Sunday, November 20, 2016

How We Got Here - Post 1

The 2016 Election Starts with America's 1st Constitution

Understanding our politics today begins with knowing how the United States first formed


We will soon be inaugurating one of the most unique presidents in history. Perhaps I’m right, and we will see one of the historically worst presidencies in American history. Perhaps I’m wrong, and we will see one the best and most transformative. Or, it could be neither, defined by partisan gridlock and run of the mill legislation. I’m willing to give some time before I make more conjecture, because I’d rather be wrong than right. And, more importantly, we first have to talk about how we got here.

In July 12th 1776 (yes, I’m going back that far), the US wrote it’s 1st constitution, the Articles of Confederation. Hold on a minute. 1776? 1st Constitution? That’s just 4 days after signing the Declaration of Independence, and are you saying there was more than one constitution? Yes, I am. There were two, the Articles of Confederation ratified in 1777 and the United States Constitution written in 1787 and ratified in 1789. (The Revolutionary War ended in 1783.) So, for all the time of the Revolutionary War and 4 years after, American was a Confederacy, not a Federacy. For, us to understand where we are today, we have to remember that at the time of the founding, we were not Americans. We were Virginians, New Yorkers, Georgians, Philadelphian, etc.

However, the Confederacy was not working. We soon understood that divided, we lacked effective foreign affairs, ability to handle an inter-state economy, a strong defense against threats, and more. So, the United States Constitution was a compromise between those who wanted each state to have autonomy against those who wanted a stronger central government.. As is the nature of comprise, both sides left not fully satisfied. The argument was not truly settled until the Civil War, but that comes later. Even today, the argument still surfaces in under the idea of “State’s Rights”.

At the top of the conflict between Confederates and Federalists was, you guessed it, slavery. Now, let just start by saying that slavery is an evil institution gladly scourged (mostly[1]) from the face of the Earth. However, for us to understand the struggle of today, we cannot confused explaining the rationality of slavery as excuse or justification. We need to understand that at this time, those in governments had grown up under the rule of a monarchy where human inequality was the expected norm. More importantly, we have to understand that the leaders of the Slave States, we’re only rich and powerful man because of slavery. Not that they did not understand how slavery contradicted the founding principles of the country, However, if slavery were to be abolished, not only would the leaders of Slave States become poor and powerless, the states they were responsible for would be driven to economic collapse. For the leaders of Free States, ending slavery was a matter of morality. For the leaders of Slave States, ending slavery was an existential crisis.

And, let us not be too focused on the issues of slavery. Slavery is the top of a pyramid of issues that go back to the first walled city, rural versus urban. Walk down the streets of a big city like New York, and think about what it takes for everyone to live so close together. Imagine how you would feel about guns and pollution. How would you feel about fire regulations when a burning building can take out a city. You need rules and government to handle all those small issues that turn big when so many people live close together.

Now imagine, you live on a farm, when your nearest neighbor is at least a mile away. What others do is of little concern to you, but it takes government hours to reach you if something goes wrong. You need your gun to defend yourself, and if trouble happens your pretty much on your own. In fact, rules and regulations, especially if made for a city, can cause you to lose your farm. Those fire and fuel regulations add expenses you can ill afford, if there is a bad crop year. But for the rural dwellers matters are worse. Population and the seats of powers center in cities, not the country. A government base on city life is less likely to meet the needs of the country.

For most of human history, country folk could do little but complain. The king ruled from his castle, and you had little to say about. But, America was introducing a new form of government where the humble farmer could have as much say as a city dweller, as long as the country was not “too much democratic". That was the trick for the more agricultural Southern States. Some democracy meant no longer a king ruling from up high. Too much democracy, and those that lived in Southern States would always be subject to the whims of the more populace Northern States. So, there were compromises. The Senate, the Electoral College, and even the hypocritical and infamous three-fifths rules became compromises with the Southern States. The overall and intentional effect was to give rural voters slightly more voice than city voters.

There were many ways this struggle between rural and urban took from, and much politics that didn’t. But two ways would surface that shaped American history through to today. The first as we already mentioned was slavery, and the second was what is always fought over in politics, taxes. At the time of the founding, the main form of income for the federal government was tariffs.[2] Which tariffs you want depended on how you make your money, but in general Southern States exported and imported more than Northern States, and so would often want lower tariffs.[3] In fact, until 1913, when the 16th Amendment was passed allowing income tax, tariffs were one of the major issues that often defined politics. We’re talking about money here. That’s where the action is. And if you think, I’m exaggerating, tariffs is one of the main ways the government favor domestic products over international ones. If anti-globalism really does become one of the main goals of our current president, tariffs will again be part of the discussion.

