State of the Election 2016
Trump Meteor Forecast
The Trump Meteor has a 35% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.What a difference 1 point makes
Today Trump and Clinton poll numbers have not changed in the Real Clear Politics poll average, 45% Trump and 47% Clinton (43% and 45% 4-way). So, my current numbers are holding, but just. As is, every pro-Trump voter would have in this stat, and any rise means the numbers have to be re-evaluated. I'm reviewing them as we speak, in case that happens tomorrow.The other question is can Clinton stay at or above 47%. Common wisdom is that Trump can't go above 46% (it would be the first time ever). However, until I can find reason, Clinton could go lower than 46% and that is scary. (However, so far her numbers have been holding. I just haven't been able to support it with any math).
2-Way vs 4-Way
I've keep referring to 2-way versus 4-way polls. (Keep your dirty jokes to yourself). Just as a reminder, 4-way polls include Third Party (Gary Johnson and Jill Stein). 2-way polls don't. You could say, I should be only referring to 4-way polls. All four will be on the ballot after all, but the expectation is that as we get closer the 4-way polls move closer to the 2-ways (which is exactly what's happening). That can give you a distorted view if you only look at the 4-way early in the race. In the FiveThirtyEight forcast models, you can see that where they forecast the popular vote.What you may have noticed is that I use the 4-way numbers to predict the lowest candidates can go and the 2-way numbers to predict the highest. This makes sense when you think about it.
Of course now that we move closer to the end of the race, we have to look at the 4-way more. The best policy is to only use these polls as a general guide anyway.
Times running out for the polls
The numbers today go back to Oct 24th and a lot has happened then. By Election Day, these numbers will have to be too far in the past, and I'll have to rely more on forecasts and projections. Of course, there will be polls going up to the day, but I don't trust individual polls. It's too easy to pick the ones that tell you the story you want. So, then I'll be just using the polls to set some boundaries.What's up with these 538 guys?
So, now that we are talking forecast, you should have notice I've been using those from FiveThirtyEight. I have a good understanding as to what they are doing, they had a good performance in the last election, and most importantly they give Trump the best chance.Basically they use state polls only (no national polls) to give each state a ranges of outcomes. Then, they run the possibilities through a computer simulation several thousand times. Of course, there's a lot more details, but that's about as much as we can go into.
If you want to follow them yourself, what you most need to know is that there are three models:
The Now-cast does not make any projections into the future. It just takes the chances of winning the states and pretends the election was today. From following the guys that make this, they have little respect for this model, and kind of wish they never included it. I just use this as if it was a tracking poll.
The Polls-only looks at the chances and project what they will be on Election Day from how the numbers are trending. (For you mathy types they basically apply a linear regression.) This is their favorite and has become the only one they talk about about. You could (and probably should) just look at this one.
The Polls-plus uses the Polls-only and adjust it with political science to include factors such as the economy, past history, approval ratings, etc. As time has gone on, they've referred to this model less and less probably because this election is looking less conventional. I have been using this one in the Trump Meteor Forecast only because it give a more pro-Trump chance.
One neat little graphic I've found useful is this one (Polls-only)
This quickly tells you what states the candidates need to win and how likely they are to win them. The darker the color the best chance for the candidate.
From here we see that Trump needs to win every red state and still has to take a state away from Clinton. His best shot is to take New Hampshire.
Clinton, on the other hand, does have to hold on to all of the blue states, but does not have to take any of Trump. Also, she has a better chance to take Nevada, Florida, or North Carolina, than Trump has of taking New Hampshire.
Polls. Polls. Polls All you want to take about is polls
Yeah, it's been a lot about the polls lately. Truth is that's what most of the news has been about. But how about some other campaign stuff.Before the Comey letter, Clinton was going into red states and trying to help win Senate seats. Now, she gotten more "defensive". Looking at the graphic you can see why. Both candidates have made their strategy clear including telling it straight to reporters.
Clinton knows she just has to keep Trump in check. She also has a lot of prominent figures that can campaign for her: the President, the First Lady, and the Vice President. This lets her campaign go into all of the blues states to keep Trump from winning them. She has been taking advantage of the good ground operation the campaign built. If Trump does get to even in the polls with her, then who can turnout the vote wins. That's why she working so hard to get people to early vote.
Trump only has Trump. He can only be in so many places at once. So, he has also focused on the blue states, trying to win one. He just has to hope the red states go to him on their own. Since, the best he can do is get to even, he knows it's going to be about turnout, but he has not built up a turnout operation. Instead, the focus has been "suppressing" Clinton voters. (This is actually the words the Trump campaign has used, but they've also made it clear that they mean negative advertising. Though still this has created some suspicion of more nefarious measures).
Can We Talk About Some News Here
Yeah, I know it's been all about polls and horse race. That's not just me, however. It's not that there is no news, it's that there's too much. If you do any googles, you'll see different articles about the candidate every hour or so. You almost get the feeling that the media is throwing the kitchen sink at them.The reason is less nefarious. The journalists have been working on investigative stories for awhile now, especially about Trump. However, with only a few days left, they have to publish what they've got or just throw all their research into a drawer. So, we have been inundated with half-done investigative stories.
And tomorrow is Friday. I'm not sure why, but lately breaking stories have been happening on Friday: the Comey letter, the Grabby video, etc. So, I'm anticipating it. Here are some guesses.
- Comey reports that all emails were duplicates (fingers crossed).
- Woman claiming Trump raped her when she was 13 finally comes forward.
- Trumps taxes are leaked.
- President Obama announces that Mosul has been captured.
- Violence will occur from some white supremacist. Unfortunately, that already happened. Black church burned and 2 policeman killed in Iowa.
- The Clinton Campaign admits to having 156 volumes of opposition research on Trump. Podesta states "we have sex scandals, bribery attempts, racist statements and more. We just could not find anything worse than what Trump as already done on the campaign."
- Trump declares that he has secretly been in love with Rosie O'Donnell.
- Robert LiButtie, the mob figure, who was Trump's friend. Turns out to be Goldy Digits.
- Clinton and Trump tear off their mask revealing that they are Kang and Kodos from the Simpsons
Just as a heads up. I am intentionally going to be late on Friday's update just in case any of this happens,.
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