’s keep it simple for now.) The MAGA Faction also wins local elections and eventually takes majority control of one of the States. Let’s say North Dakota where Trump won over 65% of the vote. (His highest was about 68% in West Virginia but for geographic reason North Dakota might be a better choice.) North Dakota becomes a haven for the MAGA Movement where they can organize and act with impunity.
While this is going on, someone releases a new ideology that captures the appeal of Trump but includes some ideas of governing. It does not have to make full logical sense. Mein Kouf was babbling nonsense. But, there is enough coherence for professional bureaucrats and politicians to organize and become competent. This also allows members of the MAGA groups to separate themselves from Trump, giving them rhetorical cover from his stupidity and for the movement to live past him. Now government and military professionals can be hired and recruited who then recruit or hire more. Bill Barr was an example of the latter.
Also, while this is happening the MAGA Movement grows and become more violent as the MAGA Faction and Appeasers prevent them from being held accountable. The result is that the many of us become afraid of them and believe the government won’t protect us. Much like the KKK.
Eventually, the MAGA Faction wins the majority of the Republican Party, the Republicans win the House, and the leader of the MAGA Faction becomes the Speaker. The President and Vice President are killed by an “accident” or a “lone assassin”. The MAGA Leader is now the legitimate head of government and declares martial law. (The heads of government were just killed after all.) Too many in government and military support the coup to stop it. Those who follow the MAGA ideology can be quite small. The rest follow out of fear or a misplaced sense of duty to institutions and Constitution. In a very lesser extent, Bob Mueller and Collin Powell show what this looks like.
Soon, the government is “cleansed” of those who could object, such as the Appeaser and those of misplaced duty. Meanwhile those in the MAGA Movement become and unofficial para-military organization that terrorizes the rest of us. Like the Nazi SS.
Of course, this is all a hypothetical and far from inevitable, and most importantly preventable. And clearly not something that is imminent. What I wish to point out, however, is that this long-winded scenario does not require Trump. We already see the seeds of what could become the MAGA movement in the Proud Boys and the Boogaloo. A Qanoon believer has been elected to congress. Voices of appeasement are regularly heard on Fox News. The ominous ‘yet’ is happening now. This is the real legacy of Trump.
So far, we’ve only been spared by incompetence. Trump pointed a gun at us. He pulled the trigger only to find the safety was still on. He tried again but drop the gun on is foot. He picked it up and pulled to trigger, but he forgot to load the gun. All the while, we were too busy laughing to realize he had attempted murder three times. (I warned you that I was going to run this metaphor to the ground.)
