Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Same $#*!, Different Day

A Trump Watch Update

Given all that has happened, it does seem time to update the likelihood of a Successful, Disastrous, or Threatening Presidency. In fact, you are probably wondering why I have not done so since the Comey Firing. The reason is that, despite the failure of repealing Obamacare, staff firings, congressional sanctions, and so much more, the overall status has not shifted much by my calculations. But, a lot has happened, and it has been a while, so here is an update to the Congress Count.

Trump is Not Going to Have a Successful Presidency

OK, that a bit too definitive so let me cowardly qualify that. As of now, only external events can make Trump a successful president. His Senate Success Count is now 43, 7 senators lower than what he needs to even have a chance. Something must change. Perhaps he could change? I laughed at that as well.

The drop of 9 from the last count of 52 comes from:
  1. Four Senators have criticized Trump by name for his reaction to Charlottesville: McCain, Flake, Moran, and Rubio. In addition, Flake has written an anti-Trump book and will be trying to be re-elected in a swing state in 2018.
  2. Dean Heller showed clear concerns about being re-elected during the attempt to repeal Obamacare, and Lisa Murkowski was driven to out and out defiance by threats from Trump's staff.
  3. Susan Collins has to remain popular in a blue state, Maine, and could be planning to run for Governor.
  4. Bob Corker and Tim Scott have openly question Trump's competency and moral authority. What makes that most telling is that they are from red states, so these open actions suggest that Trump is a liability, even outside of a swing state.
That's not to mention, his conflicts with Senator McConnel.

I'm not saying, no legislative accomplishments will happen during his 1st term (at least not yet). But, whatever happens, it will be regardless of what Trump wants. Hence, Congress removing his ability to take away Russian sanctions and current legislation to prevent firing Mueller.

So, the only path left for Trump to be successful is outside of congress, such as a successful war. Yeah, that scares me too.

The Chance of a Disaster Presidency Has Not Changed

With all the senators now willing to block his success, only two new senators stepped forward to confront him, Jerry Moran and Tim Scott. And there has been no move at all by Representatives. Only two were willing to criticize Trump by name: Ed Royce and Leonard Lance. Both are from blue states. In fact, 3 representatives have been re-elected through special election while under his toxic impact, increasing his support in the House.

Most importantly McConnel and Ryan have still not shown a real will to confront him. My prediction is that instead, they are seeking ways to contain Trump rather than remove him. That's what I would be doing if I were a republican congressman.

In other words, those coming out against him over Charlottesville are mostly the same that did when he fired Comey. With the force and tone of the current opposition, I judged to remove 9 senators as support, but most were already potential opposition. Thus, the Success Count went down significantly, but the Disaster Count only went up by two.

The Chance of a Threatening Presidency Has Not Changed Either

  • Attempt: High 
  • Competence: Medium
  • No Check: Medium
As much as his recent comments are disturbing, even threatening, they are still just words. In other words, they at best define intention or Attempt. President Trump’s remarks about Charlottesville, reinforce my description of an Accidental Dictator, which indicate a higher Attempt and lower Competence rank. But, Bannon leaving potentially removes the most threatening element of his administration, which lowers Attempt and increases Competence. Events balanced themselves out, So I see no reason to change the ranks.

While more have come to see him as unhinged, his outburst could have some strategic value with the voters that keep him in power. That's what the polls are showing me. As much as we are seeing growing evidence of his incompetence, if he can keep his 37% to 40%, his Competence rank is just high enough to be threatening, and Congress remains too hesitant to lower the No Check rank. I've already made the case that Congresses' actions are more containment than check.

In short, the reason is why he has not become more threatening is that he was already threatening when he fired Comey.

Friday, July 28, 2017

Seven Years and Bupkis

Will Republicans Pay for Not Repealing Obamacare

So, after seven years of Republican politicians promising to repeal the ACA (Obamacare) and with the first chance to do so, they could not muster the political will to do so. Despite your political stance, you would be right to rant in outrage now. One could easily speculate that elections will be lost in 2018 because of this. I'm not so sure. 

First, off all Republicans can blame Senator McCain. The House passed something. The senators voted to repeal something. The two other senators that voted against any repeals, Senator Collins and Murkowski had established their position early and with the blessings of their voters. The only politician who took a political risk was John McCain, who's in a unique position to "vote his conscience". If conventional wisdom holds and elections are all local, that is the favorite position of a politician. "I voted for the right thing, but the other guy stopped it from happening."

A more serious criticism is how it shows the Republican inability to govern. I'm sure that will be brought up by their opponents. But will that criticism hold in a primary? I would not count on it. After, getting past their primary, most senators and legislators don't need to worry about getting re-elected, given the current political landscape.

But won't Republican voters be disappointed? Again, I'm not sure. That's because I never believed most Republican voters want to repeal Obamacare. Well, I mean they wanted to repeal Obamacare, but not repeal the ACA. To explain that, I have to take you back 2007. The economy had collapsed, we were still in a pointless war, and the conservatives were all to blame.

I'm sure a conservative would disagree with that last statement, but that's part of the point. The Iraq War was not a democrat or liberal idea. The economy did not fail because of too much regulation. If President Obama had been more like FDR (or maybe Clinton), he would have launch a massive campaign vilifying Republicans and conservatives, forcing them out of power for a generation. If you sincerely believe that non-conservative governance is a danger to the country, you really needed for that not to happen. Whatever, President Obama's intentions, the survival of the Conservative Movement meant that he could not be viewed as a successful president. From that perspective, you could understand Senator McConnel's goal of making "President Obama a one term president". And, that pretty much explains the last 8 years.

But, Obama is not the president anymore, and conservatives have had enough time to offer their own explanations for the failures of President Bush. There's no need to worry about Obamacare, and "the government needs to leave their hands off of my ACA". Sure, there will remain more idealistic conservatives demanding the repeal of the Obamacare, but they also want to repeal Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, Welfare, EPA, fluoride in water, bookstore that don't sell Ayn Rand novels, the letter "M", and the Federal Reserve. (They so much want to get rid of the Fed.)

What Republicans really need to worry about is when premiums go up.

They also need to worry about the future. If you are thirty years old or younger, what you know about the Democratic Party is 'health care', 'help on your student loans', and 'killing Osama bin Laden'. (Also, Jon Stewart and SNL.) What you know about the Republican Party is 'Iraq War', 'economic crisis', and, well, Trump.

Today, I was pretty hard on conservatives which is usually not what I do. First, I'll try to do the same to liberals one day. Those unbathed, quinoa eating, kale smelling liberals. Second, if you voted for Trump, I don't care. You deserve it. And finally, you can prove me wrong. Make Republican Senators and Representatives pay in 2018.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Not Invented Here

Handel Won Because of Republican Culture, Not Politics

I’ve avoided talking about Democrats vs Republicans so far, but the recent special election between Ossoff and Handel brings up one of my pet theories. Of the elections coverage, I noticed most the difference in how they campaigned. Ossoff talked about the economy and healthcare while the Democrats nationalized the election. Handle basically said, “don’t let the outsider win’. This points to a conclusion I have long had that Republicans win elections by a reliance on culture, not governance.

There's a much longer and more evidence-based discussion to have on the cultural difference between parties, but for now, let me indulge in more speculation than I usually do. My informed opinion is that Republican's have a stronger Not Invented Here stance. In other words, Republican voters are open to progressive ideas such as Medicare Part D, increased minimum wage, etc., but only if proposed by a Republican and not called progressive.

This is not meant as I slight against Republicans. Hyper tribalism can form the virtues of loyalty and solidarity. However, I will say that this can be bad for governance because politicians can skirt their incompetence and corruption relying on the loyalty of their voters. Our democracy requires cynicism to be healthy. Again, this is a larger discussion that I can't go into now.

