The Trump Meteor has a 26% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
Update on the Techy Stuff
In my last update, I went over the technological aspects of Comey's announcement. In part, I voiced some consternation as to why some basic scanning had not been done. Today, I have an answer to that question. Remembering that the investigation up till late last week only involved Anthony Weiner, the FBI needed a new warrant to go into Huma Abedin's emails. They obtained that warrant today.
“They’ll narrow them down to look at just those dating from the time Hillary Clinton was secretary of state. Then they’ll weed out any that are not about government business. Agents will use automated software to search what’s left for duplicates they’ve already found during the investigation of the Clinton e-mail server. Any that remain will be checked for classified information,” Williams reported on “Today” this morning. “Officials say there’s no way to tell how long that will take. But they say if it goes quickly, and nothing classified is found, the FBI could say so within the next few days. It largely depends on how many of the e-mails are duplicates and how many are new to the investigators.”
Abedin is also stating that she does know how the emails got there, suggesting that it may have happened through an automated process (and assuming she is telling the truth). This would be similar to what I described would happen if she had setup her email account on it. Though there are other automated process that I would need more information before ruling out.
Maybe Not Clinton
A subtle point is that none of the statements have just used the word "Clinton" . The statements have used the word "Clinton Investigation". We tend to forget that the investigation towards the private servers was not just about Clinton. It was about everyone using the servers. So, the Comey statements may only be considering Abedin as culpable. Again, another detail that should have been clarified.
This is me reading in between the lines, so remember to consider that as you form your own opinion.
The Trump Meteor has a 21% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
Yes I Know It's Saturday
As I was writing this, news hit that FBI Directory Comey had notified congressman of potential new Clinton emails found. If you've had any contact with a human being or electronic device, you've already heard about this. Comey statement amounted to "I may have found something important, maybe not. I'll tell you later. I don't know when.". That has us all chasing our tails.
So, I wanted to let the story brew a bit.
Is the Trump Meteor Going to Hit Now?
How has Trump chances of becoming president change? The short answer is that his chances have probably risen to 30% and in an extreme case 50%. Obviously, that's all subject to what polls say that have not come out yet.
So, let's look at what numbers we have.
In a previous update I gave post new Post Labor day numbers.
39% Trumpys 4% to 6% Hopeys
43% Borings 2% to 6% Excitables
6% to 8% No-Way-No-Hows 2% to 6% Wait-n-Sees
Now nothing this bad has happened to Clinton since Labor Day, so can we still say her 43% base still holds or do we need to go back her pre-Labor Day of 39%? I believe we can still stay with the 43% for two reasons. One, the No-Way-No-Hows (Johanson and Sten voters) has been around 7% lately, so attitudes towards Third Parties definitely changed. Two, the numbers were formed by Trump's horrible performance from the 1st Debate. Comey did not suddenly prove Trump is now 'temperamentally fit'.
The news analysts are saying this will not take votes away from Clinton, but would add votes to Trump. This translates to Clinton being ahead by 2% to 3% instead of 5% to 6%. I would agree with this, but I'd like to back it up with more math.
If we assume that No-Way-No-Hows are going to be 6% and Trump can't beat a post-Debate high of 43%, the Clinton starts with 43%, leaving 6% of Excitables/Wait-n-Sees for her. Her maintaining 2% to 3% lead looks quick likely with those numbers. That coincides with where the race was Oct 2 to Oct 3, which is 30% in the FiveThirtyEight Nowcast.
Here's the good news. Comey provided such vague information, the news cannot talk about about this for 10 days. If Comey provides more details, the news is more likely good (all were duplicates, etc.) for Clinton, because the bad outcomes (ground to reconsider prosecution, etc.) take longer to reach. Clinton also has all the tactical advantages if the race goes to turnout, and over 12 million have already voted.
Tech Talk
I'm not going to go into all the details of the story because you can get that from all the professional news sources. However, fortunate for you, I understand the technology well, and here I can add.
Following some bread crumb, I can speculate with some confidence that the Clinton servers were using Microsoft Exchange Server. That's important because different email software stores emails differently. In all cases, emails are stored on the server. With Microsoft Exchange Server the emails can potentially be stored in two other devices: the one that received the email and the one that sent it. So, now we can see why Huma Abedin laptop becomes part of the investigation.