So, there you have it. At the very beginning, the country was founded with two sides at conflict. One wanted lower taxes, less federal government, more “State’s Rights”, and attention to parochial (conservative) values. The other wanted higher taxes, more federal government, less “State’s Rights”, and more attentions to cosmopolitan (liberal) values. Is any of this sounding familiar.

And from the beginning, the system was rigged, giving a slight advantage to politicians that appealed to the rural “conservative” voter.

This is just the beginning of the story so “stay tuned”.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

What Just Happened

The Inconceivable President-Elect Trump

This will be quick because I can only write so much in my current state of shock. However, there is about to be a lot of post analysis theories, and I wanted to get in what I know before misleading ideas start to take hold.

How did he do it?

Quite simply he turned out more votes. OK that's obvious, but let see want that means isn't.
  1. He turned out a historic number of rural voters. We aren't yet done counting, but what I last saw was 120 million voted in this election. By the end, you will start hearing how many records this beats. I expect it is the highest turnout in my lifetime.
  2. The American Election system is designed to advantage rural voters. Note that as of writing this, Clinton is ahead in the popular vote and is likely to be the final outcome. He did not just get a a a lot of vote, he got the right kind of votes.
  3. He understood it was cultural not ideological. Since Romney's defeat there has been an argument between whether the Republican party needed to reach out to more minorities or get more republicans to turnout. The 'establishment' did not believe the votes where there. The 'conservatives' believed they were there, but Romney had failed to sell 'conservatism'. They were both wrong. There were more Republicans to turnout, and they did not care about 'conservatism'.

How did we get it wrong?

For the record, we didn't (though more in CYA way). I had from the beginning kept insisting there was a chance and warned of  Shy Trump voters. Before Election Day, Clinton was up +3%. The estimate of Shy Trump voters is 2.5%. Clinton is likely to win the popular vote by 0.5%.

However, I suspect the Shy Trump voter was really a Quiet Trump voter. I don't think they lied to pollster. I think they just didn't pick up the phone.

Nate Silver did warn that a 3% polling error, which has happened before, makes Clinton lose. He also warned that the nature of the Electoral College, meant it was easier to break through Clinton's 'firewall'. Both proved true.

What I did get wrong was that I underestimated his chances of him winning the rust belt. (Though this was more in private. In posts, I mentioned the possibility. I just didn't emphasize it.)

What did not happen?

OK this is the more important point. We are about the blame a lot of people and circumstances, and I need to voice what I learned watching the election so closely before everyone starts jumping on them.
  1. No one failed to turn out. Clinton gave maybe the best GOTV in modern history. We can argue a few votes here and there. The votes just weren't there.
  2. There was voter suppression or shenanigans. Again remember that there was a record turnout on both sides. The Trump campaign never showed the level of organization to do so at a national scale, and the places where there might have been some, he won by enough of a margin to not have made a difference.
  3. It was all racism. Maybe some, but not all. People are just more complex than that. You have to remember this was a cultural outcry from the voters, not an ideological one. Clinton has been demonized by a consistent propaganda campaign for almost 30 years. It was like trying to convince people to side with Iran to fight England. If more 'Jebs' had voted Clinton instead of Johnson, she could have won.
  4. It was Clinton's fault. The vote was against all democratic and 'establishment' idea. Any democrat could have lost. Perhaps if the candidate had made an appeal to one or two of the issues: anti-globalism or an isolationism. But, that would have lost support from democrats and the republicans that did vote for her. Before you bring up Sanders, while the word 'socialism' became acceptable within the primary, you have no idea what a deal killer that is to most who remember or experienced communism, including minorities and especially Trump voters.
  5. It was Third Parties. Jill Stein yes. If she had not run, Clinton would have won. But for Johnson, I've done the math. Polling that was going to Johnson mostly came from Trump. In fact, the best way Johnson would have help might have been by being a better candidate. However, that is questionable. His voters more likely would have stayed home rather than vote for Clinton.

And the Comey Letter

Here I would give some blame but not has much as you think. I pointed out early that Trump had done more than suspected to motivate republicans. Then news of premium increases mobilized more. This was all before the Comey letter, and polls for Trump were already rising. The Comey letter might have taken 1% from Clinton. (Maybe more if it was affecting those that early voted. Though that does not look like it by who voted.) What it did do was allow Trump to hold on to what he had gained longer. If Comey had never sent the letter, or at least released the clearance sooner that could have made a difference. Not much, but just enough.

