Election 2016 Update 10-10

State of the Election 2016

Today is a big day, and for more reasons than you think. The catch, we won't know fully until tomorrow.

Happy Registration Day

For most states Oct 10th is the last day for voter registration, and that means a lot this election. The Trump campaign constantly states it will will be drawing in new voters. Well to vote you have to be registered. So, tomorrow we will know if this is Trump proving how clever he really is or is just another delusion, a la Obama is a secret Muslim. I'm betting on delusion.

And of Course There's the Debate

Perhaps the biggest surprise is that this is not the biggest news. The release of the video, preempted this and the fallout means a lot more. The debate is just a chapter in that story. But let's see how it went.

In truth, if a candidate does not win a debate decisively, it's really a tie (at least for that night). The early conscensus is that Clinton won marginally, so it's really a tie. Now begins the post debate battle. In that contact, here are the relevant points.

• Trump did not sufficiently apologize (you will soon see why this is most signifiicant)
• Trump succeeded in making his Trumpys very happy (more soon to see significance)
• Clinton did not decisively end Trump's arsenal of arguments (Bill's past indescresions, the email server, and Wikileaks reveals).
• Trump did not go bat crap crazy

What's Clinton Going to Do?

That Clinton still has some pending arguments is the least of these stories. In fact, I doubt you will hear anything about them, except for constant banter on Conservative media. But, they're not going away. In this debate, Clinton ignored them, but I doubt she will be able to in the future.

Also, she was not able to push the "Trump is temperamentally unfit" argument. Though, Trump has not escaped that and the week is young.

However, depending on how the Republican and Trump deals with what is next, none of it may matter.

Of Course You Know, This Means War

Since the housing collapse at the end for George W. Bush's presidency, the Republican Party has been on the verge of civil war. You would think this was the rise of the Tea Party, but once Trump was nominated, that clearly was just a preamble. As I detailed The Final Stretch the video tapes have introduced a schism. And here's the really big news.

Before the debate, Trump supporters rallied outside his hotel, so now Trump has good evidence that his core supporters, Trumpys, are still with him.

Paul Ryan had a conference call with rest of the party, deciding what to do next.

Now we see what was the real out come of last nights debate.

1. Trumps apology lacked any contrition, and the Republican Party knows, the damage of video will continue (and whatever else might be still to come). Winning the debate did not matter, The apology mattered. There is no cover for republican deserters to return, and the reason for further desertions are still there.
2. Trump believes he won the debate, and he is receiving lots of validation from his Trumpys. Trump now thinks he has leverage.
3. Trump has already threatened to punish republican deserters.

When one side wrongly believes they can win, war is certain.