Same $#*!, Different Day

A Trump Watch Update

Given all that has happened, it does seem time to update the likelihood of a Successful, Disastrous, or Threatening Presidency. In fact, you are probably wondering why I have not done so since the Comey Firing. The reason is that, despite the failure of repealing Obamacare, staff firings, congressional sanctions, and so much more, the overall status has not shifted much by my calculations. But, a lot has happened, and it has been a while, so here is an update to the Congress Count.

Trump is Not Going to Have a Successful Presidency

OK, that a bit too definitive so let me cowardly qualify that. As of now, only external events can make Trump a successful president. His Senate Success Count is now 43, 7 senators lower than what he needs to even have a chance. Something must change. Perhaps he could change? I laughed at that as well.

The drop of 9 from the last count of 52 comes from:

1. Four Senators have criticized Trump by name for his reaction to Charlottesville: McCain, Flake, Moran, and Rubio. In addition, Flake has written an anti-Trump book and will be trying to be re-elected in a swing state in 2018.
2. Dean Heller showed clear concerns about being re-elected during the attempt to repeal Obamacare, and Lisa Murkowski was driven to out and out defiance by threats from Trump's staff.
3. Susan Collins has to remain popular in a blue state, Maine, and could be planning to run for Governor.
4. Bob Corker and Tim Scott have openly question Trump's competency and moral authority. What makes that most telling is that they are from red states, so these open actions suggest that Trump is a liability, even outside of a swing state.

That's not to mention, his conflicts with Senator McConnel.

I'm not saying, no legislative accomplishments will happen during his 1st term (at least not yet). But, whatever happens, it will be regardless of what Trump wants. Hence, Congress removing his ability to take away Russian sanctions and current legislation to prevent firing Mueller.

So, the only path left for Trump to be successful is outside of congress, such as a successful war. Yeah, that scares me too.

The Chance of a Disaster Presidency Has Not Changed

With all the senators now willing to block his success, only two new senators stepped forward to confront him, Jerry Moran and Tim Scott. And there has been no move at all by Representatives. Only two were willing to criticize Trump by name: Ed Royce and Leonard Lance. Both are from blue states. In fact, 3 representatives have been re-elected through special election while under his toxic impact, increasing his support in the House.

Most importantly McConnel and Ryan have still not shown a real will to confront him. My prediction is that instead, they are seeking ways to contain Trump rather than remove him. That's what I would be doing if I were a republican congressman.

In other words, those coming out against him over Charlottesville are mostly the same that did when he fired Comey. With the force and tone of the current opposition, I judged to remove 9 senators as support, but most were already potential opposition. Thus, the Success Count went down significantly, but the Disaster Count only went up by two.

The Chance of a Threatening Presidency Has Not Changed Either

• Attempt: High 
• Competence: Medium
• No Check: Medium

As much as his recent comments are disturbing, even threatening, they are still just words. In other words, they at best define intention or Attempt. President Trump’s remarks about Charlottesville, reinforce my description of an Accidental Dictator, which indicate a higher Attempt and lower Competence rank. But, Bannon leaving potentially removes the most threatening element of his administration, which lowers Attempt and increases Competence. Events balanced themselves out, So I see no reason to change the ranks.

While more have come to see him as unhinged, his outburst could have some strategic value with the voters that keep him in power. That's what the polls are showing me. As much as we are seeing growing evidence of his incompetence, if he can keep his 37% to 40%, his Competence rank is just high enough to be threatening, and Congress remains too hesitant to lower the No Check rank. I've already made the case that Congresses' actions are more containment than check.

In short, the reason is why he has not become more threatening is that he was already threatening when he fired Comey.