Before you try to blame Clinton on this let me make a few points. The email server scandal was the result of the Benghazi witch hunt by the republican congress. It looks like Comey may have sent the letter because of those within the FBI that were going to leak it. The agents were likely motivated by the 30 year propaganda campaign, and I believe they would have been doing the same to any likely candidate for president. They had been doing the same to democrats in general.

Once it became apparent, at least to democrats, that FBI agents were trying to influence the election, polls for Clinton started increasing before Comey cleared her.

For you to say this would only happen to Clinton, you have to say that FBI agents that were willing to follow any accusations by Brietbart or Trump would have not done the same to any other candidate.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Election 2016 Update 11-07

State of the Election 2016

Trump Meteor Forecast

The Trump Meteor has a 30% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.

The Horse Race

Numbers are moving fast and in a pro-Clinton direction (whew). As of now.

Trump Needs to Take: NH, NV, NC, FL

But NV, NC and FL are on the razors edge. As of this morning these were slight 'wins' for Trump.

Trump's Hail Mary

Trump is letting the obvious states go on auto-pilot hoping they just win "on their own". Instead, he is focusing on the 'rust belt': MN, MI, WI, and PA. The reason is he may have no other choice. There's some rumbling that he's already lost NV in the early vote. (I tend to agree). If so, NH is not going to help, and he needs to take a bigger state. These are his best chances.

The Big Mo

Some pundits like to stress 'mo' or momentum. Up until now, Trump had it, but as of the morning there was the most subtle shift back to Clinton to a +3. But, we are about to go into a statistical 'dark zone'. It's like those old movies where the hero and the villain fall into the water, and we're waiting to see who comes up.

My Numbers

So, I looked at them and they've held so far. I'm not changing them except for a 1% or so. There are ways I could do better, but I'm just going to declare myself a genius for now and leave them alone. They don't mean much now but the take away is:
  • Trump's ceiling is 46% and Clinton's is 50%
  • Votes to Jill Stein are taken from Clinton
  • Votes to Gary Johnson are mostly taken from Trump

What to Watch Tomorrow Night

If you're like me, I'm watching with a bottle of whisky and a paper bag for when I hyperventilate. So, here's what to watch for to know when you can relax (a little).

Watch NH and NC. These states are on the East Coast and close at 7 and 7:30 PM. With luck we can get some assurance by 9 PM EST. If Trump looses NH or NC, his path to 270 becomes unlikely. Not impossible, but enough that I can put the paper bag down.

If he loses FL, it's basically over for Trump, but I have a feeling FL won't have results until late in the night. On the other hand, it is a East Coast state with early voting, so it could, also, make the night shorter. If any unexpected red state, like GA flip to blue, he's in just as much trouble.

If an unexpected blue states, like those in the rust belt, flip red, than we are in for a long night. I might have to just hide under my covers in the fetal position for the rest of the night.

If you want to watch with more detail, including which counties to monitor, here's a nifty link.

Of course, there is always a chance Trump could win until all the votes have been counted, so you can relax if the news is good, but don't drop your guard.

The Senate

I haven't talked much about, but that something to watch too. Right now, it's a straight 50-50 chance on which party controls the Senate. Here's the states to watch: PA, NV, NH, and MO.

Democrats need to get 3 of the 4. If you want more, here's a link.

So, What’s Next for the Ol’Gadfly

To begin with, this is my last daily update. My plan is to spend more time on non-political writing. (Yes, I do think of other things besides politics, though not much. Firsts, there’s eating, sleeping…. I know there’s more. Let me get back to you on that.) But, I do intend to continue this blog and post regularly. I’m thinking about once a week, but we’ll have to see,

Obviously what I write can depend on who wins tomorrow. If Trump wins, no I will not spend all my time writing about him. I want to give information that’s useful and not just rant. You know stuff like how to sneak out of the country, what to do if you survive a nuclear war, how to make food out of plasterboard….

But seriously, except for the occasional ‘meteor warning’ post, most of what I've planned is the same if Clinton wins. As I mentioned in my 2nd post, So Why Am I Here Today?, I’m engaging in some ‘short term hypocrisy’, so I will start by walking that back. I’ll then to go back to the more bipartisan writing I’d hope to start with. I may stay provocative (if Clinton wins) or less to avoid being sent to the gulag (if Trump wins). And no, I will not stop telling Trump jokes.

