The Impeachment Count - Part 2

Some Interesting Cases

Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins

You would think that Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski belong in Tier 1. They have often been vocal critics of Trump and have the most political independence from him. They also are not up for re-election. However, they aren’t compelled to vote against him either, unlike Susan Collins. So, I really don’t consider them higher than Tier 2.

Cory Gardner

This senator of Colorado is one of the most endangered ones in 2020, and who would suffer the most consequences by supporting Trump. Yet, that is not how he has been acting. A likely reason is that in this regard, the Trump team knows what they are doing. With atypical discretion, they have applied every carrot and stick to keep Gardner from defecting.

Richard Burr

Senator Burr was the Republican leader in the Senate investigation of Russian involvement in the 2016 election. That and the numbers would suggest he would at least be a voice of concern. However, so far, crickets. Either he is more partisan than he presented himself, or he is trying to be a principled juror and just not say anything.

Tim Scott

Talk about a mixed record. As the only black Republican senator, he has more than once criticized Trump’s behavior when it comes to racism. However, as representing a pro-Trump state, South Carolina, he has been more equivocal with the impeachment. Consider Tim Scott’s response to Trump’s lynching tweet.

Ron Johnson

OK, here’s one potentially for the history books. Again, by the numbers, Ron Johnson should be at least willing to go along with voting against Trump. However, there is a catch. He may be implicated in the crime, and reportedly talked to Ukraine officials while this was going on. At the least, he knew about the transgression. At worst, he participated.

Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul

What these three have in common is that they all have at some time been exceptionally critical of Trump and have, in turn, become hypocritical and sycophantic supporters of him. And, of note, they all three need Republican partisan support from their states. Rubio perhaps could change this, but at least that is the case for him now.

But more importantly, they all had, before Trump, voice ideologies that should make them his staunch critics. And they have good reason to hate him. Voting to remove Trump may not be the most politically smart move, but there would be a personal upside. Yes, it would be seen as cynical and disloyal by Republicans, but that would not be so new for them. And none are up for re-election in 2020. Heck, if they break soon enough, they could all run for President again in 2024.

I would not say turning on Trump is likely, but it’s not zero.

Mitch McConnell

Of course, Moscow Mitch is the most relevant senator in this process. The conventional wisdom is that he would want to get the trial over with as soon as possible, and that certainly is what he has been signaling. However, let’s consider him delaying the trial.

First, I don’t buy into the idea that quicker is necessarily better for either party. For all the arguments for sooner, I can think of one for later. Yes, too long is bad, but that could leave months or even a year of post-impeachment anger. In the end, it’s all really a guess. And there is a potential upside for waiting.

Consider the case of Susan Collins. Current polling says she will lose the 2020 election if she votes to exonerate. However, if she votes to remove, she is likely to get a primary challenger. And that pretty much sums up the case for any other senator where this vote is a tough choice.

But, what if the vote were after March next year when it would be too late for a primary challenger to file. Note that the bigger threat of voting against Trump is in the primary, not the general election. So, if the vote was late enough Collins could vote as she needed with no primary threat. And I expect other senators have a similar case.

More so, what if Moscow Mitch waited until after the election. If Trump has lost, then the vote will have limited consequences. If Trump won, the Senate could vote to remove him if they wished. Then they have the best of both worlds. With a full two years until the election, there would be a reduced backlash from Trump supporters, and the new President would be the much more acceptable Pence.

Yeah, I don’t see these scenarios as likely. But, again, not impossible.

The Impeachment Count - Part 1

The Tracking Republican Senators

I’m out of time.

I’ve owed you a track of Congress vs the President for over a year now, so with impeachment looming here, it is. A new button, Impeachment Count.

So, first, some of the ground rules.

This time we're counting for removal from office and just removal from office.
Before, I was seeing if Congress would keep the President from being “threatening”. That’s no longer a question since 2018. The House will block him. The Senate will block the House. Trump will try to be a dictator but will fail due to his own incompetence.

