Monday, February 27, 2017

How We Got Here - Post 5

The Gilded Age: The Origin of the Cult of Wealth

During the Gilded Age, a new "branch" of government formed, big business

After the ending of Reconstruction in 1877, politics started to become familiar with the modern day. State's Rights is ensconced in the Constitution and will never go away, but State's Rights being a preeminent idea had ended. As did slavery. Jim Crow laws would recover some of the political entitlement to white southerners, but never again to that before the Civil War. Instead, a new "branch" of government would be added to the informal five. Big business was now added with the executive, legislative, judicial, press, and states as a power in our democracy. This time would become known as the Gilded Age.[1]

The 2nd Industrial Revolution had begun and with it, a rise in concentrated wealth American had not yet seen. The wealthy of this era we still know today: Carnage, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, etc. And as always wealthy men become powerful men. Not that this was new to America. However, unlike such men as Washington, Jefferson, and Jackson, these men never sought public office, and their wealth was national in nature. Not plantations, but industrial monopolies that reached across the country: oil, steel, railroad, etc.[2]

This meant that these titans of industry or, as we would come to know them, robber barons had federal power with none of the restraints of democracy. In other words, they were becoming an aristocracy. And worse, they began to embrace it.

Some did rebuff this idea such as Andrew Carnegie, who preferred to see himself as a self-made man. Many of who I'm talking about also preferred that image. (Some even deserved it.) However, the image presented was contradictory. The wealthy insisted that they had obtained their wealth through talent and luck (even those that inherited it), but at the same time, they insisted they were special and deserved special privileges.

Like all aristocracies, they needed an ideology to justify their superiority. America was founded on the ideas of liberalism and that men were created equal, the very rejection of aristocracy. So, the new ideology of the rich, what I like to call the Cult of Wealth, had to conform to these frameworks. Fortunately, for them, the founding fathers only proposed a political ideology, and the robber barons did not need to talk politics. Instead, they just needed the government to not interfere. Laissez-faire economics is what they proposed.

More importantly, they needed to establish themselves morally. Here they had help from the Puritans, who argued wealth was a sign of faith and poverty was a result of sin. Also, helped was the longstanding American view that a man controlled his own fate, including his economic one. Helping the poor could be seen as enabling and leading them to sin. Baptist Minister Russell Conwell perhaps best exemplified this view. In 1869, he started his "Acres of Diamonds" sermons, out and out equating success with godliness and poverty with sin. Later, even with its calls of noblesse oblige and arguments against inheritance, Andrew Carnegie's "Godspell of Wealth" glorified success and warned against encouraging "the slothful, the drunken, the unworthy".

But the Cult of Wealth went further. This was the 2nd Industrial Revolution, an age of science. Charles Darwin had published Origin of Species in 1859, and it had reached the shores of America to be perverted into Social Darwinism. The successful had proved them as "fitter". Success proved an inherent superior that for the good of American society needed flourish. Not only did this justify selfish arrogance, but brought forth disturbing ideas of racism.

However, there was a reason they called this the Gilded Age, as in only covered by a thin layer of gold. The idea of the self-made man is part of the origin of American, and this period did include some of its best examples. But a man unlucky in circumstances or birth, soon found those opportunities lessening. Monopolies were forming while factories were demanding more hours at lesser pay. To the man struggling to feed his family, his poverty was not the result of sin, but the greed of the rich.

The Gilded Age was as much a time of economic turmoil as it was expansion. What later would be called the Long Depression began with the Panic of 1873 and continued until the end of the 19th century.[3] Defined by cycles of booms, where a few would gain wealth and most would not, and busts, where the wealthy kept wealth and the rest lost, Laissez-faire economics was seen as widening the wealth gap and removed opportunities.

A few put down the Wealth of Nations and picked up the Communist Manifesto. Now socialism was too far for most Americans and has never been little more than a fringe movement. However, that did not stop big business and politicians from calling any deviation from Laissez-faire economics, socialism. Fear of socialism would be a commonly used political rhetoric up until, well, today.