My hope is to do mostly what I call 'evergreen' posts, writings that are not connected to current events, such as 'what effect do taxes really have on the economy',  'what should be the purpose of third parties', or 'can politicians be honest'. Not to mention, adding to what I already started: coalitions, crazy ideas, and 'Many people are saying..."

If I talk abut Trump at all, I expect them to be 'Trump adjacent', not about him but the fallout and legacy of this election: 'the coming Republican Party fight', 'what we've learned from him', and 'how to watch for next Hitler'. But, don't worry. Those won't be right away. I know you're sick of him, and I have to recover from my PESD (Post Election Syndrome Disorder).

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Election 2016 Update 11-04 and 11-05

State of the Election 2016

Trump Meteor Forecast

The Trump Meteor has a 36% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.

Last Nights Bombshell

...was a fizzle. Not that no one tried. We had:
That Beyonce wore a pantsuit is making as much noise. There is of course the non-news news that Comey has not declared all the emails duplicates.

The Horse Race

So, it is most likely to be about how each candidate is doing for the next 4 days. Looking at Real Clear Politics the polls have stabilized for the last 6 to 7 days: 46% to 48%  Clinton and 45% Trump 2-way, 45% Clinton and 43% Trump. We can think of this as Clinton has rallied her Excitables and Borings, while Trump has rallied all of his Hopeys and Trumpys. As long as this is the case, the election is all about turnout now.

As I said before, polls start to become less useful this close to the election, so I will only be using the FiveThirtyEight forecast from now on. If I see something that changes in the polls. I'll let you know,

The most important forecast number is the one I've been giving you in the 'Trump Meteor Forecast'. If we want to treat it as a poll, we can use the forecasted popular vote. (Today is 48.5% Clinton, 45.5% Trump, and 4.5% Johnson).


That's, though, to give us a value we are more familiar with. In the end, what is more important are how each state is doing. For as long as I can remember, if Clinton wins every state she is ahead in, she wins. Trump has to win all of his, and take one from her. So, I usually watch these four states: NH, NV,  NC, and FL (of course).

Clinton is currently forecasted to win NH, while Trump is only slightly above 50-50 for the rest. Of course, any of the other states could be switched, but the stats say those are the only ones where Trump has any kind of chance. I showed you a neat graphic for this in the last post, but I'll probably refer to them as this:

Trump needs to take: NH
Trump needs to win: NV,  NC, and FL

Different forecasting models could give you a slightly different list of states, of course.

Warning: Don't get to comfortable counting states. States tend to swing together. So, Trump winning FL might mean winning NV more likely. (I just made that up, but you get the point), In other words, winning 3 states is not 3 times as hard as winning one

Now, you will hear about Trump trying to win PI, MI, or WI, and Clinton trying to win AZ or OH. Maybe they know something the rest of us don't, trying to fake out the other side, defend against the other, help out senators and congressmen, etc. Trump likes to have rallies when he as to be there for another reason such as fundraising.  The point is don't let that confuse you.

Then There's the Weird Stuff

The FiveThrirtyeEight also gives the chance of crazy outcomes: recounts, deadlock. etc. The big one that needs to be point out is Trump's chance to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote (currently 12%). This is unusually high, and Trump has a low chance to win. Therefore, if Trump wins, he has a 1 out 3 chance of it being like Bush in 2000. This means that the "democratic advantage" in the Electoral Map is not has high as most think.

The Early Vote Gets to Ignore All of This

There are currently 150 million registered voters. With an historic turnout of 60%, that's 90 million votes. Last I heard, 30 million have already voted. Given that a third have already voted does that affect the odds.

Conventional wisdom is no. The polls and forecast don't use them as a factor. In some polls, they treat early voters as likely voters and affect the forecast that way. There is some thought that since so much has happened over the last week it affected earlier votes differently. (As in those that voted before the Comey letter, than after). Conventional thought is that early voters are resolved voters making it no difference, but expect this point to be debated well after the election.

However, early voting does mean turnout, which is decisive in this election.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Election 2016 Update 11-03

State of the Election 2016

Trump Meteor Forecast

The Trump Meteor has a 35% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.

What a difference 1 point makes

Today Trump and Clinton poll numbers have not changed in the Real Clear Politics poll average, 45% Trump and 47% Clinton (43% and 45% 4-way). So, my current numbers are holding, but just. As is, every pro-Trump voter would have in this stat, and any rise means the numbers have to be re-evaluated. I'm reviewing them as we speak, in case that happens tomorrow.

