Handel Won Because of Republican Culture, Not Politics
I’ve avoided talking about Democrats vs Republicans so far, but the recent special election between Ossoff and Handel brings up one of my pet theories. Of the elections coverage, I noticed most the difference in how they campaigned. Ossoff talked about the economy and healthcare while the Democrats nationalized the election. Handle basically said, “don’t let the outsider win’. This points to a conclusion I have long had that Republicans win elections by a reliance on culture, not governance.There's a much longer and more evidence-based discussion to have on the cultural difference between parties, but for now, let me indulge in more speculation than I usually do. My informed opinion is that Republican's have a stronger Not Invented Here stance. In other words, Republican voters are open to progressive ideas such as Medicare Part D, increased minimum wage, etc., but only if proposed by a Republican and not called progressive.
This is not meant as I slight against Republicans. Hyper tribalism can form the virtues of loyalty and solidarity. However, I will say that this can be bad for governance because politicians can skirt their incompetence and corruption relying on the loyalty of their voters. Our democracy requires cynicism to be healthy. Again, this is a larger discussion that I can't go into now.
If I'm right, Democrats might be better served by subtlety than intensity. In the last four House special elections, the other three as well or better, though the DNC paid less attention to them.
| Congressional District | 2017 Margin Win | 2016 Rep Margin Win | 2016 vs 2017 Rep | Trump Margin Win | Trump vs 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas 4th | 7 | 30 | 23 | 27 | 20 |
| South Carolina 5th | 3 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 16 |
| Montana | 6 | 14 | 8 | 21 | 15 |
| Georgia 6th | 4 | 23 | 19 | 1.5 | -2.5 |
Looking over the years where Democrats were successful, you could argue that they were more Republican failures. In 2006, Democrats won the House while Republican congressmen were embroiled in scandal. Also, this was post-Katrina, when G.W. Bush's support fell away. 2008 Democrats won massive majorities just after the Financial Crisis. In 2012, Obama won after Romney's 47% remark, but the House remained in control of the Republicans.
If there is a silver lining to the Ossoff's loss, it is that Republicans are less motivated to steer away from the course they are on. As is, they are standing by, as their President goes deeper into scandal and are about to pass a highly unpopular health care bill. A Democratic win may have warned them in time to correct themselves. As is, if they need to correct in the future, it will be too late.
Instead, protests, money, and endorsements may only be keeping Republicans motivated. And, yes, that also means Democrats can't run against Trump. The message being: "Democrats. Just shut up and vote."
The better strategy would be to run everywhere and keep your core voters motivated making as little noise as possible. Let Trump and Republicans create the arguments against themselves because only they can. They've been doing a pretty good job so far.