Many Americans, however, would accept a compromise. Gaining wealth and property was fine, even encouraged, but someone did have to step in to constrain capitalism's excesses. The seeds of American Progressivism was planted.

This was the beginning of American class warfare.

But, politicians of the Gilded Age remained on the side of business. Both parties mostly argued over who could serve business better. Republicans who controlled most of the Presidency during this period promoted and took credit for the great expansion. The democrats who controlled the House were dominated by the Bourbon Democrats who were strongly pro-business through economic liberalism.

Instead, the progressive politicians were factions in each party and focused on fighting government corruption. The republican factions of Mugwumps and Half-Breeds fought the Stalwarts over government corruption in the form of the spoil system. Bourbon Democrats opposed local corruption in the form of city bosses and supported such reforms as Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883.

Instead, the fight against the robber barons birthed the first union, the Knights of Labor, later to be replaced by American Federation of Labor. Multiple strikes would happen, often met with violence from their employers, and the government always took the side of business.

All eras ends as did the Gilded Age. The three elements of the Cult of Wealth would eventually be discredited as well. Laissez-faire economics would be blamed for the Great Depressions.[4] Poverty as a result of sin would be undone by the rise of Progressivism, and Social Darwinism would become associated with a guy named Hitler.[5]

But, don't be fooled. These ideas never really died. They just got renamed and covered with new gilding. Laissez-faire economics became supply-side and trickle-down economics. Prosperity theology and cries of welfare queens practically quote the "Acre of Diamonds". And those waving their copies of Atlas Shrugged and praising "the job creators" can become Social Darwinist with a slight extension of logic.

Now, those advocating such views have focused on the positive and would surely point out how they are different. You could fairly say I am being biased. Don't worry. I will soon be showing the darker side of Progressivism. For those, who evangelize the Cult of Wealth's latest version, be warned and tread lightly. There are pieces of villainy waiting to be uncovered. Where do you think the infamous "47 percent" speech came from.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Counting the Congress

How I Count Senators to Evaluate President Trump

In Trump Watch, I outline three scenarios all of which depend on whether the Trump Presidency is perceived a success of a disaster. And, as I already pointed out, the only objective measure in the short term is how many legislators are willing to take action either for or against him.
The current count is 52 Success / 61 Disaster
So, now let's look into that.

The theory is that failures or successes of the Trump administration will eventually have electoral consequences to a congressman, which will, in turn, affect support. FiveThityEight is, in fact, tracking this through their votes. They call this the Trump Score, but to avoid confusion I will call it the 538 Trump Score. This is good info, and probably better than what I can give you. However, it does have a problem for our purposes. It does not come down to a single score.

Fortunately, (with some effort) I figured out how to export the numbers to a spreadsheet. For now, I'm looking at the Trump Plus-Minus, which is their predicted score minus the actual score. Currently, their average and median are almost 0 for all cases indicating, overall congressman are voting as predicted. However, that is only because both sides are highly partisan and voting as a block. And, so each side has deviated from their predicted score by about the same amount. I've detailed the numbers, here.

This in itself is a good measure, especially for telling if partisan solidarity is holding. However, it’s hard to see if Congress would be willing to take his lead or proactively take action against him.

There are his approval and favorability ratings. Certainly, these values are a precursor to his success or disaster. Why I'm not using them yet is the I'm not finding numbers I'm comfortable with, mostly because it's too soon. In particular, I've not been able to find aggregates broken by party affiliation or, better, states. Without this, I'm vulnerable to my being mislead like many where during the elections. However, as you will soon see, I will use them to validate or invalidate certain assumptions. More importantly, if I can get good numbers, I can revisit the mindsets I used before (re-evaluated by what we learned from the election).