If I'm right, Democrats might be better served by subtlety than intensity. In the last four House special elections, the other three as well or better, though the DNC paid less attention to them.

Congressional District2017 Margin Win2016 Rep Margin Win2016 vs 2017 RepTrump Margin WinTrump vs 2017
Kansas 4th730232720
South Carolina 5th319161916
Montana61482115
Georgia 6th423191.5-2.5
Data from "4 charts showing Democrats are gaining a lot of ground"

Looking over the years where Democrats were successful, you could argue that they were more Republican failures. In 2006, Democrats won the House while Republican congressmen were embroiled in scandal. Also, this was post-Katrina, when G.W. Bush's support fell away. 2008 Democrats won massive majorities just after the Financial Crisis. In 2012, Obama won after Romney's 47% remark, but the House remained in control of the Republicans.

If there is a silver lining to the Ossoff's loss, it is that Republicans are less motivated to steer away from the course they are on. As is, they are standing by, as their President goes deeper into scandal and are about to pass a highly unpopular health care bill. A Democratic win may have warned them in time to correct themselves. As is, if they need to correct in the future, it will be too late.

Instead, protests, money, and endorsements may only be keeping Republicans motivated. And, yes, that also means Democrats can't run against Trump. The message being: "Democrats. Just shut up and vote."

The better strategy would be to run everywhere and keep your core voters motivated making as little noise as possible. Let Trump and Republicans create the arguments against themselves because only they can. They've been doing a pretty good job so far.

Saturday, May 20, 2017

How Much Does Trump Firing ComeyThreaten Us? - Part 3

For the Good of the Country, Make Trump a 1 Term President 

Only by putting the House under democratic control can we keep the President Trump from threatening our democracy.
Republican Lack of Will and Wishful Thinking
has Endangered Us

In part 1 and part 2, I warned that the likelihood for a Threatening Presidency though Medium is dangerously close to High.
  • Attempt: High 
  • Competence: Medium
  • No Check: High -> Medium
Having already explained my ranks for Attempt and Competence, I will now explain No Check.

If you read the two previous posts, I had the No Check rank at High, but understandably, I’ve moved it back to Medium because Special Counsel Mueller was appointed. I am tentatively optimistic that it keeps this current threat contained. However, I am not overly so that we are safe from the next threat.

The Comey firing was a threat to our democratic progress. The only argument was whether the damage went beyond what the last two presidents have done. Thankfully, that question is irrelevant. We were alerted to it by Trump’s incompetence. And, he was checked by an institution, the justice system. Future presidents cannot hide their wrongdoing by firing their investigator.

So now, some parsing. I am watching for a Disaster Presidency and a Threat Presidency separately. They are certainly related, but as I pointed out in part 2, a potential disaster only protects us against certain kinds of threat. Wrongdoing found by the Special Counsel is a disaster that congress may act on, but future obstruction is the kind of threat they might ignore. There is a need to watch for what I described in part 2 as the Accidental Dictator.

What is concerning is that he was only stopped by the courage (or survival instinct) of a single individual, Deputy Attorney General Rubenstein. Our democracy protected by only the right person in the right place is not comforting. There may not be such an individual next time. So, far we have only been protected by leaks and the court (help by state governments). The check designated by the Constitution, Congress, has not come to our rescue, nor do I believe it will. How can I say that? History.

Fundamental to Trump becoming president is the Republican Party’s lack of will to stop him. Despite him stating he had no allegiance to their party, they let him run in their primary. Though constantly contradicting principles with which they have righteously judge the rest of us, they elected him as their nominee. Though well within their own rules and historical precedent, no one challenged him during the convention and let him have the nomination. Constantly prominent congressman voice objections to his behavior, then almost immediately endorsed him.

I understand why. They wanted to keep their jobs. Doing any of what I listed would have created a backlash endangering their re-election, even in the safest state/district. That has not changed. Of three presidents to be “impeached”[1] (Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton), they were all done when the opposite party controlled the Congress, and many would agree that at least one of these “impeachment” was only politically motivated. We just argue about which one.

Simple fact, there is little chance President Trump will be removed from office.

But then, I am not asking him to be impeached. I’m asking the Congress to take lesser steps. How about a declaration that if he fires the next FBI director, congress will consider putative action? Congress could censure the president (though that would do little). At the very least, stop attacking one of the few checks that has been working, leaks.

Instead, they have cravenly done none of this. In their initial response to Comey’s firing, just a quarter of senators have said anything against Trump and then only in the most parsed and vague language. As I pointed out in part 2, they only increased the rhetoric when he should dangerous incompetence. Congress has been like the parents that let their kid kick strangers in the shine and says, “He’s such a handful. What can you do?”.

Again, I understand. Republican voters demand a huge price for disloyalty, and integrity gives little electoral reward. I said I understand. I don’t condone.

That the President endangers democracy is not enough. It’s also not enough that he endangers their re-election. They must be certain, with no possibility of doubt and, maybe not even then, they may embrace wishful thinking like we heard before. (He’ll change. He’ll have good people around him, etc.) Until Trump is so unpopular that they see no hope of being re-elected, we cannot expect the Congress to be a check on the President.

And there, the situation is sadder. Conservative media has fully embraced the idea that the Russian Investigation is only politics and “fake news”. There is no surprise that his aggregate approval is still above 38%[2]. I can’t see the House become a real check until those approvals get into the low 30%, and still, it will be the least they can get away with. Only 2 senators need to worry about non-republican votes in 2018. I’m not certain there is a number low enough to move the Senate.

Considering this, I have a recently updated to the Congress Count:
  • 52/238 is the Senate/House Success Count
  • 64//217 is the Senate/House Disaster Count
  • 16/23 is the Senate/House Resistance Count
As you would expect, the Disaster Count did go up but not by enough. (Que outrage.) Looking at senators that have spoken out, I can only comfortably add one new senator, Bob Corker. Representatives have been silent. (Que more outrage.) So, I looked at those who voted against the AHCA. This does put us just short of the 67/218[3] we need, and you would think that would calm me some. However, there was I reason I did not make the Disaster Count the same as the Threatening Rank. The Disaster Count measures whether Congress will react to President Trump after the disaster happens. That’s reactive. What we are asking is whether they will proactively stop him. It’s the difference between taking the car keys away after the crash or taking them before the drunk driver gets into the car. For that, it must start with two people, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan.

Therefore, I added a new count, the Resistance Count.[4] This is the Disaster Count minus any democrats. The theory is that to push McConnell and Ryan, they first must worry about losing their majority seat. Over fifty present of their party must want it. By that measure, 16/23, means we must rely on their conscience to act. (Que shiver.)

Now, the democrats winning the House in 2018 has become critical to protecting our democracy. History and convention say they will, but we are far from a guarantee. The senate is almost assuredly to remain in control of republicans. Still, the House would be enough to continue investigations that neither the President nor republicans can stop. However, do not count on impeachment. The House has the power to call impeachment, but if it does not pass the Senate, Trump would more likely be helped as Clinton was. Instead, a more realistic goal is to win the House, keep him in check, and make sure the American people understand the full details of his unfitness. Then, we can end this nightmare in 2020.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

How Much Does Trump Firing ComeyThreaten Us? - Part 2

Rise of the Accidental Dictator

The be hope against a Trump destroying democracy is his incompetence. But is that enough.


WARNING: Do not read this while drinking. It will make you sad and drink more. A lot more.

In part 1, I warned that the likelihood for a Threatening Presidency is still Medium but on its way to High
  • Attempt: High 
  • Competence: Medium 
  • No Check: High 
Having already explained the increase in Attempt, I will now cover Competence

The good news is that these past days does not indicate he has gained competence. The true potential dictator would have waited, coordinated a better message, and had someone to take Comey's place. He also never would have admitted to the real reason during an interview, and if he had tried to interfere before the firing, would have done so in less suggestive ways.

