State of the Election 2016
Trump Meteor Forecast
The Trump Meteor has a 36% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.Last Nights Bombshell
...was a fizzle. Not that no one tried. We had:- More Wikileaks (yawn)
- In 2006, Trump and a consensual affair (Do you believe I have to point out it was 'consensual')
- New evidence that Melania Trump was an illegal immigrant
- Officials found guilty in Christie's Bridgegate scandal
- Democrats want FBI leaks investigated
That Beyonce wore a pantsuit is making as much noise. There is of course the non-news news that Comey has not declared all the emails duplicates.
The Horse Race
So, it is most likely to be about how each candidate is doing for the next 4 days. Looking at Real Clear Politics the polls have stabilized for the last 6 to 7 days: 46% to 48% Clinton and 45% Trump 2-way, 45% Clinton and 43% Trump. We can think of this as Clinton has rallied her Excitables and Borings, while Trump has rallied all of his Hopeys and Trumpys. As long as this is the case, the election is all about turnout now.
As I said before, polls start to become less useful this close to the election, so I will only be using the FiveThirtyEight forecast from now on. If I see something that changes in the polls. I'll let you know,
The most important forecast number is the one I've been giving you in the 'Trump Meteor Forecast'. If we want to treat it as a poll, we can use the forecasted popular vote. (Today is 48.5% Clinton, 45.5% Trump, and 4.5% Johnson).
That's, though, to give us a value we are more familiar with. In the end, what is more important are how each state is doing. For as long as I can remember, if Clinton wins every state she is ahead in, she wins. Trump has to win all of his, and take one from her. So, I usually watch these four states: NH, NV, NC, and FL (of course).
Clinton is currently forecasted to win NH, while Trump is only slightly above 50-50 for the rest. Of course, any of the other states could be switched, but the stats say those are the only ones where Trump has any kind of chance. I showed you a neat graphic for this in the last post, but I'll probably refer to them as this:
Trump needs to take: NH
Trump needs to win: NV, NC, and FL
Different forecasting models could give you a slightly different list of states, of course.
Warning: Don't get to comfortable counting states. States tend to swing together. So, Trump winning FL might mean winning NV more likely. (I just made that up, but you get the point), In other words, winning 3 states is not 3 times as hard as winning one
Now, you will hear about Trump trying to win PI, MI, or WI, and Clinton trying to win AZ or OH. Maybe they know something the rest of us don't, trying to fake out the other side, defend against the other, help out senators and congressmen, etc. Trump likes to have rallies when he as to be there for another reason such as fundraising. The point is don't let that confuse you.
Then There's the Weird Stuff
The FiveThrirtyeEight also gives the chance of crazy outcomes: recounts, deadlock. etc. The big one that needs to be point out is Trump's chance to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote (currently 12%). This is unusually high, and Trump has a low chance to win. Therefore, if Trump wins, he has a 1 out 3 chance of it being like Bush in 2000. This means that the "democratic advantage" in the Electoral Map is not has high as most think.
The Early Vote Gets to Ignore All of This
There are currently 150 million registered voters. With an historic turnout of 60%, that's 90 million votes. Last I heard, 30 million have already voted. Given that a third have already voted does that affect the odds.
Conventional wisdom is no. The polls and forecast don't use them as a factor. In some polls, they treat early voters as likely voters and affect the forecast that way. There is some thought that since so much has happened over the last week it affected earlier votes differently. (As in those that voted before the Comey letter, than after). Conventional thought is that early voters are resolved voters making it no difference, but expect this point to be debated well after the election.
However, early voting does mean turnout, which is decisive in this election.
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