The next thing to know is how emails get deleted. When Office 'deletes' an email, it archives it instead, in case you want the email back and technical reasons we don't care about. But the archived emails are marked as what can be removed if you need more space on your hard drive. Then, the OS deletes the emails.
However, when an OS deletes a file, it does not delete the data. It removes knowledge of where the file is on the hard drive. You can think of it as more the OS 'forgets' the file. Now in time, that hard drive location will be re-used, but until then you can recover the deleted files with special software and some work. The company managing the servers did more. They used a software, BeachBit that overwrite those location to prevent them from being recovered.
My guess is that the FBI used a special technique that read trace magnetic field off the hard drive to read 'bleached' data. (Yep, that's some super spy type stuff there.) But, the technique cannot 100% restore the data. The FBI was left with only what Clinton had handed over, what had been sent to/from others, and the fragments they had recovered. They can never be sure they got every email.
It's a good bet, however, Abedin unlikely went to such extraordinary measures. So, you can see why there would be some hope that the FBI could find emails they had not seen before. But, any of these emails would have been duplicated on the server, and in all likelihood, the FBI has already seen them.
Now lets talk about how email gets sent. When you send an email, until it reaches the recipient, anyone with the technology to 'listen' can read it. Doing so is hard and the email is sent in mixed pieces so it's not as bad as it sounds. You can think of it as talking to someone in a crowded room where everyone is talking loudly. Someone could be listening in, but they're more likely only to hear fragments of your conversation. When you're worried about state secrets, however, that can be enough.
The only way to thwart easedropping is to encrypt the emails as they are sent. This though requires coordination between the software the sender and receiver are using. Even then, if a hacker can get into the device he can 'infect' it with software that reads the emails before and after they are secured.
This is where the story gets bad for Huma Abedin. Since Anthony Weiner also used this laptop, it could not be a secured device, and he definitely does not have security clearance. So, if Abedin sent classified emails to this laptop, she could be subject to prosecution. Currently the security clearance of Abedin is unknown, but she did have it as aide to Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.
What is still murky to me is how Clinton could be held accountable. If Abedin had set the laptop to use an email address from the private server, than it would have downloaded the emails automatically and indiscriminately. But even if Clinton had sent a classified email or Abedin had forwarded one, there still would have to prove 'intent', which is the reason she was not prosecuted before.
What is also murky is some lack of details being provided by Comey. I understand why he can't remove the possibility of none of the new emails being classified. However, I could find out if any had a classified headings within a few minutes. With a couple of days I could write a program that tells how many are duplicates. Both these facts would clarify the severity of what is being investigated.
Do I need to say this is all speculative on my part, and more information could invalidate all I have said. (Is this a cowardly qualification? You bet.)
The Trump Meteor has a 19% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
There's an Election I Guess
You may have been hearing some consternation, and boasting, about recent changes in the polls. If you followed me so far, you know that's not unexpected. I totally called it, and a lot of people are giving me credit. Now let's see if it goes down again.
Here it get's a little complicated. We have to always remind ourselves that the polls we are seeing today are about events last week, in other words the 3rd Debate. The polls we see in the future will be from the quieter period, where we mostly talked about how far behind. Then once the polls start to reflect what's going on right now, we'll be voting. So, likely we'll see a small oscillation for Trump around 41% 2-way and 40% 4-way.
More significant is that Gary Johnson dropped to 5.5%, the total Third Party is bellow 8%. There's not much of those votes left, but they have to go somewhere.
Drip Drip
Because Trump's chances of winning have decreased, what he says and does matter less, so his antics consume less of the news. That means there's more time to talk about what Wikileaks.
Today's was pretty bad. A released memo shows more clearly how the Bill Clinton gained financially through connections with the Clinton Foundation. And there were others. But, each of the stories get complicated, which is why I'm not trying to explain them. The take away is that complicated stories don't get far in the two weeks of an election.
What they confirm is that the Clinotons engaged in influence peddling to be come rich. What so far has not been shown is any breaking of laws or policy done for money. When that happens, we are talking real news. Without it, Trump may gain votes, but Clinton doesn't lose any. In other words, she still wins.
The Trump Meteor has a 17% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
There's an Election I Guess
Looks like there still is a 1% post 3rd Debate bounce. Now it is also showing in the 4-way poll. More interesting is that Gary Johnson went bellow 6% today. That has not happened since June.
The Trump Meteor has a 17% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
There's an Election I Guess
Today, the small 3rd Debate bump is starting to show.