But, he didn't. That what keeps his Competence at Medium, and these past days a little entertaining.

However, he hasn't (yet) shown an increased incompetence. Hard to believe, but if we look overall, he is learning some (like don’t let Bannon write an executive order), but the bigger progress is with his staff. More accurately, the incompetent personnel is being replaced. But, if he can continue to demand and get personal loyalty, eventually enough competence will surround him to be dangerous. Then again, he could be plagued by constant turnover and only to get mediocre replacements. (I certainly would not want to work for him after this week.)

But the main reason I’m keeping him at medium is that if he can keep his Delusional above 35%, he does not have to be that competent to hurt us. An important distinction is that the Competence Rank is not a judgment of overall competence. It is whether he can follow through with his attempt. He is far from competent enough to execute a coup or autocratic agenda. What he is competent enough to, however, is become what I call the Accidental Dictator. The firing of Comey is a perfect example. Just by disregarding our political norms he has potentially harmed our ability to hold future presidents accountable. One can easily see a scenario where external events combined with his autocratic response bring back atrocities of the past (“red scare”, Operation Wetback, Internment Camps, Jim Crow law, etc).

To be an Accidental Dictator, you don’t need to be that competent.

Where overall competency makes a difference for the Accidental Dictator is when it directly harms his followers and supporters. We can see this when he leaked classified data to the Russians. That created more negative reaction than firing Comey did. It could be just the “last straw”, but compared to firing Comey, the leak was legal and not malevolent. However, the Comey firing was a threat to democracy with no tangible harm (for us). The leak to Russia was a plain-out threat that someone could die over.

Part of what makes a Delusional so delusional is that politics does not "feel real”. It feels like cheering or booing at a football game, or better yet the WWF. But, when a President’s actions harm national security or the economy that is real and can pierce the delusion. Again, this is why a Disaster Presidency can’t be a Threatening Presidency. At the time of writing this, President Trump’s aggregate approval rating, on FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPoltics, are at their worse since he became president. However, they are still higher than President Clinton’s was around this time. If they hit below 35%, then even Delusionals are leaving him. Also, a recent drop in the stock market is being attributed to Trump’s incompetence, which takes money away from the financial supporters of republicans. These are the kind of trends that spur politicians to action.

But don’t relax just yet. Once President Trump’s incompetence becomes tangible (low polls, etc.), he improves or at least stops making it worse. Given time, republicans seem quite happy to forget his last misadventure. Unfortunately, one-third of the country is willing to risk harm to the rest of us as long as they remain untouched. That makes me sad. If you're sad as well, again I warned you. I need a drink.

---------------------------------------------------

Just as I was writing the last line, former FBI Director Robert Mueller was appointed Special Counsel by Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein. With only minutes after the announcement, no one can say what will happen next. (Not that will it stop us from trying.) This is a good outcome, if for no other reason than it's a return to the president being accountable to the law.

But considering what I just wrote, I'd like to engage in a little self-promotional conspiracy theory. The Special Counsel does offer one potential benefit to republicans. The Special Counsel will probably say little until all facts are known, which could be years from now. Note that this was done on the day the stock market had a big loss, and when congressmen became legitimately worried of new damning evidence (the Comey memos). Not to mention, the President is about to leave the country.

Here's what to watch for. Are republican congressmen happy or angry about this? Again, this is all self-promotional conspiracy theory.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

How Much Does Trump Firing Comey Threaten Us? - Part 1

How Firing Comey Makes the Trump Presidency More Threatening 

A President firing the FBI Director is a potential threat to democracy

WARNING: Do not read before going to bed. You will lose sleep over this.

So here I am. Behind on my posts. Figure I need to write one about the AHCA, and just as I hit publish… He did again. Something so unprecedented and disturbing that I must update the Trump Watch. I am of course talking about the FBI Director being fired while the FBI is investigating Russian influence into the Trump campaign.

The likelihood of a Threatening Presidency is still Medium but on its way to High
  • Attempt: Medium -> High
  • Competence: Medium
  • No Check: Medium -> High
As we should remember, ‘Attempt’ is how likely I feel Trump is to act in a way that harms democracy. ‘Competence’ is his and his administration ability to succeed. And ‘No Check’ is how likely I think Congress will let him do it. Right now these three ranks translate to me saying he is highly likely to try (Attempt), Congress is highly like to let him (No Check), and his lack of Competence is the best chance to prevent it. For now, I’ll explain why the Attempt rank has increased. In a later post, I will go into the other two ranks.

That I had increased the Attempt rank to High probably does not surprise you. You’re probably wondering why I did not go to Very High since he arguably is attempting right now. So, forgive me, but I’m about to parse words.

Before Trump being elected I asked if he was a “threat to democracy”, which if anything, he is less of a threat. As I pointed out in The First Step of Many, to reach the final steps of an existential threat, he needs the support of the military or a paramilitary. Firing Comey looks like this will alienate the FBI and does not help him to organize his own paramilitary. To change that, he would have to appoint a fanatical FBI Director and purge resistant FBI agents, which we have become more alert to (hopefully)

However, we aren’t asking if he is a “threat to democracy” anymore, we are asking if he is ““threat to democratic progress””. Does firing Comey, risk rolling back our democratic progress. Yes. Yes, it does. That should be obvious. What is not obvious is whether it does more than previous presidents. So, let’s look at some comparable actions in the past two presidencies.
  1. Rolled back Civil Rights (W. Bush through the Roberts Court)
  2. Mass dismissal of U.S. Attorneys (W. Bush)
  3. Increased surveillance (W. Bush, Obama)
  4. Questionable use of Signing Statements (W. Bush)
  5. Assassinated a U.S. Citizen (Obama)[1]
This list is incomplete and you may object to items that are included. Also, W. Bush and Obama progressed our democracy. That's not the point. This is an exercise to keep President Trump actions in perspective.

What is in common with the firing of Comey is that they all have little proven[2] effect on us. They also share the concern that each erodes a check on presidential power. However, in that sense, President Trump has not only attempted but succeeded. He has already removed the norm of a presidential candidate showing his tax returns and not having business ties while serving as president. Regardless of what would be found, if the Russian Investigation is not completed, we may never be able to investigate a future presidents’ wrong doings.

Here is the troubling difference. All that I listed for W. Bush and Obama was for, what they viewed, the good of the country. There was no opportunity for gain. Trump fired Comey only for Trump. Only a Trump Delusional would not see this. More worrisome is that this fits an autocratic pattern that I can no longer ignore.

I've been hesitant to base my reasoning on Trump's personality, but he has consistently dealt with confrontation the same way that I feel more confident now. The pattern seems to at first threaten or bully, and if that does not work, charm. I won't go as far as to say that he has an authoritarian personality. A narcissist can also act authoritarian. However, I have enough experience in a hierarchical organization to say that he behaves in an authoritarian way.[3]

The problem is that the U.S. is not an authoritarian country. We have checks and balances, and so the President must expect to be checked. More importantly, he must be checked sometimes by those that work for him, like an FBI Director. An authoritarian politician will eventually adapt to this. As well can an authoritarian CEO. Even high-ranking military officers do. But a, born rich, 70-year old who’s only run a family business never needs to adapt. He only needs to threaten, bully, or charm.

At this point, I no longer ask if Donald Trump will try to threaten democratic progress. I only ask when. He will keep running into situations he cannot solve by threatening, bullying, or charming, and then will take extreme acts in conflict without democratic norm. Each time he succeeds, he gains the ability to do worse and worse. Eventually, that will reach beyond the processes of government to the rest of us being harmed.

If that make you unable to sleep, remember that I did warn you.

Friday, May 12, 2017

A Biased Morning

This is going to be quick, and I can only touch the surface. But, this morning was such a good example of what biased and unbiased news sounds like.