So, we're back to counting congressman. The goal here is to get an estimate of the number of congressmen that are ‘independent' enough to go against their party. Mostly, because I can’t realistically count representatives I am sticking to senators. My defense for this is that the goals of the Senate and House are currently aligned so the Senate can be used as a proxy for the House.

Let’s consider the following scenario. The Senate Select Committee for Intelligence has ordered the White House not to destroy documents. What if in a couple of weeks, the Senate discovered documents were destroyed. We now have the same situation that harmed Nixon and Clinton. Would the Senate consider impeachment?

Unless McConnell and Ryan could get the votes, they would not even call for a vote. So, assuming President Trump's popularity has not changed, how many votes could the get?

That would be the Disaster Count.

Now, let’s take this another way. What if President Trump made a proposal that is consistent with his promises, but electorally dangerous to senators? For example, a large tax on imported goods. For now, assume the bill is well written and the President is able to articulate a good economic argument. (Can you believe I have to say that.) How many senators would fight for such a bill?

As before McConnell and Ryan would need to know they could get the votes to let there be a vote.

That would be the Success Count

So, the counts are derived by deciding how many senators are ‘countable' or not and then deciding which would support a ‘success' of ‘disaster'. The rest or 'base' is added to the counts for each scenario.

To be ‘countable’
  • The senator represents swing state or a state different from his party. As most do, this is defined by the vote margin for or against President Trump 
  • Or, the senator has demonstrated recent actions that show independence from the President and the Party. I will have to change this over time. So far, I'm just adding republicans with a 538 Trump Score bellow 100%. 
13 republican and 17 democratic senators represent swing states or states opposite their party.

Currently, only 4 republican senators have a 538 Trump Score bellow 100%. Only Rand Paul meets this criterion and has not already been listed as ‘countable'.

38 republicans and 31 democratic senators are NOT 'countable' and are the 'base'

You may have noticed that the scores are higher for both than my eyeball guess in the post, Trump Watch. I decided not to attempt the most conservative measure because I felt comfortable making the following assumptions.

As long as Presidents Trump’s popularity remains bellow 50%, and democrats solidarity remains strong, we can assume:
  1. All swing states can be considered democratic states 
  2. Republican senators not up for election in 2018 are free to be independent. This is reasonable because politicians have to have faith in their ability to campaign and can recover if there is enough time. 
  3. Even democratic senators in republican states will remain loyal to the democratic party. This is reasonable because of primary threats that are realistic under the current fervor. 
I have all this in detail, here. In addition, there is now a link on the top toolbar ‘Congress Count'. Please note that I cannot update these values regularly so pay attention to “Last updated ...

You may ask, could a President be successful and have a low Success Count. Yes, since there have been successful presidents without help from Congress. Theodore Roosevelt and Harry Truman are good examples.

And could not a disaster happen before the Disaster Count shows it? Unfortunately, yes, especially with international scenarios.

Both these are why I have to continually make adjustments as events unfold. There’s my cowardly qualification. You’ve been warned.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Many are Saying... Trump, Bannon, and Putin are in a Love Triangle

Trump loves Putin. Putin love Bannon. Bannon loves Trump,

Many people are saying that Trump, Bannon, and Putin are in a love triangle. As we already know, Trump was born in Russia and is being used against his will as a puppet president. Despite his best effort, Trump became president and is now totally under Putin's thumb. What he did not expect was that he would fall in love with the Russian spymaster.

In hindsight, it was not that strange. Many of us fall in love to fill the void left by our parents, so, if you remember Trump's father, it was inevitable that Trump would fall for the virile, abusive, and authoritarian figure which is Putin. Putin was cruel, threatening, and strong drawing Trump into his own "fifty shades of gray" fantasy. Of course, he could never have his passions fulfilled physically. His love is literally from afar, but that forbidden nature only draws him in further.

Being the manipulator that Putin is, he had no compulsion from using Trump's feeling for his own goals. Through secret communications, he has nourished Trump's adoration knowing Trump will do anything just to hear a kind word.