The other question is can Clinton stay at or above 47%. Common wisdom is that Trump can't go above 46% (it would be the first time ever). However, until I can find reason, Clinton could go lower than 46% and that is scary. (However, so far her numbers have been holding. I just haven't been able to support it with any math).

2-Way vs 4-Way

I've keep referring to 2-way versus 4-way polls. (Keep your dirty jokes to yourself). Just as a reminder, 4-way polls include Third Party (Gary Johnson and Jill Stein). 2-way polls don't. You could say, I should be only referring to 4-way polls. All four will be on the ballot after all, but the expectation is that as we get closer the 4-way polls move closer to the 2-ways (which is exactly what's happening). That can give you a distorted view if you only look at the 4-way early in the race. In the FiveThirtyEight forcast models, you can see that where they forecast the popular vote.

What you may have noticed is that I use the 4-way numbers to predict the lowest candidates can go and the 2-way numbers to predict the highest. This makes sense when you think about it.

Of course now that we move closer to the end of the race, we have to look at the 4-way more. The best policy is to only use these polls as a general guide anyway.

Times running out for the polls

The numbers today go back to Oct 24th and a lot has happened then. By Election Day, these numbers will have to be too far in the past, and I'll have to rely more on forecasts and projections. Of course, there will be polls going up to the day, but I don't trust individual polls. It's too easy to pick the ones that tell you the story you want. So, then I'll be just using the polls to set some boundaries.

What's up with these 538 guys?

So,  now that we are talking forecast, you should have notice I've been using those from FiveThirtyEight. I have a good understanding as to what they are doing, they had a good performance in the last election, and most importantly they give Trump the best chance.

Basically they use state polls only (no national polls) to give each state a ranges of outcomes. Then, they run the possibilities through a computer simulation several thousand times. Of course, there's a lot more details, but that's about as much as we can go into.

If you want to follow them yourself, what you most need to know is that there are three models:

The Now-cast does not make any projections into the future. It just takes the chances of winning the states and pretends the election was today. From following the guys that make this, they have little respect for this model, and kind of wish they never included it. I just use this as if it was a tracking poll.

The Polls-only looks at the chances and project what they will be on Election Day from how the numbers are trending. (For you mathy types they basically apply a linear regression.) This is their favorite and has become the only one they talk about about. You could (and probably should) just look at this one.

The Polls-plus uses the Polls-only and adjust it with political science to include factors such as the economy, past history, approval ratings, etc. As time has gone on, they've referred to this model less and less probably because this election is looking less conventional. I have been using this one in the Trump Meteor Forecast only because it give a more pro-Trump chance.

One neat little graphic I've found useful is this one (Polls-only)



This quickly tells you what states the candidates need to win and how likely they are to win them. The darker the color the best chance for the candidate.

From here we see that Trump needs to win every red state and still has to take a state away from Clinton. His best shot is to take New Hampshire.

Clinton, on the other hand, does have to hold on to all of the blue states, but does not have to take any of Trump. Also, she has a better chance to take Nevada, Florida, or North Carolina, than Trump has of taking New Hampshire.

Polls. Polls. Polls All you want to take about is polls

Yeah, it's been a lot about the polls lately. Truth is that's what most of the news has been about. But how about some other campaign stuff.

Before the Comey letter, Clinton was going into red states and trying to help win Senate seats. Now, she gotten more "defensive". Looking at the graphic you can see why. Both candidates have made their strategy clear including telling it straight to reporters.

Clinton knows she just has to keep Trump in check. She also has a lot of prominent figures that can campaign for her: the President, the First Lady, and the Vice President. This lets her campaign go into all of the blues states to keep Trump from winning them. She has been taking advantage of the  good ground operation the campaign built. If Trump does get to even in the polls with her, then who can turnout the vote wins. That's why she working so hard to get people to early vote.

Trump only has Trump. He can only be in so many places at once. So, he has also focused on the blue states, trying to win one. He just has to hope the red states go to him on their own. Since, the best he can do is get to even, he knows it's going to be about turnout, but he has not built up a turnout operation. Instead, the focus has been "suppressing" Clinton voters. (This is actually the words the Trump campaign has used, but they've also made it clear that they mean negative advertising. Though still this has created some suspicion of more nefarious measures).

Can We Talk About Some News Here

Yeah, I know it's been all about polls and horse race. That's not just me, however. It's not that there is no news, it's that there's too much. If you do any googles, you'll see different articles about the candidate every hour or so. You almost get the feeling that the media is throwing the kitchen sink at them.

