State of the Election 2016
We live in interesting times
You know that means we're cursed right? But, we very well may be seeing history unfold before us, because we now have three stories that could decide the direction of our country.
There's an election I guess
As of now, Trump has lost the election. Hold I didn't say that. I won't say that until after Nov 8th, and maybe not even then. (Trump probably won't). However, the damage of the 1st Debate, video, and deserting republicans have made Trump's chances ever dwindling.
Could he save it? Probably yes. How will he do it? No clue. I know how he could, but he's definitely not doing it now and would be out of character for him to do so. He does have to do something, however.
Clinton is not off the hook. Wikileaks keeps dumping emails and other stolen data meant to damage her. So, far it has not been able to get past the Trump noise. If the Trump story ever gets boring, those reveals will start to become the major news. Trump chances would then increase, and I start drinking again.
Right now the Wikileaks reveals are mostly being talked about on conservative media.
Do not get complacent. Trump is a meteor heading towards the Earth. Right now it has about a 20% chance to hit.
The Republican Civil War
The Republican Civil War (and I'm not the only calling it this) has quieted but is still moving forward.
Paul Ryan got push back from some conservatives keeping him from taking further action. From looking at the conservative complaints, they were not in defense of Trump, but objecting to the very idea of abandoning any nominee and concern about the Trumpys in their district.
Trump performance on the 2nd Debate has rallied his Trumpys enough to use them as a threat against the Republican Party. Trump has also let out some frustration in his patented tweet tantrums, but nothing has been outrageous enough to generate news in themselves
Paul Ryan (now the face the anti-Trump faction) cannot move from his position, but if another Trump bomb erupts that changes. In other words, Trump cannot do better than he is doing now.
Who to watch is Pence. Pence is Trumps last tie to the party, and I can't believe he's betting on a Trump win. More likely he trying to decide if showing disloyalty or standing with Trump is worse for his career.
Winter Is Coming
Here is what is potentially the most long lasting as scary story developing. Most would save Trump could increase his chances of becoming president by showing contrition. reconciling with the Republican Party, and refocus his campaign on getting mov\re voters. Instead, he focused entirely on rallying and exciting his Trumpys.
In Trump is Not Hitler Yet, I said what kept him from becoming Hitler was the lack of Trumpy fanaticism. However, right now Trump is doing what would be required to change that. Worse, his movement is becoming self-sustaining, so this does not end after Nov 8th.
Who to watch is Kellyanne Conway. She is his campaign manager, and probably best person working for him. If she leaves it means the Trump campaign is no longer about getting elected president. It's about forming a TV network or third party.
It's these kinds of events that lead to the Yet.
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