State of the Election 2016
Trump Meteor Forecast
There's an Election I Guess
You may have been hearing some consternation, and boasting, about recent changes in the polls. If you followed me so far, you know that's not unexpected. I totally called it, and a lot of people are giving me credit. Now let's see if it goes down again.
Here it get's a little complicated. We have to always remind ourselves that the polls we are seeing today are about events last week, in other words the 3rd Debate. The polls we see in the future will be from the quieter period, where we mostly talked about how far behind. Then once the polls start to reflect what's going on right now, we'll be voting. So, likely we'll see a small oscillation for Trump around 41% 2-way and 40% 4-way.
More significant is that Gary Johnson dropped to 5.5%, the total Third Party is bellow 8%. There's not much of those votes left, but they have to go somewhere.
Drip Drip
Because Trump's chances of winning have decreased, what he says and does matter less, so his antics consume less of the news. That means there's more time to talk about what Wikileaks.
Today's was pretty bad. A released memo shows more clearly how the Bill Clinton gained financially through connections with the Clinton Foundation. And there were others. But, each of the stories get complicated, which is why I'm not trying to explain them. The take away is that complicated stories don't get far in the two weeks of an election.
What they confirm is that the Clinotons engaged in influence peddling to be come rich. What so far has not been shown is any breaking of laws or policy done for money. When that happens, we are talking real news. Without it, Trump may gain votes, but Clinton doesn't lose any. In other words, she still wins.
Here it get's a little complicated. We have to always remind ourselves that the polls we are seeing today are about events last week, in other words the 3rd Debate. The polls we see in the future will be from the quieter period, where we mostly talked about how far behind. Then once the polls start to reflect what's going on right now, we'll be voting. So, likely we'll see a small oscillation for Trump around 41% 2-way and 40% 4-way.
More significant is that Gary Johnson dropped to 5.5%, the total Third Party is bellow 8%. There's not much of those votes left, but they have to go somewhere.
Drip Drip
Because Trump's chances of winning have decreased, what he says and does matter less, so his antics consume less of the news. That means there's more time to talk about what Wikileaks.Today's was pretty bad. A released memo shows more clearly how the Bill Clinton gained financially through connections with the Clinton Foundation. And there were others. But, each of the stories get complicated, which is why I'm not trying to explain them. The take away is that complicated stories don't get far in the two weeks of an election.
What they confirm is that the Clinotons engaged in influence peddling to be come rich. What so far has not been shown is any breaking of laws or policy done for money. When that happens, we are talking real news. Without it, Trump may gain votes, but Clinton doesn't lose any. In other words, she still wins.
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