The reason is less nefarious. The journalists have been working on investigative stories for awhile now, especially about Trump. However, with only a few days left, they have to publish what they've got or just throw all their research into a drawer. So, we have been inundated with half-done investigative stories.

And tomorrow is Friday. I'm not sure why, but lately breaking stories have been happening on Friday: the Comey letter, the Grabby video, etc. So, I'm anticipating it. Here are some guesses.

  1. Comey reports that all emails were duplicates (fingers crossed).
  2. Woman claiming Trump raped her when she was 13 finally comes forward.
  3. Trumps taxes are leaked.
  4. President Obama announces that Mosul has been captured.
  5. Violence will occur from some white supremacist. Unfortunately, that already happened. Black church burned and 2 policeman killed in Iowa.
  6. The Clinton Campaign admits to having 156 volumes of opposition research on Trump. Podesta states "we have sex scandals, bribery attempts, racist statements and more. We just could not find anything worse than what Trump as already done on the campaign."
  7. Trump declares that he has secretly been in love with Rosie O'Donnell.
  8. Robert LiButtie, the mob figure, who was Trump's friend. Turns out to be Goldy Digits.
  9. Clinton and Trump tear off their mask revealing that they are Kang and Kodos from the Simpsons


Just as a heads up. I am intentionally going to be late on Friday's update just in case any of this happens,.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Why You Should Always Vote

You Should Always Vote Even If Don't Care Who's Elected

Voting is critical to our democracy, but we often choose not to. We see our reason for voting as just an extension of our desire to say who is in charge. It's more than that. No matter how discouraged or ambivalent you feel, you still want to vote. Besides just as a sense of duty, there are reason that are practical and to your direct benefit whatever you think of the candidates.

Politicians Only Respond to Votes

Here's a secret. Politicians don't like it when you vote. When you vote they have to do what you want instead of what they want. The more we vote, the harder they have to work. If only 1 person voted, and everyone else stayed home, politicians would be ecstatic. They would only have to please 1 person. If I could think of way, I'd make it impossible for politicians to know how many have voted.

So, when you stay home, politicians stop caring about you. Sure, when you vote, the politician has no idea who you are, but he does know about everyone like you. They spend a lot of money figuring out what groups vote and what groups don't. Why do you think that is? It's so they can figure out who can be ignored.

Have you noticed that politicians care more about older voters than younger voters? That's because the older you are the more likely you are to vote. Hey, younger voters, do you care about the deficit, environment, and college cost? Then vote as much as older voters do.

If you feel the government doesn't care about, you're right if you haven't voted.

Voting Makes You More Important

When I was younger, I use to get stopped a lot by police. When asked for my id, I would also hand over my voter registration card. I have no idea if it had any affect, but in one non-confrontational act I had informed the police that I was citizen, had a stable residence, and was aware if my rights.

Voting Is Good Insurance

I know people that had problems solved by contacting their local politicians. They weren't lobbyists, campaign contributors, or even wrote a blog. They were just voters. Maybe your not getting the response you need from the police, have a fine you can't pay, or need a pothole fixed. Believe or not, a lot of elected politicians will help if you have a good case, sometimes even if it has nothing to do with the government.

They'll do it because you're a voter, and they work for you. But, guess what? Most of them look to see if you voted in the last election. If you haven't, they are less likely to help you.

Note: when you do this, you want go with the most local elected official you can find. The less people they serve, the better. For example, contact your state legislator before you try your congressman. Just the fact that you know who they are makes an impression.

Voting Is Critical to Our Democracy

The whole idea of voting is that it makes our leader responsible to us. Here's the beautiful part. It does not matter if the best leader gets elected. Just the fact that leader feels responsible to us make our country more just, free, and better working.

When you don't vote, you contribute to a viscous cycle. The leaders become less responsible. The citizens become less engaged and vote less. And so on.

When you do vote, you contribute to a virtuous cycle. The leaders become more responsible. The citizens become more engaged and vote more. And so on.

The saying is really true:
"In a democracy people get the leaders they deserve" -- Joseph de Maistre
Note: For all of you who want more voting restrictions: voter ids, less voting days, tougher registration, less voting booths, testing for voters, etc. Why are you being a sucker to the politicians? Remember, they want less voters, not more. How can you believe in smaller government, less regulation, and more freedom, then hand over to politicians and bureaucrats the ability to pick who they work for. That's like letting children pick their parents. If you think the answer is to restrict voting, then shut up about government overreach. Yes I'm talking to you, Libertarians and Conservatives.