Which is a tragedy for Bannon. Bannon had no expectation that he would ever find love again in his life. After three failed marriages, he was never able to find a woman that appreciated the "tough" love he had to give. Little did he suspect that would change on a Breitbart forum. He did not know that "ShirtlessCuddlyBear" was actually Putin trying to secretly recruit him, but over time they found something more.

They had so much in common. Their secret desire to be Hitler. Their wish to conquer the world. That they both chose bear costumes at the last furry conventions. Their fascination with Pokemon. And most of all their disappointment that Gru turned good at the end of Despicable Me. (Bannon's favorite minion is Stuart and Putin's is Kevin. Both think Bob is a wuss.)

But Bannon soon tired of their flirtations. He just didn't feel the chemistry Putin did. There was no pizazz. But, Putin could not just let Bannon out of his life, so in a desperate effort to keep contact with Bannon, he asked him to work as one of his spies. He needed Bannon to replace Manafort as Trump's handler.

Bannon agreed with hesitation, but he was an ambitious man who could see the potential. Plus, he was fond of Putin and found it a way to distance himself and spare Putin's feelings what. What Bannon did not anticipate was the feeling he would have for Trump.

Bannon discovered that he did not want a new world order. He did not need to "destroy the state". These were all just surrogates for what he really wanted, a bad boy. Yes, Putin was a bad boy, perhaps the baddest, but like many that say "they want a bad boy", they really want a fake bad boy. Someone who is impulsive, wild, but not a true threat. Someone who "they can change". Bannon's heart did not stand a chance when he met Trump. He fell hard.

This is their tangled love triangle. Putin must secretly send love letters to Trump, but he is really writing his feelings for Bannon. Since they cannot go directly to the president, Bannon must deliver them wishing they could be his words to Trump. And then Bannon must suffer and watch as Trump pines for Putin.

They've each tried to handle the frustration in their own way. President Trump indulges his shopping addiction by sending Putin secret caches of velvet track suits. Putin invades a country or plans someone's assassination, while Bannon strings along Reince Priebus.

But, this is cannot go on. Right, now their relationships are constrained by distance, but one day they will all be in the same room and have to confront their feelings. And then, what happens when Kellyanne Conway reveals her own secret yearnings?

Friday, February 10, 2017

Trump Watch

When Do We Know It’s Bad?

Will the Trump Presidency be a disaster, success, or threat?


I'm still not ready. I've done warm baths, therapy, distracting myself with video games, and drinking (a whole lot of drinking), and I'm still not ready to bear President Trump. I'm getting there. I don't avert my eyes from the TV when he's on anymore. (Though many close to me still do.) I even read some the news. I was just hoping I had more time, but everything is moving too fast.

Let's face it. You want me to talk about it. You want me to make some kind of estimate on how bad it will get. More importantly, you want to know when to apply for that Canadian visa (assuming we are not at war with them. Remember that they'll pick Australia's side over us.)

So, the way I see it, we are talking about three potential outcomes to watch for.
  1. A Disaster Presidency
  2. Amazing to most of us, a Successful Presidency
  3. Democratic progress is threatened, a Threatening Presidency.
Hopefully, I can maintain an updated guess on each of these and more important what will be the "tipping points" as in what to watch for.

The Disaster Presidency

I would define this as overrun with corruption and incompetence, an unnecessary international crisis or war, or massive economic hardship. This would include a financial crisis, suffering from changes to health care, an epidemic of riots, etc.

What helps is that there are previous examples of disaster presidencies. Examples are Grant, Harding, Nixon, and G.W. Bush. (Some would include Carter in this list as well, but you see the point.) However, in theses examples, three were re-elected. All have historian defenders, Even now, you will meet resistance criticizing Nixon and Bush. That is because there is some subjectivity (that war was totally necessary) and relativity (your president was more corrupt).