Part of this is an artifact on how Real Clear Politics is calculating the averages. This snapshot starts at the last date included, Oct 13th.
This barely noticeable in the 4-way, where it really counts. (On Oct 13th, Trump was 39.1%. Today he is 39.9%) Let's see if it fades as I have been projecting.
The Trump Meteor has a 16% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
There's an Election I Guess
The ability to keep talking as if Trump could win is getting harder and harder for the press. Coverage of the Wikileaks reveal is increasing but not dominating the new. Turns out talking about what's in them is really boring.
What is the main election story are the senate races. (Yeah, there are more elections this year than President. Who knew?)
Going into 34 different senate races are way beyond what I could do here (and would also end up as a cure for insomnia). Instead, I've just been following the FiveThirtyEight forecast. The general outcome is that whoever ends up controlling the Senate, the margin will be narrow, and currently democrats are the favorite. In other words, exactly what I would have told you 2 years ago.
But, hey what else would we talk about? Right now the chances for democrats controlling the senate is looking good, about 65/35. They just have to get a +4 seats (given Clinton is likely to win) and republicans have to defend 24. 3 republicans already look like they have flipped (IN, IL, WI), while only one democratic (NV) is competitive, so democrats only need to win 2 more. In other words, democrats best chance is to win 3 of the the 4 most competitive: PA, NH, MO, NV. Be warned, that this forecast is very volatile, so don't get cozy.
Democrats taking the House is not worth talking about yet. (Even though many in the news are. They have to talk about something)
I've given Trump a 1% to 2% bump from the 3rd Debate, but I may have overestimated that. We still are not seeing it. In Real Clear Politics, it looks like I may have overestimated. The enthusiasm I saw the day after has waned and may have just been "happy talk" (short term denial). If I only look at the last 3 polls, I do see that 1% bump, so my genius may still become evident in a few days. But even then, the increase will be short lived.
The reports on early voting is getting muddled by partisan reporting, so I would describe it as mixed. However, I am more swayed by what I'm not hearing. Trump is working with a narrow demographic and behind in the polls. I'm not hearing about waves of registrations or votes in those demographics. Just as important, those voting now are doing so in the shadow of Trump's failings. Each vote now, is one that can't be swayed by later Wikileak reveals or other "October surprises".
Both those two, data points do not bode well for a 3rd Debate shift, hidden voters, or low turnout. There's still some time for Trump, but it's running out.
You've Disappointed Me Again McCain
I've been pushing the argument that Trump Will Not Decide the Next Supreme Court Justice, Nor Will Clinton. The reason I've been doing, so is that if you are are true conservative, this is the only reason to vote for Trump. It saddens me that so many are having to compromise their principles for a what was never possible. Well, I saw some news that supports my claim.
The Trump Meteor has a 16% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
The News
And the news of today is that... there's no real news. Everyone is talking about what they talked about yesterday. Hey, I'm not a news network or radio show. I don't have to fill dead air. Be thankful for that.
If you read Trump’s Utility Function, I made an offhand comment that the Trump Campaign is just an elaborate hoax, and all Trump really wanted to do was start his own TV network. Given how he’s been behaving since the 1st Debate, if we now applied the utility function, that would be the outcome. And I’m not the only one suggesting this. But let’s be clear. I totally called it, and a lot of people are giving me credit.
No, I left it as a offhand comment, but I never stopped thinking it. At the time, he had already gotten the nomination, and we thought he might pivot to a normal candidate. (We were all so innocent then). That possibility never left my mind, but when you’re trying to warn people about a meteor falling towards the Earth, you don’t suggest it could be an advertisement for Paramount’s next disaster movie, “The Day Trump Destroyed the Earth”.
So, first a little history. Presidential candidates that don’t intend to win are not unusual Often, their reason is to make a social impact and don’t get past their parties nomination. Bernie Sanders is a great example of this. He wanted to make sure Clinton kept to the “left” of the democratic party, when she was likely to to move “center’ or even ”right”. There have also been notable cases in history who ran as independents or obscure third parties to either make a point or keep their issues from being ignored. The first African American, George Edward Taylor[1], and woman, Victoria Woodhull, were such cases. In fact, the vast majority of third party candidate, despite what they say, don’t expect to be elected, but if they get significant numbers of votes their platform can be adopted, or at least considered by one of the two major parties. A la Libertarians.