Election 2016 Update 11-02

State of the Election 2016

Trump Meteor Forecast

The Trump Meteor has a 32% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.

Poll Watching

I'm still trying to re-evaluate how to look at the polls, just like everyone else. The problem is that when Trump reached 45% 2-way that invalidated my prediction that he would still be limited by the 1st Debate and could only go to 43%. The 45% is still within the bounds set in The Final Stretch, just barely. If Trump goes higher, then I will re-work the numbers.

For Clinton, we have the opposite situation. She's stayed above 47% 2-way since the first debate, and her 4-way numbers are even more consistent. She's stayed 45% to 46% since Oct 16th. If I have to change numbers there's a chance I can raise her floor.

Having to now factor in the Obamacare news, I would not be surprised if Clinton is gets to 1% or even tied with Trump. If that scares you, it scares me. Just to bring our heart rates down, let me say that the state by state polls are telling us a less scary story. Let's suffice to say, that's looking like Clinton 48% to Trump 45%, but there's a lot of more details, I would need to go into. (There are 50 states after all.)

I'll hopefully be able to be more definitive tomorrow.

Enough with the Emails

The FBI should be able to finish their cursory investigations before the end of the week. If they can find only duplicates, Comey should make an announcement. To do otherwise, would be criminal consider the chaos he's already made. However, that's unlikely. Even if one email needs to be evaluated, that starts a bureaucratic process that goes past the election.

Fingers crossed.

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Closing Arguments

Last Chance to Stop the Trump Meteor

We have less than week, and Trump still has a chance to win. Maybe not the best chance, but still too much for me to get to sleep without drinking. So, my job is not done. I've given a lot of reasons no one should vote for him. 10 to be exact.
  1. Historic Lack of Experience
  2. Sows Distrust in Our Democracy
  3. Not Committed to the Job
  4. Does Not Learn from History
  5. Lacks Moral Courage
  6. He is a Bad Investor
  7. He has a Conspiratorial Mind
  8. He Speaks Recklessly
  9. He Can't Hire Good People
  10. Violence is Acceptable to Him
Disturbingly I have more. I just ran out of time, and to be honest, 10 is already too many. 10 is confusing and overwhelming. In truth, I would make a better argument by picking about 3. But, that's where you come in. If I've convinced you that Trump is a uniquely bad choice for president (or you had already come to that decision), I hope that I have armed you better to convince others.

So here, I would like to consolidate them to what you could say to those that have not followed me. However, first I'm going to explained what reasons I have not said.

I really mean it when I say "no one should vote for Trump". I believe I have shown that he should not be president beyond our traditional partisan argument, and wherever I could, I pointed out how no other candidates before him had these flaws. You could say Trump really is "temperamentally unfit". That's not just a campaign line.

I've avoided psychoanalyzing him. That is tough, because by Occam's Razor that is the simplest answer. All reasons I give above could be explained by a personality disorder. (Narcissism seems to the most popular one). But, this is a bad approach in politics. First, I am not equipped to make such judgments. Second, the way people campaign is often different than the way they are in private, just as you would say with an actor. However, the way politicians campaign is often how they would govern. Most importantly, that approach underestimates him. It also underestimates his campaign and his supporters. Instead, I've looked at the outcome of his behavior.

And finally, I really have not gone after his inflammatory statements. We like to say that actions matter than words, and that is true. However, politicians do little more than talk, especially during a campaign. So, where I could, I focused on his actions (or more accurately his lack of action). You can see this, in reasons 1, 3, 4, 5, and 10, which also reflect his character. Reasons 6, 7 and 9 are about his judgment and management. The rest, 2 and 8, while being about what he says, is not about the words he uses, but the harm they can cause, and how his choice to use them are irresponsible.

Again, this is a lot to take in so, let me bottom line it for you:
  • You should not vote for Trump whether you're a republican or agree with what he says. He's just a bad choice for president, period.
  • It does not matter if this is all an act. Even his act shows he should not be president.
  • No, it has nothing about him being "politically incorrect" or not being part of the "establishment".
Got all that? Good, because when that Trumpy says you're just part of the establishment and blinded by liberal media, that's what you say.

Now here's what those not convinced need to hear.

I know Trump is a bad choice, but I just can't vote for Clinton
When did you give up on the Reagan Revolution?  Because the conservative movement can survive four years of Clinton. Trump will destroy it. He'll start an international incident or war (8), cause domestic violence and riots (10), and overreach possibly causing a constitutional crisis (2). When he eventually fails he'll try to cover it up with conspiracy theories (7), and we better hope his supporters don't back him. Then every republican politician has to deal with an insurgency, if that hasn't happen already.