Whatever, the case, we will not get a consensus until long after we have passed on. Maybe not even then. However, we can get a majority. One of the best measures is (What's it called? Oh yeah.) elections, but we see how inaccurate the last one was. There are also approval ratings. Yeah I know we just had problems with polling as well. Perhaps the best measure in Congress.

Even if the presidency is broiled in disaster nothing will happen before 2020, unless Congress allows it. As of now, the bet is 'no', but that can change. And that is the real question, what will change it? Quite simply when will the majority of senators and representatives believe Trump is more harm to them than good. Simply put, would 218 representatives and 60 senators believe they must stop him to be re-elected

Counting representatives is too cumbersome and complicated, so instead, as a proxy, let's count the minimum senators that would never take power from him. If the count is comfortably bellow 60, he's safe. 60 or above he's on thin ice. 67 or above, he's one mistake away from impeachment.

My eyeball guess is 36. I'll get into this more in a future post.

Off the top of my head, tipping points include
  •  Conservative media no longer supports him
  •  Approval ratings drops bellow 35%
  •  Major republicans change parties

The Successful Presidency

Hey, who knows. I and about half the country could be wrong. Again, though, just like the Disaster Presidency, there will always be those who insists it's a success even as Russian soldiers are landing on our shores. So, we are back to using Congress again. Here I would count the number of senators that will vote for his initiatives no matter what. Bellow 50, times will be difficult for him. Above 60, he's only limited by his competency. My eyeball guess is 49. I'll get into this more in a future post.

A point to remember is that a Successful Presidency is not necessarily a republican success. There are a lot of scenarios where the Trump Presidency is remembered for progressive accomplishments (raising minimum wage, expansion of Medicare, return of unions, etc.) In fact, for reasons I'll go into later, success will most likely be a bipartisan success.

Off the top of my head, tipping points include
  • Approval ratings goes above 50%
  • New political candidates begin to imitate President Trump
  • Political parties restructure or new one forms

The Threatening Presidency

Note that during the election, I had looked at his' threat to democracy', while here I instead refer to 'democratic progress'. The difference is that 'threat to democracy' would describe changes that have no parallel in American history and would have a bipartisan agreement. But, that's a tall order.

America was less 'democratic' than toady, and we don't want that to return to then. I avoided describing the threat that way during the election because there's no bipartisan way to do so. My hope is that I can outline both conservative threats (such as permanent government takeover of businesses) and liberal threats (such as overt voter suppression), even if done separately. I'm looking for scenarios where at least one side would hate and the other would not like (or admit to liking). Good examples are internment camps and the return of Jim Crow. And of course, this would include out and out threats to democracy.

Long term effect is important here. In truth, I am more concerned about the President that follows Trump. And by the converse, my concern is less for action easily undone by the next president.

So how do we rank the chances and what are the tipping points

Off the top of my head, tipping points include
  • Approval ratings goes above 50%
  • New political candidates begin to imitate President Trump
  • Political parties restructure or new one forms
  • Governors commit constitutional abuses and the Federal Government does not stop it
  • Judge rulings are ignored with no consequences
  • Major news media outlets are closed with no pushback
  • Militia groups are allowed to commit violence with no real effort to stop them
If some of those are the same as a Successful Presidency, yeah that's the case. He has to be perceived successful to be a threat (otherwise, he's just a disaster). So you can think of a Threatening Presidency as a Successful Presidency Plus.

As for ranking the likelihood, I still can't come up with an objective measure. The closest I know of is the Doomsday Clock, but that is a subjective one. For now, I'll have to be subjective and just try the following.

