Election 2016 Update 11-01

State of the Election 2016

Trump Meteor Forecast

The Trump Meteor has a 31% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.

What's Old is New Again

Would you believe. There's a chance that some voters are responding to an actually issues. On Oct 24th, the Department of Health announced a rise in premiums. You probably have heard this but not much. The news ended up 'siloed' in conservative media, and some are arguing that Trump's polls increase is mostly due to this.

Are My Numbers Wrong?

In my Oct 28th update, I set some new numbers.

39% Trumpys
4% to 6% Hopeys

43% Borings
2% to 6% Excitables

6% to 8% No-Way-No-Hows

2% to 6% Wait-n-Sees

However, Trump has had a steady raise and hit my estimated ceiling of 45%. Right now, Trump is enjoying a triple hit.

1. A good enough performance on the 3rd Debate to encourage some Hopeys 
2. News of higher premiums for Obamacare 
3. The Comey notification to Congress 

The numbers are still holding, including the prediction that Clinton still leads by 2% to 3%. But, if Trump goes higher, my assumption that Trump is still defined by the 1st Debate is probably wrong. That can change everything.