There is also no doubt as to will he be impeached. He will. The moment the Speaker announced the inquiry, impeachment was certain. She would not have done it if there were not the votes. And not voting now would be political malpractice. So, the only question is when.

Therefore, the only question left is whether there are enough, if any, Republican senators that would remove the President from office.

However, Speaker Pelosi’s goal is not removal.
The Speaker has to delicately time the vote. She has to give enough time that all the evidence that can be found is found, but not too long as so the inquiry can be made to look only political. Also, until the Impeachment vote happens, she (and by extension the Democrats) are in control. After that, Moscow Mitch is. Reason enough for her to keep the inquiry going as long as she can.

Given that she still is unlikely to get enough Republicans to vote for removal by that time. However, what she can do is make a vote against removal look so craven, she ensures control of the House, damages Trump’s re-election, and threatens Republican control of the Senate.

That’s the real battle here.

It’s 1, 4, 20, or 27
Remove of a president requires 67 senatorial votes. That means 20 Republicans in addition to the 47 Democrats. However, there is one vote that matters more than the others, Majority Leader Mitch McConnel.

What Moscow Mitch could do is unclear, but he could and is capable of is using whatever procedural trick is available. (Remember Merit Garland?) By his statement, the senate is constitutionally required to have a trial and a vote. However, "how long you're on [the trial] is a whole different matter." In other words, he could choose to have the vote 1 hour after the impeachment, leaving no time for any evidence being brought to the public. Or, he could delay the vote until after the election. My understanding is that it would have to happen while the current Senate is in power, but that would still leave about 3 months after we know who the next president is.

My usual measure as to if Moscow Mitch turns against Trump is that over half of the Republican senators want it. That number is 27.

However, removal is not the only adverse outcome for Republicans and the President. A clearly craven vote by senators would be electorally dangerous, especially if it looks bipartisan. That could mean as little as 4 Republicans, making the vote a straight majority, would cause harm.

Tiers of Desperation
Again, I must remind you how bad it would be for a Republican senator to vote for removal. At the very least, they will be viewed as disloyal, and their voters will be unmotivated. Effectively, all power would be ceded to the Democrats at the next election.

More likely, after a time, those senators will be the targets of political operatives and pundits who still believe the President should have been protected. Under the best scenarios, that would be over half of registered Republicans. And if the Trump remains, he’s made clear that will use all power and influence he has to attack those that voted against him, even at risk of Republican control of the Senate.

Before you judge them, honestly, ask yourself. What would you be willing to do if it risked your job? Not only your career but everything you worked for because that is what likely will happen. Democrats will gain all the power, pick the judges, increase the size of government, take away tax cuts to the rich, and add regulations.

Most would not show “political courage” under those conditions, any form of rationalization would be welcome, and every instinct would be to duck your head and hope it all just goes away.

Times would have to be desperate indeed. Meaning, only expect senators to vote for removal if:

• Their voters would punish them.
• They are safe and want to.

So who are they:

Tier 1 – Those who will vote against Trump regardless.
These would be senators who have the conviction that the President should be removed and either will suffer no consequence or would be punished for supporting Trump. They are willing to vote even if Trump is not removed.

Tier 2 – Those who will lead the charge.
These are the senators who need to know that he will be removed if they vote against him but are willing to tell others this. There needs there to be 20, but they are the first to say they are part of the 20.

Tier 3 – Those that say “count me in.”
These are the senators who will happily vote to remove Trump, but only if it will succeed and won’t take the lead.

Tier 4 – The wildcards
These are the senators who have a mixed record. There are good reasons for them to oppose the President, and at least one time they have. However, they have also shown unusual support for him at others. In some cases, they reached the point of being political opportunists.

Where to find them
So how do we look for these mysterious senators?

Retiring and when is their re-election.
First, I would look at retiring senators, of which there are currently four. These have the best option of “voting their conscious” and can think more about how their acts will be viewed in history. Also, and sadly, most are retiring due to health concerns, so even factors that I mentioned in Speaker Ryan’s retirement are not an issue.