In order to be threatening, President Trump has to meet three thresholds. Has to be willing to make an attempt. He has to be competent enough to succeed. And, none of our 'checks and balances' would stop him. I'll rank each of these as Very Low, Low, Medium, High, and Very High. Here are my first guesses.
  • Attempt: Medium
  • Competence: Low
  • No Check: High
Since all thresholds would have to be met, the overall rank is the lowest of all three. So, Low. 'll get into this more in (you guessed it) a future post

Monday, February 6, 2017

How We Got Here - Post 4

Democracy Without Slavery (Sort of)

Reconstructions creates two enduring myths


In Post 1 and 2, I discussed a lot about how American politics today are influenced by the debates of State's Right, tariffs, and slavery. Then in Post 3, I discussed how America transformed from a republic into a democracy and how the "culture wars" began. The Civil War is over, now and America is a democracy. Do I finally get to stop talking about slavery? Well sort of.

In the 3rd post, I stated that full democracy (for white males) was established in 1840 when the last state ended property requirements to vote. That's certainly how most historians describe it. However, I'm about to argue that this does not really happen until after the Civil War.

While I made a big deal about how the Electoral College gives a slight advantage to rural states (same as slave states at that time), there was another provision that gave slave states more power, the Three-Fifths Compromise. In all branches, the Constitution was written to give less populate (rural) states more representation than more populated (urban) ones. Here's what it looks like today, comparing the least populated, Wyoming, versus the most, California.

   Population Rep    Pop/Rep Ratio Elect  Pop/Elect Ratio
WY    585,501   1 585,501.00  1.26     3 195,167.00  3.66
CA 39,250,017  53 740,566.36  1.00    55 713,636.67  1.00


The House or Representatives was meant to be the most democratic, but still, a Wyoming vote counts as about 1.26 California votes. And as described before, the Electoral College is less representative. A Wyoming vote is worth 3.66 votes in California.[1]

Now let's look at what happens when we use the Three-Fifths rule.[2]

    Free Pop %Slaves Rep    Pop/Rep Ratio Elect  Pop/Elect Ratio
SC   301,302     57%   6  50,217.00  2.31     8  37,662.75  2.86
FL    15,090     44%   1  15,090.00  7.70     3   5,030.00 21.40
PA 2,906,215      0%  25 116,248.60  1.00    27 107,637.59  1.00


One vote in Florida counts as 7.7 and 21.4 votes in Pennsylvania because of their population of 44% slaves. Florida versus Pennsylvania of 1860 might be extreme, but then so is Wyoming versus California. If you need a better match consider South Carolina, not the lease populated state of the time but the one with the greatest percentage slave. While the Electoral College advantage is about the same, a South Carolinian vote was worth over double that of Pennsylvania in the House.

This advantage effectively ended with the 13th Amendment and was codified by the 14th and 15th Amendments. Removing the Three-Fifths Compromise actually increased the representation of southern states slightly (one is greater than three-fifths), but it greatly decreased the power of a white southerner. So, it's no wonder that white southerners felt like they were being oppressed.

Then again they were. The assassination of Lincoln and impeachment of Johnson redefined Reconstruction from the lenient gentle approach wished by Lincoln and Johnson to a more punitive one. On the bad side, that meant no leniency towards ex-Confederates, the removal of local governments, and occupation of the military. On the good side, that meant the protection of African Americans, including the destruction of the original KKK.

Talking about Reconstruction brings us into the same historic debate of preserving the Union versus fighting the injustice of slavery and white supremacy. But, I would like to put that off for now and describe the southern view of Reconstruction as I've come to understand it. Let me tell you about Lucas and Beauregard Duke.

They were just good men never wishing harm. Beyond what you’ve ever seen, they had trouble with the law since the day they were born. They were just good doing what they could. But, they stood against injustice and corruption like modern Robin Hoods.

Okay, enough of that. For those of you who haven’t caught on, I am talking about the 1970s TV show, The Dukes of Hazzard. The Duke brothers, under probation for moonshine-running, in the fictional Hazzard County of Georgia, continually thwarted the schemes of the corrupt county commissioner, Boss Hog. The show was really just an excuse for car stunts, a bit of southern country comedy, and daisy dukes. (Let me not forget the daisy dukes.) Now, there was nothing I see racist about this show. Boss Hog was even dressed in white. But, on top of the Dukes' car, there was a Confederate flag.