At 8 AM I listened for about 5 minutes each to the following:

1. NPR News Recap Podcast
2. Beginning of "Morning Joe"
3. Beginning of "Fox & Friends"

Here's what's was on each and how they are biased.

NPR News Recap - Unbiased News

That President Trump contradicted the original reason for firing Comey in the most anodyne language possible. And...

That China is considering allowing the import of hamburger from the US, and in exchange, the US will allow cooked chicken to come from the China.

Morning Joe - Left-Biased Opinion Show

That President Trump and his spokesman have been lying (actually used that word) about Comey being fired. The Republican Senators are being used. Joe Scarborough spoke in particularly condemning language.

Fox & Friends - Right-Biased Opinion Show

Geraldo Rivera gave a long tortured explanation saying that the Russian Investigation will not lead to anything, and if the collision happened, it is not a crime (entirely misleading). He did so in as close to as scholarly a voice as he is capable of.

Then a guest came on to report how China and US may improve trade (the same news NPR reported). He then followed on how no one else is reporting this, again to discredit the Comey news.

In Summary

First, I have to point out that there is a difference between a news show and an opinion show, so you can't condemn "Morning Joe" and "Fox & Friends" for being more biased than "NPR News". Also, both examining the content and how they are biased deserves more discussion than I can give at the moment.

This was just too good an example for me to wait until I can discuss news bias in depth. The main takeaway is that bias is more about emphasis than content and noting how "Fox & Friend" complains about news not being reported that had just been reported by NPR.

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Republicans, There's Something On Your Shoe

How the AHCA Hurts Republicans

So, we have a new republican health care bill, and there is a lot of celebrating on both side. So, who’s right? Will this be the doo doo on the republican’s shoes? Could this swing the 2018 elections?

It’s early. Really early. But, maybe can look at some signs and trends.

Bad Signs for Republicans

I've been looking at what conservative media been saying, and they are not talking about it as much as liberal. From what I’ve could see, the passage of the AHCA is being reported on, but not analyzed on Fox News as much as on MSNBC. Instead, Fox News wants to talk about something else. That’s a sign that they don’t think their audience is liking what they hear. Considering that this could be touted as an ant-Obama accomplishment, like the Supreme Court, there should be some trumpeting (pun intended).

The second bad sign is that I'm only hearing defensive arguments from republicans. Their message is about how it’s not as bad as the democrats are saying, the Senate will fix it, etc. If you told that to your boss, would he be thinking you did a good job?

Bad Signs for Democrats

They’re happy. Yeah, I know that sounds counter-intuitive, but have you noticed that republicans are almost never happy, at least not for long. That’s because anger and fear are more motivating than happiness and satisfaction. It’s one of the reasons republicans win even when most of the country is against them. Instead of gloating, democratic politicians and pundits should be screaming in outrage and how we cannot let this continue. Gloating makes your supporters relax and, worse, can galvanize the other side, even if they are being screwed by their own.

This happened in May, not November. There’s lots of time for republicans, not to fix the bill, but fix their message. Just as bad, there’s lots of time for democrats to get it wrong, which they have a history of doing.

What We Need to Consider and Still Watch For

After the 1st Delusion of Politics, there is the 2nd Delusion of Politics, “politics should be fair”. Saying politics is not fair is stating the obvious. But, here’s what we forget. Complaining about fairness only motivates people that are already on your side. Those in the middle think both sides are unfair, and the other side thinks you deserve it.

Right now, the republicans are hoping to be treated “fairly”. They want us to remember that the Senate will change it. That provisions will not happen immediately. This is the responsibility of state governments. That Obamacare was going to fail anyway. Yes, republican Delusionals will all believe that. No one else will care.

Passing the bill did worse than doing nothing because it showed us they can do something. Now, arguing that it is Obama’s fault is like me saying the previous owner of my car is still responsible for changing the oil. Republicans are now responsible for every premium increase, deductible increase, and policy denial, even if the bill never passes or no measures take effect before 2018.

Is that fair? No, it isn’t. What goes wrong with healthcare in the next year and a half could have nothing to do with what Republicans did or could do. Does not matter. It was not fair for President Obama, either.

What republicans have going for them is that they can makes this up with other bills. One of the more politely rational arguments for passing the AHCA is that it makes lowering taxes in the next bill easier. If it’s visible to lower-class and middle-class taxpayers, those not liking the AHCA could still like republicans.

And what they also have going for them is what they always have going for them. They’re Delusionals outnumber democrat Delusional. The AHCA may hurt those that voted for Trump, but they may not see it that way. And those, may not be the voters that are part of the smaller midterms electorate. However, that is why we need to know how conservative media is reporting on this. Those voters are not as loyal to their congressman as they are to Fox News and Rush Limbaugh. That conservative media hasn’t yet, is a bad sign for republicans.

Therefore, I would recommend to democrats to focus on the AHCA increasing costs for older people, who do vote in midterms. If you’re worried about younger voters, there's more than enough reasons for them to vote against republicans. Remember that those willing to take away healthcare won't think twice about taking away help for student loans. (Yeah, that got your attention.)

This is where democrats need to be careful. Too many offensive comments or talk of single-payer can be just what conservative media is looking for, and that could be enough to maintain or even increase support for republicans.

And in the same way, democrats need to keep their voters motivated on this. If democrats cannot get voters to turn out on healthcare, they won’t be able to on Planned Parenthood, Russia, or any other issue. So, we should keep watching to see if democrats stay motivated.

I could once again point out that it’s way too early to make predictions on the 2018 Election, but I really can’t back out in the last paragraph. Even I would not make that cowardly a qualification. So, I will definitively say this hurts republican chances of keeping the House more than it helps. And this is already in an environment where history and conventional wisdom says they are at a disadvantage. I would say it pushes their chances down to a totally made up 30% of keeping the House. But remember, as I kept warning, those were the same odds Trump had of becoming president.

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

The First Step of Many

Update to the Threatening Presidency Watch

As I’m sure you heard, as of five days from writing this, the U.S. Navy launched and air strike against a Syrian airfield in response to Assad’s latest chemical attack. Talking politically about such a subject is in poor taste too soon after such an event. That has not stopped partisan media, however, which I feel is too soon. Unfortunately, I must be a hypocrite on that sentiment. My defense is that there are dangers that can sneak by while we adhere to the demands of empathy and patriotism. For me, that means I need to update the Trump Watch for a Threatening Presidency.

The rank has moved from Low to Medium:
  • Attempt: Medium 
  • Competence: Low -> Medium 
  • No Check: High -> Medium 
Before I go further, let me clearly say that I tentatively support the President's actions in Syria. As of now, the attack was appropriate and well executed. I say 'tentatively' because we cannot know the full wisdom of such actions until we see the results and follow-up over time.

Having said that, let me now get into why it raises the risk of a Threatening Presidency. The simple answer is that it was a well-executed attack and military competence is a precursor to exactly the kind of increased power political leaders use to harm their own people. This is why I moved the Competence rating from Low to Medium. As I pointed out before, the dilemma of wanting competent leadership over the next 4 to 8 years is that it makes a Threatening Presidency possible. Military competence is the greatest threat because the President can achieve it unilaterally and the support of the military is a requirement for the most dangerous threats, such as a government overthrow or civil war.

Ok, that sounded pretty disturbing, but don't panic (yet). There are many many steps before we get to that point. And that is the reason for me doing this kind of Trump Watch so we can keep a balanced assessment without devolving into a panic. Furthermore, at the same time, the failure AHCA, republican senators’ current behavior in the Russian investigation, and the recusal of Rep. Nunes are all indications that the let me lower the No Check rank from High to Medium.

To clarify, let me talk about the Syrian strike in terms of good and bad news.