However, lately there has been a new development in our electoral system. Running for president, at least as a republican, is a good way to make money. After McCain lost to Obama in 2008, his Vice Presidential candidate, Governor Sarah Palin, then a relative unknown, became a star to certain segments of republicans and conservatives. In a very real way, she was pre-Trumpian.
Then, shortly after returning to her governorship, she decided to quit before the end of her first term. (You betcha.) Maybe she did it because several problems were about to surface about her governorship. Maybe she was traumatized by Tine Fey.
More likely she saw the opportunity to make lots of money.
She was a conservative celebrity and like all celebrities she could make money with her name. There were books, bus tours, employment on Fox News, a reality TV show, and, yes, even a Sarah Palin network. She’s 12 hours past her 15 minutes of fame now, but she accumulated 12 million dollars before fading away. Not bad for 3rd runner up to Miss Alaska. Also from that primary, Governor Mike Huckebee turned his failed presidential run into a show on Fox. The 2012 and 2106 primary candidate Senator Rick Santorum runs a movie studio. There’s a political entertainment industry, and running for president is a good way to make money from it.[2] And let’s be clear. Anybody can get in the “political entertainment industry”. I hear they’ll even let anybody blog about it.
And then there was Herman Cain. Former CEO of Godfather’s pizza and “motivational speaker”, Herman Cain for a heartbeat looked like he might win the Republican Nomination, only to be completely undone. Since you can’t say I’m running for president to sell books, speaking tours, and the chance to complain about Obama on Fox News, I never heard Herman Cain actually say he was doing it for the money. However, given his lack of experience[3] and total lack of preparation, he would have been deluded to think he was making a real run for president. This does not look like a man who wanted to be president.
Cain, also, shows the perils of running this way. The problem was that he started to succeed. If he had gone relatively unknown, he would be selling his 5th best seller now. However, when you look like you might be president, your whole life gets scrutinized. There better not be something you don’t want the whole country to know. Oops.
So, now we have the 2016 primaries. For a hot minute, Ben Carson looked like he might be the winner. Again, Carson, the former neurosurgeon, best selling author, and “motivational speaker”[4] announced his bid for president. This time, Carson was already making his money from “political entertainment”. At the 2013 National Prayer Breakfast, he gave a powerful conservative speech. This led to a profitable career selling books, writing columns, and showing up on Fox News. Upon his announcement to run for president he made even more. But again, given his lack of preparation, he’d have to be delusional to believe he could be president. Fortunately, for Ben his undoing was only himself.
OK, maybe he was deluded. But, the point is still true. He’s made big bucks running for president, and unless Trump brings him down, he’ll make more. (If you think I’m being to hard on poor Ben, note he works for the Trump campaign now. If that is not proof of lack of judgement, I don’t know what is).
So now what about Trump. If you’ve been following me, he’s ignored all common wisdom on how to be president. And before you push back at that, he’s fighting to keep 40% of the vote. Scott Baio could get 40% of the vote. Heck, Gary Johnson is getting 10%. But 40% viewers for a media empire is a win.
Yet, Cain has show us that there is peril in doing too well. Maybe Trump never expected to win the nomination. Then again, he should not expect that to be a problem. After all, Trump has been in the public eye for decades, surely there’s nothing out there to ruin him. Like say a video tape where he confesses to sexual predation. There are, however, some big differences between our Trump and Palin, Cain, and Carson. To begin with, while there was a good financial upside for them, we’re looking at small potatoes for Trump. (Unless he still needs to pay off those rubber chickens.) There would have to be something bigger.
Another differences is those other candidates started with some true bona fides in the conservative movement. What bona fides did Trump have before running? Bitherism? (And if it's that’s, it suggests some disturbing directions I’ll have go into later.)
And of course there’s the difference that Trump actually got nominated for president. Bernie Sanders may have started out wanting only to push “left” issues, but once it looked possible that he could get the nomination, Sanders ran to win. I would not be surprised to see him try again in 2020. Once Trump got the nomination who knows how is thinking changed.
Remember that wanting to be president or start your own media empire are not mutually exclusive. Each can be a back up plan for the other. In other words, Trump could be doing this “be president” thing and the media thing is just what happens if he falls short. That’s actually a good way for a businessman to think. (Yeah, I just said Trump did something right in business. Don’t get used to it.) Having a plan B from the start, however, is a disaster for politicians. People can tell when you’re not giving your all.