And while the Dukes of Hazzard was a show of the 1970s, that was the narrative of the Reconstruction and all the years after. The Confederate South was a defeated nation occupied by a hostile government. (Kind of true.) Weaken and vulnerable, it's people became the victims of northern exploitation and carpetbaggers. (Totally true.) Their leaders were failures and corrupt, so the only hope was the outlaw hero.

Many famous outlaws of the West, such as Jessie James, were ex-Confederate soldiers. (Often guerrilla fighters.) Disillusioned by the war, they used their skills as outlaws and became romanticized. It's become a standard American troupe. A veteran of a failed war wanders the country to become an outlaw hero. Think of Rambo, Jonah Hex, Firefly's Mal Reynolds, and even Jack Reacher.[3] So, when southerners wave the Confederate flag, they're not idolizing rich slave owners, they're idolizing the outlaw hero. It is called the Rebel Flag after all.

Of course, there's the other side of the story. The first ten amendments, Bill of Rights, were passed two years after the Constitution was ratified. So, for 74 years (1791 to 1865) only two amendments had been added. However, the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments were passed in 5 years, which is a significant amount of change in a very short time. More importantly, these amendments expanded the power of the Federal government in a way the Founding Fathers had never expected.

I already mentioned how these three amendments significantly reduced the power of 'rural' states, but they also turned on its head the idea of states themselves. The Nullification Crisis had removed the idea that a state could countermand the Federal Government. The Civil War had destroyed the idea that states have any sovereignty. These three amendments and what was to follow ended the idea that local governments protect our rights.

When established, the Founding Fathers expected that the states would protect the rights of an individual against the government, just as the Separation of Powers would. But, that's not what happened. States did not end slavery, the Federal Government did. And states were not going to protect freedmen so the Federal Government would have to. Yes, Reconstruction did open the South to exploitation, but it also expanded and protected the rights of non-whites. The Federal Government was the expander and protector of Civil Rights. The states were the oppressors.

Reconstruction ended with the Compromise of 1877 and fell short of what was hoped. The South never fully economically recovered as the more lenient Republicans wanted. While you would not describe southern states as destitute, they are still less wealthy than northern states, and Reconstruction is one of the reasons. For the more stern Republicans who wanted to bring African-Americans to full enfranchisement, once Reconstruction ended persecution soon returned, and has only recently been pushed back. (Many, including myself, feel we have to remain vigilant).

And what about the Democrats. Well, most had been participants and leaders of the Civil War, so the party did not regain political influence until Reconstruction ended. Remember how I told you white supremacy had become a part of the democrat movement with Jackson, well that became an even more significant part of the Democratic Party. Redeemer democrats soon enacted Jim Crow laws that suppressed the African-American vote. Once again the white southerner gained the oversized representation they had with the Three-Fifths rule. The Democratic party embraced the contradiction. On one hand, they remained the party of the common man, but they were also the party of white supremacists. The Republicans, on the other hand, was the Party of Lincoln and at the same time the party of big business exploiting the common man.

I've talked a lot about State's Rights and slavery so far. This is the end I was reaching for. After the Civil War, slavery ended and State's Rights became either arcane legalese or just a political talking point. What did live on, however, was the Dukes of Hazzard myth, which is how many "rural" voters see themselves. They are outlaw heroes and the victims of oppression. What big government claims as good is just taking away from the hard working to give to the corrupt and less deserving. As for racism, that's just something city slickers and hippies come up with to take advantage of real Americans.

For many "urban" voters, they see themselves as the activist heroes, the descendants of abolitionists. They understand the government does not oppress men as much as men oppress other men. Those "rural" voters just don't understand the true nature of progress.

Which party would adopt which myths switched and mangle over time, but if you listen, you will hear these stories retold today.