The Good News First

  1. The Syrian strike was a conventional action. Reports are that President Trump relied on the advice of serious generals and not his inexperienced and ideologue advisors. The initial indication is that, at least, in military action, he will behave conventionally, which reduces chances of disaster and him using the military to promote a Threatening Presidency.
  2. The worst of his supporters were put to the sideline. Reports are that Bannon influenced has decreased, and the attack is contrary to the political philosophy Bannon has been advocating. Lately, there have been some signals that Bannon's issues have been resolved, so it's too soon to tell. However, if Bannon continues to be distanced from the President, I would consider lowering the Attempt rank.
  3. This is more evidence that the President "has a heart". I have no doubt that he is capable of viciousness, but remember that people are always more complicated than that. I've noticed for some time that he has not yet countered DACA. There are rumors and threats, but his hesitation, to me at least, suggests that when the President is confronted, in a personal way, with the harm he can do, he is drawn to decency. His response to the Syrian chemical attack is more evidence of this, and, hopefully, decency could stay his head from other actions. 

Now the Bad News

  1. This could escalate. I won't get into all the ways the Syrian attack could make the situation worse. There's plenty of other articles detailing this. For our purposes, if our military engagement increases, this creates opportunities for the President to claim more power.
  2. The President could learn a bad lesson. There's a good chance the President's approval will go up. Historically, it will not last long, and I doubt it will go beyond the high forties. However, there's about 20% of the population looking for any reason to feel better about the President. Given past behavior, this could lead the President to believe that any kind of military intervention helps him. Where that goes gets scary.
  3. This is a return to the Imperial Presidency. Since the 1930s, the presidency has increased in power, especially in the use of military power. Now, this is something, only a portion of political junkies care about, and all presidents have added to this concern, including President Obama. But President H.W. Bush did make a step back by asking for congressional approval to enter the Gulf War. No President has conceded they must get approval, even though the Constitution clearly states so. However, presidents have made either a pretense of constitutionality, before issuing the attack, or directly asked for congressional approval. That President Trump did this unilaterally puts the Imperial Presidency back on track. Normally this would be just academic, but the concern was that if we continued to let the Presidency get unchecked power, one day we would get a president that truly abuses them. Well... 
There is a temptation to say that the attack on Syria was politically motivated. From my research, thus far, I have not found a case where a past president has use military action only to promote him politically. However, there are cases where they have done so to become president. (We now know that Nixon sabotaged Vietnam War peace talks to improve his chances of being elected.) With any other president, I would not have these concerns. Once assuming the office, the awesome responsibility of military action made them act under conventional norms. But, what we all agree on is that President Trump is unconventional.

Monday, March 27, 2017

How We Got Here - Post 6

The Progressive Era and the Power of the People

The Progressive Era is how America responded to the abuses of the Gilded Age.

Exactly when the Gilded Age ended and the Progressive Era began is, as always, a bit of a historical debate. As I discussed in the last post of this series, progressivism grew in response to the excesses of wealth, so some of its advances had already begun such as the Pendleton Act, American Federation of Labor, and Sherman Anti-Trust Act However, I like to see it as beginning with a gunshot.

Governor Theodore Roosevelt had proven a thorn in the New York republican party leadership with his progressive ideas of reform. Then, Vice President Garret Hobart died, leaving President McKinley in need of a new vice president for his re-election. The party bosses now had a tried and true way to get an unwelcome politician out of the way. They convince Roosevelt to be McKinley's new vice president.. With Roosevelt, McKinley won in a landslide only to be assassinated in his first year. Suddenly, for the first time, against his own party’s efforts, a progressive was the most powerful politician in America.

You might not call President Roosevelt a progressive by the standards of today, but he certainly made steps towards a more progressive government. He argued along, what he would all later the Square Deal, that government had a role in protecting workers and consumers from "predatory wealth”. These sentiments live on within the democratic party, demonstrated when President Obama invoked Roosevelt's famous New Nationalism speech, echoes the words, and made them his own:
"But Roosevelt also knew that the free market has never been a free license to take whatever you want from whoever you can. ...And today, they still can’t. 
"... this country succeeds when everyone gets a fair shot, when everyone does their fair share, and when everyone plays by the same rules ..."
From President Obama’s economic speech in Osawatomie, Kansas.

Starting with the Coal Strike of 1902, President Roosevelt did something not done before, the government took the side of a union. Before when the government got involved, it was to break up a strike taking the stance that the property of the business owner needed to be protected. Instead, President Roosevelt forced both sides to negotiate for the good of the Nation. The precedent was set.

After that, mostly under pressure from the public, activists, and muckrakers, more restrictions on business pass such as the Expediting Act, Elkins Act, Pure Food and Drug Act, and Meat Inspection Act. These were small actions, but they were the beginning of the “regulatory state”.

For the most part, progressive reforms were bipartisan. Each party wanted to do something progressive, they just differentiated on the details, how progressive to be, and who should get credit. That’s where the votes were. Much of the country were those that had been abused by the Gilded Age now, not the ones who prospered. America had been reshaped by immigration, economic turmoil, and technology, but what became of a common thread is this. Most American wanted the government to help them with their problems.

To go over the list of progressive acts and reforms passed would consume more than one post, but up until now, they were limited regulations on business, reforms of government corruption, and the building of public works. This was also the time when 4 significant amendments were passed, the 16th through 19th.

The 16th Amendment made it legal for the Federal Government to collect income tax. You really can’t underestimate the political significant. No one wants to pay taxes, so politics is always about them. However, with such taxes as tariffs, the opposing sides did not depend on wealth but how the wealth was made. Wealthy businessmen wanting fewer imports would use their influence to promote more taxes. However, income tax means the wealthy are always incentivized to use their wealth for lower taxes that can only be countered by populace arguments motivating the masses. Maybe over simplified, but that can sum up most of the political arguments for the last century.

The 17th Amendment made senators elected by democratic vote. This made the lower income voter more significant especially in low population states. Given what we learned in post 1 that seems more significant than it is. However, the number of senators per state did not change, which is what creates the biggest discrepancy. Also, lower income voters had a say before in who their senators were in that they elected the people that voted appointed them. This just made their power more direct. In other words, now senators had to campaign.

The 19th Amendment gave women the right to vote. Obviously, this is the most significant in that it doubled the electorate. But, I’m going to tread lightly here and not say much. I can be stupid, but not stupid enough to claim women vote differently than men without a lot of thought and facts to back me up.

The Progressive Era did have its darker roots, though. Because progressivism includes the idea that science should be used to govern, many progressives advocated eugenics. [1] You will notice that progressives of this era made no opposition to Jim Crow laws. Partly it was political expediency, but it was also because many progressives embraced white supremacy and, even if well meaning, believed social problems required “racial” solutions. For example, President Woodrow Wilson segregated the Federal Government and the Chinese Exclusion Act was renewed. Fortunately, these attitudes only form intent and did not successfully lead to much legislation or permanent effects (which is why you hear so little of it). What it did mean is that while advancement was made for women and the poor, nothing was done for different races.

When progressivism dealt with democratic expansion, civil rights, government corruption, and business greed, it proved successful (at least politically so). It’s when it attempted social engineering problems started. The most visible example is the Temperance Movement and the 18th Amendment. We discussed the Temperance Movement when covering the Jacksonian Era. The movement was apolitical, but more closely aligned with republicans. Besides the fact that much of these movements had, historically, associated themselves with republican abolitionists, the Republican Party chose as a political strategy to promote temperance as an attack against democrats. Most Irish and Germans being democrats, republicans used stereotypes of them to paint the democrats as lacking character.

Progressives embraced temperance based on sociological reasoning. The temperance movement did not just want to ban alcohol because of morality, but a belief that it was the cause of many social ills including familial abuse, unemployment, crime, and so on. [2] (This is also why the Temperance Movement and Suffrage movement became linked. It's not an accident that both amendments were passed next to each other.) Now, we know alcohol can contribute to these problems or be a symptom of a mutual cause, but outlawing alcohol does not cure these problems. It can even make them worse. Prohibition proved a failure to be undone by the 21st Amendment.