Though, oddly, only one, Lamar, has voice anything negative towards Trump’s behavior. The others, in fact, have criticized the inquiry. So, those three could be “true believers” or so partisan to still excuse these acts. However, at the very least, I have to believe any senator retiring would vote for removal if enough other senators do.

Then, we can look at those up for re-election in 2024. A lot can happen in 4 years, and that is plenty of time to survive past any political harm a vote against their party would do. However, that group is small, 6, and since they were elected when Trump had the most influence, 2018, only one, Mitt Romney, has spoken against the President. Others, such as Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, have been practically sycophantic towards Trump.

Then, there is 2022. 2 years is not as good as 4 years, but that does give a little time. Not enough to free them of political worry, but it does help.

And, of course, those up in 2020 are going to be the ones most driven by electoral concerns.

Their States
As would be no surprise, the state a senator represents has a lot to do with how they vote. In fact, senators should vote for who they represent. Thus, we look at whether a state is anti-trump, pro-trump, safe, or “swingy”.

Note that the support of a state is not as simple as whether it is blue, red, or purple. What matters is the senator’s relationship with his state. So, despite Utah being a very red state, their view of Trump is at best look warm and have better regard for Mitt Romney, making it a safe state.

Also, there are two ways a state can be purple. The populace could have a mix of left and right views or, more likely, they could have staunch, but equal, areas of red and blue. In the first case, the state is more likely to waiver in support of Trump, if they have not done so already. However, in the second case, that can make it harder for the senator to oppose Trump because he more desperately needs to turn out those red areas.

What I would look at first is whether Trump won that state in 2016. If they did not want him, then it’s unlikely they changed their minds. As you might expect, there are only 2 states with Republican senators: Colorado and Maine. After that, I would look at which states have a Democratic and Republican senator as it’s a strong indication of a bipartisan populace. And finally, there is the state’s approval/disapproval rating of Trump. (Unfortunately, state by state polls on the impeachment question are barely available and problematic.)

The more complicated case is Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump won both of those (starting our national nightmare), but they are still blue states with low approvals of him. Have they now rejected Trump, or could their Republican senators rely on pro-Trump areas?

What they’re saying.
Of course, there is what the senators are actually saying about impeachment. Short answer. Not much.

Even Mitt Romney, the most vocal critic, has not given more than “it would be bad if”. Then again, what should they say? It would be improper for them, even Democratic senators, to prejudice themselves before there is a trial.

That doesn’t stop us from “reading the tea leaves”, however.

So, how are we doing?
Not good. As of now, I only have 16 in the first 3 tiers, which means we need some wild cards to reach the 20. But, hey, I’ve been saying for a while not that impeachment in the first term was not going to happen and would if there was a second. I’d like to be wrong, but it still doesn’t look like it.

What could change?

The Polls Of Course
Given that reelection is what most senators are worried about, approval on removal and/or Trump could shift them. However, that’s problematic because it’s not the national polls that matter. It’s the state polls, and the states almost all of these senators represent are the least likely to shift.

The Growth of Independents
There is a way the polls are misleading. As I pointed out in Why Democrats Feel They’re Always Losing, determining what party a person belongs to is not straightforward. Depending on how the question is asked, the pollster could be talking to an “independent” that just yesterday was a Republican. In other words, if a Republican begins to believe Trump should be removed, then they are probably considering no longer being a Republican.

If we see the overall numbers growing towards impeachment but not among Republicans, then that is what is going on. 

Retirements
The easiest way for a senator to avoid a horrid election and still vote for removal is just not run. So, any senators announcing retirement now immediately becomes a candidate. I would also keep watch on those senators already retiring but still supporting the President.

Trump Himself
Given who we are talking about, the person most pushing senators to remove him is him. Right now, senators are trying more subtle messages: the process is wrong, it’s bad but not illegal, it’s illegal but no worth removal, etc. However, all those say Trump did something wrong, and he’ll have none of that. Anything short of out and out exoneration is viewed by him as disloyal.