When I saw Trump’s 3rd Debate performance, I was left with the impression that he still wanted to be president. By saying what Evangelicals and Conservatives wanted to hear, he may have gotten up in the polls slightly, Not enough to close the gap, but if the scenario I described in When Can We Say Trump Will Not Be President? is valid that could be enough. So, what position is ole Trumpy boy likely to be in on Nov 9th? A good guess he will have gotten at least 35% of the vote, and given what they were willing to put up with, they would be enthusiastic voters. However, they will not all translate to viewers (or followers).Some of those are not
voting for Trump. They’re voting against Clinton or for the Republican
nominee. Then, we are talking about the final months of an election
year. Those paying attention to “politics’ are much less than that. And finally, at that point he will be a loser and a toxic one at that.
In addition,
Trump will no longer have the backing of the Republican Party. When you
say “illegal immigrants are rapists” as the republican nominee for
president, those supporting you can say. “What do you mean racist? Are
you calling all republicans racist?” However, when you say it on the
Trump channel you don’t have that kind of cover. Still, Trump could still have millions of supporters for his next venture. Not enough to be president, but a great start for most other endeavors. His political future gets complicated because it's entwined with the future of the Republican Party. So for now, let's assume we're talking about Trump TV. Not idle talk at all. Those close to Trump have started to make some of the first steps. Roger Ailes and Steve Bannon, already part of the campaign, are the kind of people you might want. Now ask me if I think it will work.
Fine, don’t ask. I’m going to tell you anyway, and there’s nothing you can do about it.
First of all, history is not on his side. The Sarah Palin Channel and Al Gore’s Current TV were failures. Second, you need content. Even Trump can’t talk for 24 hours a day. What’s he going to do? Show prison shows over the weekend. (I made a funny about MSNBC.) Maybe he can resurrect Wayne’s World.
And finally, Trump will need cable companies to carry him. If he’s viewed as too toxic, they won’t. Glenn Beck was making Fox News a lot of money. They still dropped him.
What about TV on the Web. Sure, that’s what Glenn Beck is doing. It's called The Blase. So, tell me. When was the last time someone talked to you about what they saw on The Blase? He might as well do a blog. Kidding aside, this could be the most likely outcome. Then again Glenn Beck's Media Empire is currently in trouble. Using him as a model we can see where this will go for Trump. At least at the start, the viewers need to have some tech savy to know how to access this kind of media. That will cut into Trump's potential viewers. This kind of business can also take a long time to take off. Beck started in 2011. The next presidential election will be starting before he makes a profit. And, the biggest problem, as the economy gets better, fewer want to watch dark conspiracy theories. In other words, his campaign. Like Trump Airlines, he'll be bucking the current trends.
What about a website? You mean like Breitbart? Sure, Bannon’s doing great with that. Wait, Bannon’s already doing that. What’s Trump going to add? A big gold T?
What about a blog? Yep. They’ll let anyone do a blog, but the pay sucks.
Now I’m way out of my depth here. Trump should, frankly, be an expert, or at least know more than me. Maybe he can make this work. My instinct is that we’re looking at the next Trump Magazine[5].
The Trump Meteor has a 17% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
There was a Debate Last Night
After watching the final (thank God) debate, the two candidates discussed the Supreme Court, ISIS, the economy.... Oh and something about how Trump will refuse to concede the election, Instead, he promised to buy several blocks in Manhattan and form his own country, Trumpmania. He will, then, raise an army of orange uniformed Trumpmanians, confident he can hold a long siege with a large stockpile of Trump steaks and Trump water.
OK, maybe not that crazy, but close. For the first time in Modern History is a major candidate deliberately left doubt if he would respect the results of our democracy. The exact quote was:
"I will look at it at the time. I'm not looking at anything now. I'll look at it at the time."
But just as historic, this is the first time in Modern History we felt the need to ask. For a while, it looked like that would be all we talked about. As for me, I've already gone into this concern with great detail. In fact it's #2 in my 10 reasons no one should vote for him (not to mention 7, 8 and 10). So, let me get off my "high horse" and talk "horse race". (I really milked that metaphor. Didn't I).
Yes, for me this is disqualifying, but is it for most voters? Part of being in a democracy is defending acts we hate. We have to defend hate and racist speech because we believe in "free speech". We live with evil men escaping justice because we believe "innocent until proven guilty". But, none of us feel good about it.
