Election 2016 Update 11-07

State of the Election 2016

Trump Meteor Forecast

The Trump Meteor has a 30% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.

The Horse Race

Numbers are moving fast and in a pro-Clinton direction (whew). As of now.

Trump Needs to Take: NH, NV, NC, FL

But NV, NC and FL are on the razors edge. As of this morning these were slight 'wins' for Trump.

Trump's Hail Mary

Trump is letting the obvious states go on auto-pilot hoping they just win "on their own". Instead, he is focusing on the 'rust belt': MN, MI, WI, and PA. The reason is he may have no other choice. There's some rumbling that he's already lost NV in the early vote. (I tend to agree). If so, NH is not going to help, and he needs to take a bigger state. These are his best chances.

The Big Mo

Some pundits like to stress 'mo' or momentum. Up until now, Trump had it, but as of the morning there was the most subtle shift back to Clinton to a +3. But, we are about to go into a statistical 'dark zone'. It's like those old movies where the hero and the villain fall into the water, and we're waiting to see who comes up.

My Numbers

So, I looked at them and they've held so far. I'm not changing them except for a 1% or so. There are ways I could do better, but I'm just going to declare myself a genius for now and leave them alone. They don't mean much now but the take away is:

• Trump's ceiling is 46% and Clinton's is 50%
• Votes to Jill Stein are taken from Clinton
• Votes to Gary Johnson are mostly taken from Trump

What to Watch Tomorrow Night

If you're like me, I'm watching with a bottle of whisky and a paper bag for when I hyperventilate. So, here's what to watch for to know when you can relax (a little).

Watch NH and NC. These states are on the East Coast and close at 7 and 7:30 PM. With luck we can get some assurance by 9 PM EST. If Trump looses NH or NC, his path to 270 becomes unlikely. Not impossible, but enough that I can put the paper bag down.

If he loses FL, it's basically over for Trump, but I have a feeling FL won't have results until late in the night. On the other hand, it is a East Coast state with early voting, so it could, also, make the night shorter. If any unexpected red state, like GA flip to blue, he's in just as much trouble.

If an unexpected blue states, like those in the rust belt, flip red, than we are in for a long night. I might have to just hide under my covers in the fetal position for the rest of the night.

If you want to watch with more detail, including which counties to monitor, here's a nifty link.

Of course, there is always a chance Trump could win until all the votes have been counted, so you can relax if the news is good, but don't drop your guard.

The Senate

I haven't talked much about, but that something to watch too. Right now, it's a straight 50-50 chance on which party controls the Senate. Here's the states to watch: PA, NV, NH, and MO.

Democrats need to get 3 of the 4. If you want more, here's a link.

So, What’s Next for the Ol’Gadfly

To begin with, this is my last daily update. My plan is to spend more time on non-political writing. (Yes, I do think of other things besides politics, though not much. Firsts, there’s eating, sleeping…. I know there’s more. Let me get back to you on that.) But, I do intend to continue this blog and post regularly. I’m thinking about once a week, but we’ll have to see,

Obviously what I write can depend on who wins tomorrow. If Trump wins, no I will not spend all my time writing about him. I want to give information that’s useful and not just rant. You know stuff like how to sneak out of the country, what to do if you survive a nuclear war, how to make food out of plasterboard….

But seriously, except for the occasional ‘meteor warning’ post, most of what I've planned is the same if Clinton wins. As I mentioned in my 2nd post, So Why Am I Here Today?, I’m engaging in some ‘short term hypocrisy’, so I will start by walking that back. I’ll then to go back to the more bipartisan writing I’d hope to start with. I may stay provocative (if Clinton wins) or less to avoid being sent to the gulag (if Trump wins). And no, I will not stop telling Trump jokes.

My hope is to do mostly what I call 'evergreen' posts, writings that are not connected to current events, such as 'what effect do taxes really have on the economy',  'what should be the purpose of third parties', or 'can politicians be honest'. Not to mention, adding to what I already started: coalitions, crazy ideas, and 'Many people are saying..."

If I talk abut Trump at all, I expect them to be 'Trump adjacent', not about him but the fallout and legacy of this election: 'the coming Republican Party fight', 'what we've learned from him', and 'how to watch for next Hitler'. But, don't worry. Those won't be right away. I know you're sick of him, and I have to recover from my PESD (Post Election Syndrome Disorder).