As you have probably heard, Paul Ryan, the current Speaker of the House, has announced that he will not seek re-election, which immediately prompts the question as to what that means. In particular, what does that mean for those of us watching Trump? The short answer is that it’s definitely a set back for President Trump and Republicans in general. What’s harder to answer is how much.
First off, whatever the effect, it will only be for about 8 months. After that, Ryan is not Speaker, and all changes will depend on the outcome of the 2018 elections. Also, before we consider Ryan’s retirement, we must look at what it means when any Republican Representative retires.
The first point that is always made when a politician retires is that he is freer to vote “his own conscious” and behave independently. That is undoubtedly true, but not as much as we tend to think. We must remember that just because a politician retires from his offices does not mean he retires from politics. He will still have friends who are trying to get re-elected. His next job will probably need to leverage his political loyalties and reputation. And then there is always the possibility that he might run for a higher office, regardless of what he says or even his thinking at the moment.
And then there still is the fact that his principles have not changed. (Yeah, I said principals. Don’t laugh. OK laugh a little.) Whatever you think of the compromises politicians make, they mostly do have underlying principles that motivated them to seek office. Included is the idea that their party is better than the other. And those are the principles most empowered by his retirement. So, just because a retiring politician acts on his principles, that does not mean he will act on your principles.
What changes most for a retiring politician is his ability to think long-term instead of short-term. He is no longer motivated by the next election, but by his legacy, the welfare of his friends, and the long-term effects on his political career.
That said and despite my warnings, I did update the CongressCount treating all retiring republicans as an addition to the Disaster Count and a subtraction from the Success Count. But, as always, these counts are measures of independence, not opposition. If you want that, vote this November.
As should be no surprise, President Trump's chance for Success has gone down, and his chance for Disaster has gone up. The change in the Success Count does not mean that much given how close we are to the November elections. However, that the Disaster Count has now reached a threshold is. There are currently enough independent and opposition votes to remove the President from offices, assuming such a vote would ever be called.
And that's the real question, isn't it? Now that Ryan is retiring, how much more likely is he to call a vote for Impeachment?
Well...
Now you know why I went so much into what a politician’s retirement really means. If Ryan calls for an Impeachment vote, it would require the same level of crime as before. And there is still McConnell to consider.
If you look at the Congress Count page, you will notice that I stopped tracking the House Resistances Count, which is meaningless if the Speaker of the House has no interest in staying Speaker of the House. However, McConnell still wants to remain Majority Leader, and you must assume Ryan and McConnell talk. Effectively what has changed is that now Impeachment is a McConnell decision instead of a McConnell/Ryan decision. That's not much of a difference at all.
Where Ryan could behave differently is that he is now in the position to consider the long-term effects of his decision. Consider the unlikely case that enough is found on President Trump to warrant Impeachment to most voters. Before he would be juggling the short-term consequence of losing the House in 2018 versus permanently tarring the Republican Party. Sure, Republicans now would be angry that he lost the House but could praise him years later for saving the party.
In fact, he could begin the investigation but not force a vote until after November or at all, which would be easy to do. Then, Republicans can oppose or support the President in whatever way is best for them, all the time (wink wink) blaming Ryan.