Although, the end of the Progressive Era had begun before the beginning of Prohibition. What began the end is what ends most eras, war. Up until now, politicians, for the most part, agreed on what American foreign policy should be. There should be as little as possible. Staying out of other conflicts, especially European, was the consensus, what we would call isolationism today. The Spanish-American War was America's first attempt at imperialism [3], and Americans found they did not like it. [4] But, progressives often viewed foreign affairs as the opportunity, even a responsibility, to make the world better, not just America.

Like it or not, the world had changed, and America, like everyone else, was drawn into WW1. President Wilson delayed America's entrance until the war was almost over, but there are two beliefs about WW1 everyone, even today, agrees with. It should not have happened and it should not happen again. For President Wilson, the second provided the opportunity to apply his theories to prevent war, in particular, the League of Nation.

America wanted no part of it, and the League of Nations failed. Combined with its failure, a post-war economic decline, the death of Theodore Roosevelt [5], and Prohibition, the progressive movement had been mortally wounded. It may not have ended yet, but it did enter a decline.

And then there were the communists. You will remember that during WW1 is when Russia became the first communist state. Fear of communists, bolsheviks, and anarchists had begun when these ideas were first heard of, but the hyper-nationalism brought by WW1, the shock of the Russian Revolution, and terrorist acts done by these leftist groups created what would come to be known as the 1st Red Scare. Hysteria rose beyond the threat, causing deportation and persecution. Within a year, when the predicted Bolshevik revolution did not happen, the panic had faded, but the damage had been done.

Slandering progressivism as communism-lite is not hard. Certainly, if you believe in the most limited government possible, you would inevitably see it that way. However, most of us don’t. But, the communists, Bolsheviks, and anarchists of 1919 made that association all the easier even for those of us not prone to see it. You will still see many conservatives and other groups claim the progressive movement had been “invaded by communists”, and they will point to the 1st Red Scare to justify it.

Ironically, as a progressive, you would not promote a reaction like the 1st Red Scare, realizing you would be its first victim. However, what makes such hysteria more threatening is when it happens with an overpowerful intrusive government, which progressives tend to promote. Then, you see the beginnings of a police state. Fortunately, American has never come anywhere near to being a police state, compared to actual police states, but you can understand the fear.

There is a natural tension in democracies between the needs of the majority versus the rights of individuals. Too much power to the majority and we risk becoming a police state. Too little power, then individuals through wealth and influence become robber barons. The Progressive Era had happened in response to the latter. But, behind that, there was always a fear that the majority would go too far. Perhaps, Prohibitions and the 1st Red Scare were examples of too far. Perhaps not. But, if you know just a little of the history to follow, you know in about twenty years it's going to get a lot scarier.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

The Presidential Elevator Pitch

What Does a Successful Presidency Mean

Let’s talk more about the Successful Presidency and let me extend on that definition because I need to. My previous definitions have been too vague. As I have already pointed out. I can only measure if President Trump is perceived as successful. By that standard, many would not call Obama' presidency successful (about 40%). I'm also sure that if Trump's presidency is not a disaster, many (probably the same 40%) will declare him the greatest president ever. (He certainly will.[1])

What I'm really thinking of is how the President's party will treat him after his term is over. A party will always refer to the last president they view as successful enough to associate with. Republicans usually use Reagan because they did not want to be associated with the 2 presidents after him. President H.W. Bush had only been elected one term and President W. Bush had.... well you know.

For democrats, they could go back to President Clinton because the economy had been so good. Before that, they usually went back to President Kennedy.

Obviously, that changes over time. President W. Bush is looking a lot better compared to the current President, and President Clinton is looking worse due to revisiting it in the Hillary Clinton's campaign. But, at some point, we start talking about how historians will think and not what politicians think.

Usually, this means that when you think of a president, mostly good achievements come to mind. Here's what I mean:

Reagan (Success)

  • What 1st Comes to Mind: defeated the Soviet Union, the "Reagan Revolution", Tax Reform
  • What 2nd Come to Mind: Iran-Contra Scandal, 1983 Beirut barracks bombings

H.W. Bush (Failure)

  • What 1st Comes to Mind: a bad economy, not re-elected, Savings and Loans Scandal
  • What 2nd Come to Mind: 1s Iraq War, Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990

Clinton (Mixed)

  • What 1st Comes to Mind: a good economy and tech boom, sex scandals, NAFTA
  • What 2nd Come to Mind: Bosnian War, checks against Saddam Hussein's aggression, Welfare Reform balanced budgets, tax increases

W. Bush (Disaster)

  • What 1st Comes to Mind: 2nd Iraq War, Financial Crisis, 9/11
  • What 2nd Come to Mind: Medicare Drug Act, aid to Africa

Obama (Success for now)

  • What 1st Comes to Mind: ACA (Obamacare), killed Osama Bin Laden, kept us out of a depression
  • What 2nd Comes to Mind: failure to close Guantanamo Bay, BP Oil Spill, VHA scandal
  • To Be Determined: ISIS

I'm sure you would come up with a different list. Many do remember the 1st Iraq War and don't even know there was a Savings and Loans scandal when thinking of H. W. Bush. Also, some are subjective. The "Reagan Revolution" is the greatest thing ever to a conservative and a horror to progressives. Don't even get me started on deficit spending. But, hopefully, you see the point. After writing down your own list (without falling to the Great Delusion of Politics), you will see one president harder to sell, then others.

But, who does the selling? Why other members of the party hoping to be elected, and that's what the Success Count should measure. How much other politicians think they can sell this president. In other words, the Presidential Elevator Pitch. Thus. it’s not an idle exercise. If other politicians believe they will not be able to sell him in the future, they are encouraged to distance themselves from him and no longer defend him. That will harm his legacy and mean the difference between success and failure.

Now look. Whatever happens, his Delusionals will insist he was great and any failure was just the system being rigged. The question is this. Will there be enough fans, after he is no longer president, for politicians to invoke his name or pretend he was never president?[2]

In this way, the Presidential Elevator Pitch can become a shorthand for the Success Count. Think of three outcomes that a non-partisan would be most likely to remember. Don’t forget to avoid the Great Delusion of Politics. Here would be my list so far:
  1. Travel Ban
  2. Russia
  3. Twitter
Unless you are a Delusional that list looks bad. Perhaps, there will be enough fervent support to continue to pressure republican politicians, but that tends to hurt as much as it helps.[3] Without a better list, the Trump Presidency might at best be remembered as a good reality TV show.

Sunday, March 5, 2017

What Counting Teaches Us

Projections of the Latest Congress Count

Here are my latest Success and Disaster Count
52/237 is the Senate/House Success Count
61/206 is the Senate/House Disaster Count
First, off the bat, you should notice that I now have House Counts which you can look at in the Congress Count link. I’ll get into those in a bit.

Second, you should now realize there is nothing Trumpy about these numbers. I could go through the same exercise with any President. (It’s just this guy made us feel we needed to.) Furthermore, these numbers (right now) are more a factor of partisanship. I would not be surprised if I got similar numbers for President Obama.

In general, what they say is that President Trump is safe from any opposition, but he will not be able to do much except basic President stuff. How can that change?

In order to increase the Success Count to 60, 8 democratic senators have to shift. That would not take a lot. 10 are up for re-election in either republican or swing states. However, as long as protests are high and Trump's approval is bellow 50%, these senators have to worry about being primaried.

If the 538 Trump Democratic Average drops bellow -5, I would consider adding the 5 senators in republican states. I've marked these 5 with '?' as they will be the first to go. If his approval goes above 50%, I would add the other 4 in swing states.