And that’s to start. Trump is capable of doing more impeachable acts or just stupid, dangerous ones, like retreating from Syria. And then there is the economy. I know you want to call the senators cowardly rats, so guess what rats do on sinking ships.

Shoes Ready to Drop

The Stuff That’s Just a Little Crazy, But Not So Much

As we march along the path of craziest, it’s time to let you know my outrageous, though possible, predictions. In the past, I tried to be somewhat careful. However, a few have been rattling in my head, that I would not say is likely to happen, yet I would not be surprised if the did. So, let me get these out now before they do happen, and you miss how much of a genius I am.

Now, just to say again, none of these are likely. Just credible.

Melania Divorces Trump

OK, you might not find this that outrageous. Noting that I have no basis to judge anyone’s relationship, you must admit that Donald and Melania do not appear to be a happy couple. They look like they’re separated in fact. And who can blame her? Donald well-known behavior would justify any divorce, and she might know of more. Even if that was their relationship, Melania might not be OK with the amount of humiliation she must feel.

Still, Presidents with unhappy marriages is not new. In fact, it’s common. However, most wives, by the time their husband becomes President, are adjusted to his misogynistic and philandering behavior. When revealed, they already made the bargains of political life and are ready to deal with it as a politician’s wife.

Then again, it’s not that Melania didn’t know the scrutiny and perils of winning. More likely she was more aware than those around.

I would not be the first to suggest that Trump did not expect to be President. In fact, the book, Fire and Fury, Melania reached a point the campaign where Trump made his wife “a solemn guarantee: There was simply no way he would win”. This is a rumor, of course, and Fire and Fury is in parts a questionable source, but if Trump does decide to run in 2020, she might not want to go through that again.

Putin Releases the Pee Tape

            OK, maybe not the pee tape. However, if Putin does have compromising information about Trump, he might, one day, find his purposes served better by releasing it. This would not be that unusual. Once an asset is no longer useful, an intelligence agency might ‘let him be caught’ if it provides some benefits. Agencies often don’t because, besides the assets, they also want to protect how they obtained the information (sources and means) and hid what they know.

However, Russian interference in our election did not follow those conventions. Putin’s goal was not to find secrets about us that give him a diplomatic, economic, or military advantage. It was to bring distrust into American Democracy. So, any information obtained was released in full. There was not as much concern about finding out that they interfered because knowing that democracy can be tampered with does just as much damaged. By that reasoning, finding out that our President was always under Russian control would bring all our future elections into question.

There are many ways Trump’s usefulness will end. When or just before Putin may want to show how smart he has been and how stupid we were.

Pence Turns On Trump

Here’s the thinking. Before being President Trump’s Vice President, Pence’s career was over. His flip-flop on a controversial homophobic bill made him enemies on both sides. He was unlikely to win another term as governor and was probably headed off to where all failed politicians go: punditry and lobbying. Becoming Trump’s Vice President turned this all around. All he had to do was engage in the most insincere string of lies, I have ever seen a politician do. (And that’s saying a lot. And yes, even more than Ted Cruz.)

However, you’d have to be a fool to believe that Trump’s Sycophant and Chief was doing any more than a show of perfunctory loyalty. Pence’s actions only serve himself. So, why not be President.

Not an unusual thought. The typical path would be for Pence to be a loyal advocate for the President and the Republican party. Then when President Trump is done, run as the presumptive nominee. But, we aren’t in normal times. That Pence could win the Presidency in an election is unlikely. Even if the Trump Presidency is not a failure, he has no real bona-fides with Trump’s base, and I would strongly argue he could not win without them. However, what if Trump were not to finish his term?

Well, then we have President Pence. As Ford after Nixon showed, his time would be short, but he would be President. Far more than a governor most known for arguing over who could use a bathroom.

Now, this does assume Pence is self-aware, a lot to ask of a politician. And, while the mechanics are clear, they do require preparation. Either Pence needs to convince the Cabinet to invoke the 25^th Amendment or the Congress to convict on Impeachment. Though, this is all within Pence’s skill set.