With Clinton, there'll be enough republicans in the Senate and House to keep her in check, and in 2 years they'll be more republicans to cover whatever loses. What happens if Trump ends up fighting with the Senate and House, which given past history is likely. What happens to the Republican Party then? If Clinton is such a failure, she'll be beaten in 2020. Trump's failures will be attached to the party and the conservative movement. That means the democrats get to redraw the district lines. Republicans might not be able to have any control in government control for a decades. They'll be a generations where Trump has defined what conservatism and the Republican Party is.

I really care who gets nominated to the Supreme Court
Forget that. Because of the filibuster, there either won't be another Supreme Court justice, or he'll be a moderate. For that false hope, the Republican Party and conservatism is destroyed. (See above).

It's OK. He'll have good people around him
Forget that. Good people won't work for him (9). So, where are the "good people" working for him now? And that should worry you. He will go into office with no understanding how government works (1) and no interest in learning it (3,4). He'll be in the control of whatever Svengali is able to manipulate him.

He's a good business man. He'll figure it out
Hah. Have you looked at his business record. Oh don't get me wrong, he's a good salesman. But that's about it. If you just look at the decisions he's made through the campaign (6), and he won't get better. He's not willing to do the work (3) or do the research (4).

All politicians are the same. There's no difference between Trump and Clinton
In any other election, I might agree with you, but Trump is different, and not in a good way (1,2,3,4,5, and 10). I know politics is discouraging, and none seem to be willing to stand to their principles, but they've all shown some respect for our democracy (2). That's what you have to ask yourself. Do you believe in democracy? This is one time in history you either show it or you don't.

The system is rigged. We need Trump to tear it all down
Honestly. It's really not that bad. It's been a lot worse. Before you ignore me, please just take a breath. You have the time to think it through and should. History is not on your side.

But, I'm willing to consider what you say. Are you ready to do the work? Because for that to happen you'll have do more than vote. After Nov 9th, Trump will be all alone (9). You think the rest of the Republican Party will help him? That means you'll have to do more than just go to a rally. You'll have to be a really dedicated activist. Because Trump is not up to it (1,3,4). As for me, I would not put myself in that situation. Yeah, he's all tough when he has a crowd cheering him on, but when he's really had to stand for something, he's failed every time (5).

We have some serious problems: immigration, trade, bad foreign policy. Only Trump is saying he'll do something.
OK. I get that. Good thing we live in a democracy. If Clinton wins, you can write your congressman and get involved in congressional primaries. Note how well it worked for the Tea Party. That's why it's good that Clinton is a panderer. If you make enough noise and good arguments, you can get what you want.

But, you need government to work, even if not that well. I know you don't see it, but Trump is going to be a monumental failure (see first answer). When that happens, you know what those craven politicians do? They don't just blame the man, they blame his idea. Just ask an evangelical conservative. Suddenly the Iraq War and Financial Collapse was their fault.

With Clinton, you can push her to do what you need, and even if you don't, there will be another, better candidate now that politicians knows what you want. With Trump, well, you better not have a single doubt about him, because if he fails it will be big, and you'll never get what you want.

In Summary
Now of course, you'll have to make all this your own. Figure out how to say them in your own words, thoughts and belief. For me, this was easy. These aren't just arguments I came up with to trick someone to my point of view. I believe every word.



Election 2016 Update 11-01

State of the Election 2016

Trump Meteor Forecast

The Trump Meteor has a 31% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.

What's Old is New Again

Would you believe. There's a chance that some voters are responding to an actually issues. On Oct 24th, the Department of Health announced a rise in premiums. You probably have heard this but not much. The news ended up 'siloed' in conservative media, and some are arguing that Trump's polls increase is mostly due to this.

Are My Numbers Wrong?

In my Oct 28th update, I set some new numbers.

39% Trumpys
4% to 6% Hopeys

43% Borings
2% to 6% Excitables

6% to 8% No-Way-No-Hows
2% to 6% Wait-n-Sees

However, Trump has had a steady raise and hit my estimated ceiling of 45%. Right now, Trump is enjoying a triple hit.
  1. A good enough performance on the 3rd Debate to encourage some Hopeys 
  2. News of higher premiums for Obamacare 
  3. The Comey notification to Congress 
The numbers are still holding, including the prediction that Clinton still leads by 2% to 3%. But, if Trump goes higher, my assumption that Trump is still defined by the 1st Debate is probably wrong. That can change everything.