In order to get the Disaster Count to 67, 6 republican senators and 12 representatives have to shift. The first to look for is Dean Heller, but I would not give much hope. Despite him representing a swing state, his history and current voting do not support independence. After that, there are no more senators from swing states to add.

If President Trump's approval, however, starts to drop bellow 40%, I would look for more signs of independence. I've marked those where Trump won the least with '?'. The bad news is that I had to go as high as him winning by +15% to reach 6 (without including Dean Heller). The good news is that one of the +15% is Lindsey Graham. (I also can't believe one of the '?' is Ted Cruz. Good God, I'm looking for Ted Cruz to save us.)

Note, that Rand Paul comes from a +30% state so any senator could be added. However, as time goes forward I will also have to raise my criteria for 'independence' which would more likely shift the counts lower. I call this 'honing'.[1]

The House is more shifty (pun intended). As you know, majorities rule in the House. (Yeah, I made another pun.) So, If Paul Ryan stands with Trump and holds the House together, the House will stand as well. (And another one. Wait. Just one more.) You could say that with the support of all three branches, the President is tri-trump-phant. (OK. I'll stop now.)

Therefore, over the next 2 years, we only need to know what makes the House Disaster Count go up. Well, first Paul Ryan has to want it. After that, finding the additional 12 representatives is easy. 16 have already voted at least once against him, and an additional 18 are in states that voted against Trump. Though, these 18 have not yet voted against them, which is why I've only marked them with a '?'. 5 seats are also vacant and up for special elections this year. Again, watch out for 'honing'

Now, how does this play out over the next 8 years? (Yeah, I said 8. Don't bury your head just yet.)

Before 2018

As of now, congress is at a standstill. (What else is new.) The President can do much in the areas of foreign policy and immigration without congress. However, without congress, he will lack some tools.[2]

The Success Count is enough to provide basic funding, but he will not be able to modify departments, build the Wall, impose or lessen sanctions, pass new treaties, and so.

What he needs is to get non-trumpies on his side, enough that at least eight democratic senators will support him.

In determining President Trump's future, congress's biggest role is to keep him out of real trouble (investigations, impeachment, etc.). What tends to be missed is that the trumpies love him, not his staff. The President could find his staff picked away by scandal and leaving him effectively neutered.

And forget about new trade treaty, only trade agreements he can negotiate without congress.

2018

Obviously, the midterm election will change the numbers. The biggest change could be in the House, History is against the President, especially with an approval rating in the 40s. As stands, there is a good chance democrats could control the House. There, however, is a lot of volatility here, so that is far from certain.

However, the likely result is that the republicans keep the Senate, even if the President popularity goes lower. There are just too many democrats up for re-election and too few republicans. The Senate Success Count could raise to 60, but it's unlikely even if the political environment improves.

After 2018

Here we have two realistic scenarios: either the congressional makeup stays the same or democrats take control of the House. In the first scenario, we have the same dynamic as today. In the second, the Congress is still at a standstill, but democrats can run investigations unhindered. That could begin the end for President Trump.

2020

Obviously, if he loses, the story's done. He's at best viewed only as a footnote in history and at worse a public failure. So, let's assume he wins. (Take a deep breath. We're just talking a hypothetical here.)

Predicting the Senate elections is surprisingly easy. The opposite is true of 2018. There are 2 republicans to 1 democrat up for re-election so republicans will lose seats. The Senate will again not have enough of a majority on either side to do much. The only question is whether enough seats were gained in 2018 to offset the loss in 2020.

No change over the next 4 years is an outrageous assumption. But this is a projection, not a prediction, That's how a projection works and why it is less accurate the further you project.

For the House, there are two possibilities. Either democrat resistance is holding strong at which point the House falls incrementally to democrat control, or the House gets locked into a cycle where it switches between parties.

Before 2022

Either we have the same as before 2018 or 2020 depending on whether republicans control both the Senate and House, or whether democrats control one of them.

2022

Once again republicans are at a numerical disadvantage. If they have not lost control of the Senate, they will now. Past history also says that democrats will gain control of the House.

After 2022

This is where the current course spells trouble for Trump. In the last 2 years of any President’s 2nd terms, the President has a problem. No other elected official cares what happens to him. Democrats will most likely control the Senate or the House, and congressional investigations will have had at least 4 years to find something. With no one else to defend him, his Presidency will be headed for disaster.

Conclusion

If we project out from where we are now, we can safely say democrats will control the Senate by 2022. The House will either be locked into a cycle of switching between parties or will progressively move to democrat control. (Did I make another pun?)

This means he will either lose re-election or end his 2nd term Nixon-like after 2022.

However, something will change before this. If the President get’s “lucky” with a good economy, foreign crises suited to him, or loss of democratic momentum, his presidency could become a better success. Otherwise, he has to become a better President.

His disaster will come sooner if he gets “unlucky” with a worse economy, badly run foreign crises, or we just “get tired of him”.

I’ll have to examine the individual scenarios in later posts, and of course, I will have to adjust the projection as I “hone”. Right now he’s on a slow slide into disaster. That could change, but guess which one I would bet on.

Monday, February 27, 2017

How We Got Here - Post 5

The Gilded Age: The Origin of the Cult of Wealth

During the Gilded Age, a new "branch" of government formed, big business

After the ending of Reconstruction in 1877, politics started to become familiar with the modern day. State's Rights is ensconced in the Constitution and will never go away, but State's Rights being a preeminent idea had ended. As did slavery. Jim Crow laws would recover some of the political entitlement to white southerners, but never again to that before the Civil War. Instead, a new "branch" of government would be added to the informal five. Big business was now added with the executive, legislative, judicial, press, and states as a power in our democracy. This time would become known as the Gilded Age.[1]

The 2nd Industrial Revolution had begun and with it, a rise in concentrated wealth American had not yet seen. The wealthy of this era we still know today: Carnage, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, etc. And as always wealthy men become powerful men. Not that this was new to America. However, unlike such men as Washington, Jefferson, and Jackson, these men never sought public office, and their wealth was national in nature. Not plantations, but industrial monopolies that reached across the country: oil, steel, railroad, etc.[2]

This meant that these titans of industry or, as we would come to know them, robber barons had federal power with none of the restraints of democracy. In other words, they were becoming an aristocracy. And worse, they began to embrace it.

Some did rebuff this idea such as Andrew Carnegie, who preferred to see himself as a self-made man. Many of who I'm talking about also preferred that image. (Some even deserved it.) However, the image presented was contradictory. The wealthy insisted that they had obtained their wealth through talent and luck (even those that inherited it), but at the same time, they insisted they were special and deserved special privileges.

Like all aristocracies, they needed an ideology to justify their superiority. America was founded on the ideas of liberalism and that men were created equal, the very rejection of aristocracy. So, the new ideology of the rich, what I like to call the Cult of Wealth, had to conform to these frameworks. Fortunately, for them, the founding fathers only proposed a political ideology, and the robber barons did not need to talk politics. Instead, they just needed the government to not interfere. Laissez-faire economics is what they proposed.

More importantly, they needed to establish themselves morally. Here they had help from the Puritans, who argued wealth was a sign of faith and poverty was a result of sin. Also, helped was the longstanding American view that a man controlled his own fate, including his economic one. Helping the poor could be seen as enabling and leading them to sin. Baptist Minister Russell Conwell perhaps best exemplified this view. In 1869, he started his "Acres of Diamonds" sermons, out and out equating success with godliness and poverty with sin. Later, even with its calls of noblesse oblige and arguments against inheritance, Andrew Carnegie's "Godspell of Wealth" glorified success and warned against encouraging "the slothful, the drunken, the unworthy".

But the Cult of Wealth went further. This was the 2nd Industrial Revolution, an age of science. Charles Darwin had published Origin of Species in 1859, and it had reached the shores of America to be perverted into Social Darwinism. The successful had proved them as "fitter". Success proved an inherent superior that for the good of American society needed flourish. Not only did this justify selfish arrogance, but brought forth disturbing ideas of racism.

However, there was a reason they called this the Gilded Age, as in only covered by a thin layer of gold. The idea of the self-made man is part of the origin of American, and this period did include some of its best examples. But a man unlucky in circumstances or birth, soon found those opportunities lessening. Monopolies were forming while factories were demanding more hours at lesser pay. To the man struggling to feed his family, his poverty was not the result of sin, but the greed of the rich.

The Gilded Age was as much a time of economic turmoil as it was expansion. What later would be called the Long Depression began with the Panic of 1873 and continued until the end of the 19th century.[3] Defined by cycles of booms, where a few would gain wealth and most would not, and busts, where the wealthy kept wealth and the rest lost, Laissez-faire economics was seen as widening the wealth gap and removed opportunities.

A few put down the Wealth of Nations and picked up the Communist Manifesto. Now socialism was too far for most Americans and has never been little more than a fringe movement. However, that did not stop big business and politicians from calling any deviation from Laissez-faire economics, socialism. Fear of socialism would be a commonly used political rhetoric up until, well, today.

Many Americans, however, would accept a compromise. Gaining wealth and property was fine, even encouraged, but someone did have to step in to constrain capitalism's excesses. The seeds of American Progressivism was planted.

This was the beginning of American class warfare.

But, politicians of the Gilded Age remained on the side of business. Both parties mostly argued over who could serve business better. Republicans who controlled most of the Presidency during this period promoted and took credit for the great expansion. The democrats who controlled the House were dominated by the Bourbon Democrats who were strongly pro-business through economic liberalism.

Instead, the progressive politicians were factions in each party and focused on fighting government corruption. The republican factions of Mugwumps and Half-Breeds fought the Stalwarts over government corruption in the form of the spoil system. Bourbon Democrats opposed local corruption in the form of city bosses and supported such reforms as Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883.

Instead, the fight against the robber barons birthed the first union, the Knights of Labor, later to be replaced by American Federation of Labor. Multiple strikes would happen, often met with violence from their employers, and the government always took the side of business.

All eras ends as did the Gilded Age. The three elements of the Cult of Wealth would eventually be discredited as well. Laissez-faire economics would be blamed for the Great Depressions.[4] Poverty as a result of sin would be undone by the rise of Progressivism, and Social Darwinism would become associated with a guy named Hitler.[5]

But, don't be fooled. These ideas never really died. They just got renamed and covered with new gilding. Laissez-faire economics became supply-side and trickle-down economics. Prosperity theology and cries of welfare queens practically quote the "Acre of Diamonds". And those waving their copies of Atlas Shrugged and praising "the job creators" can become Social Darwinist with a slight extension of logic.

Now, those advocating such views have focused on the positive and would surely point out how they are different. You could fairly say I am being biased. Don't worry. I will soon be showing the darker side of Progressivism. For those, who evangelize the Cult of Wealth's latest version, be warned and tread lightly. There are pieces of villainy waiting to be uncovered. Where do you think the infamous "47 percent" speech came from.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Counting the Congress

How I Count Senators to Evaluate President Trump

In Trump Watch, I outline three scenarios all of which depend on whether the Trump Presidency is perceived a success of a disaster. And, as I already pointed out, the only objective measure in the short term is how many legislators are willing to take action either for or against him.
The current count is 52 Success / 61 Disaster
So, now let's look into that.

The theory is that failures or successes of the Trump administration will eventually have electoral consequences to a congressman, which will, in turn, affect support. FiveThityEight is, in fact, tracking this through their votes. They call this the Trump Score, but to avoid confusion I will call it the 538 Trump Score. This is good info, and probably better than what I can give you. However, it does have a problem for our purposes. It does not come down to a single score.

Fortunately, (with some effort) I figured out how to export the numbers to a spreadsheet. For now, I'm looking at the Trump Plus-Minus, which is their predicted score minus the actual score. Currently, their average and median are almost 0 for all cases indicating, overall congressman are voting as predicted. However, that is only because both sides are highly partisan and voting as a block. And, so each side has deviated from their predicted score by about the same amount. I've detailed the numbers, here.

This in itself is a good measure, especially for telling if partisan solidarity is holding. However, it’s hard to see if Congress would be willing to take his lead or proactively take action against him.

There are his approval and favorability ratings. Certainly, these values are a precursor to his success or disaster. Why I'm not using them yet is the I'm not finding numbers I'm comfortable with, mostly because it's too soon. In particular, I've not been able to find aggregates broken by party affiliation or, better, states. Without this, I'm vulnerable to my being mislead like many where during the elections. However, as you will soon see, I will use them to validate or invalidate certain assumptions. More importantly, if I can get good numbers, I can revisit the mindsets I used before (re-evaluated by what we learned from the election).

So, we're back to counting congressman. The goal here is to get an estimate of the number of congressmen that are ‘independent' enough to go against their party. Mostly, because I can’t realistically count representatives I am sticking to senators. My defense for this is that the goals of the Senate and House are currently aligned so the Senate can be used as a proxy for the House.

Let’s consider the following scenario. The Senate Select Committee for Intelligence has ordered the White House not to destroy documents. What if in a couple of weeks, the Senate discovered documents were destroyed. We now have the same situation that harmed Nixon and Clinton. Would the Senate consider impeachment?

Unless McConnell and Ryan could get the votes, they would not even call for a vote. So, assuming President Trump's popularity has not changed, how many votes could the get?

That would be the Disaster Count.

Now, let’s take this another way. What if President Trump made a proposal that is consistent with his promises, but electorally dangerous to senators? For example, a large tax on imported goods. For now, assume the bill is well written and the President is able to articulate a good economic argument. (Can you believe I have to say that.) How many senators would fight for such a bill?

As before McConnell and Ryan would need to know they could get the votes to let there be a vote.

That would be the Success Count

So, the counts are derived by deciding how many senators are ‘countable' or not and then deciding which would support a ‘success' of ‘disaster'. The rest or 'base' is added to the counts for each scenario.

To be ‘countable’
  • The senator represents swing state or a state different from his party. As most do, this is defined by the vote margin for or against President Trump 
  • Or, the senator has demonstrated recent actions that show independence from the President and the Party. I will have to change this over time. So far, I'm just adding republicans with a 538 Trump Score bellow 100%. 
13 republican and 17 democratic senators represent swing states or states opposite their party.

Currently, only 4 republican senators have a 538 Trump Score bellow 100%. Only Rand Paul meets this criterion and has not already been listed as ‘countable'.

38 republicans and 31 democratic senators are NOT 'countable' and are the 'base'

You may have noticed that the scores are higher for both than my eyeball guess in the post, Trump Watch. I decided not to attempt the most conservative measure because I felt comfortable making the following assumptions.

As long as Presidents Trump’s popularity remains bellow 50%, and democrats solidarity remains strong, we can assume:
  1. All swing states can be considered democratic states 
  2. Republican senators not up for election in 2018 are free to be independent. This is reasonable because politicians have to have faith in their ability to campaign and can recover if there is enough time. 
  3. Even democratic senators in republican states will remain loyal to the democratic party. This is reasonable because of primary threats that are realistic under the current fervor. 
I have all this in detail, here. In addition, there is now a link on the top toolbar ‘Congress Count'. Please note that I cannot update these values regularly so pay attention to “Last updated ...

You may ask, could a President be successful and have a low Success Count. Yes, since there have been successful presidents without help from Congress. Theodore Roosevelt and Harry Truman are good examples.

And could not a disaster happen before the Disaster Count shows it? Unfortunately, yes, especially with international scenarios.

Both these are why I have to continually make adjustments as events unfold. There’s my cowardly qualification. You’ve been warned.