For many voters, they might be willing to sacrifice a principle of democracy if the see a greater need for Trump, and if you are a Trump voter, you've already made such compromises. The question is did he, in this debate, reinforce those "greater needs". Yes, he did.
His answers on the Supreme Court reminded the Hopeys why they've been putting up with him. So, don't be surprise if he gets a small bump. (My feel is about 1% to 2%, but I haven't crunched any numbers yet.)
Trump's problem is that the news media cares about those democratic principles a lot, even more conservative ones like Fox News. That means they will spend time on this, and that's time taken away from what he did well. At most for a day or two. My googles and headline scans are already talking about other news.
However, Trump did nothing to bring the new voters that he needs. He only brought back some who were previously willing to vote for him, and that's just until they realize he can't win. The point of worry is, as I pointed out, he can narrow the gap to where other factors push him to a 50% chance of winning.
Unless, of course, he screws it up. If history is a guide, the good bet is that he will screw it up.
Something to Feel Good About
Senator Marco Rubio made a speech, yesterday, that earned my applause.
This is the kind of political courage and forethought that needs to be pointed out and remembered. Thank you, Senator Rubio. Moments like these make me proud of my country.
The Trump Meteor has a 15% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
There's an Election I Guess
My last two updates have been getting the clarity of "late night tweet". In my last, I just threw a bunch of numbers up, so let me explain more.
Clinton has broken her 2-way (post-primary) and more importantly 4-way ceilings, 49% and 46%. Her 2-way (pre-primary) ceiling was 50%, the 4-way is more significant. Since, this occurred at the same time, we can guess that that she is getting her Excitables not to vote Third Party.
However, there is still as small number to account for, 2%. At this point, I would remind you that these numbers were always"fudgy", so don't feel the need to jump to an explanation for such a small number.
If you feel you need for one, these would have to come from either Hopeys that have become Jebs or more likely Wait-n-Sees. If we assume no change in mindset, this can be explained by a "shuffle".
Hopeys to "Undecideds" (which get counted as Wait-n-Sees) and Wait-n-Sees to Clinton.
I also gave Trump a ceiling of 45%, but that's because I went back to the 1st Debate (Sep 26th). That's reasonable if we assume he can undo all the damage inflicted, and we really do want to work for the largest pool of data we can. However, if we work from when the video was released (Oct 7th), his ceiling is about 42% to 43%. Which we use is going to have to be a judgement call better made after tonight's debate.
As predicted, Clinton's Wikileaks and other reveals are coming up more because Trump news is starting to become routine. However, it took too long, and we are already at the 3rd Debate. She will get asked about them, in the news or not, and how she does will determine if this become "unsiloed" from conservative media.
The Republican Civil War
As of now, we can declare everyone on their own. Paul Ryan has decided to just ignore Trump by action and practically signalling it. Kellyanne Conway only appears where she does not have to answer for Trump, and Mike Pence is basically running his own campaign. In other words, all parties are assuming Trump is going to lose and thinking of theircareers after the election.
This is why you are seeing policy statements come from the campaign that Trump never talks about. The campaign staff are running as if their candidate is a generic republican and Trump does not exist.
The Trump Meteor has a 16% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
There's an Election I Guess
Yesterday I said Clinton had broken her ceiling while Trump may have a new low. Here is the breakdown starting from the 1st Debate, Sep 26th.
Trump Clinton Undecided 3rd
Low 4-way Oct 13-15th 39.1% 44.5% 7.5% 8.9%
2-way 41.4% 48.1% 10.5%
High 4-way Oct 2nd 41.1% 43.4% 6.1% 9.4%
2-way 45.0% 47.5% 7.5%
Clinton
Clinton Trump Undecided 3rd
Low 4-way Sep 26th 43.1% 41.5% 5.6% 9.8%
2-way 46.6% 44.3% 9.1%
High 4-way Oct 18th 45.9% 39.0% 9.5% 8.9%
2-way 48.9% 41.9% 9.2%
39% Trumpys 4% to 6% Hopeys
43% Borings 2% to 6% Excitables
6% to 8% No-Way-No-Hows 2% to 6% Wait-n-Sees
Here's what they were before
Trump 35% Trumpys 7% to 9% Hopeys
Clinton 39% Borings 6% to 7% Excitables
8% No-Way-No-Hows 2% to 5% Wait-n-Sees
The Wait-n-Sees and No-Way-No-Hows have hardly changed, so what we are seeing is more the "hardening of their base", Hopeys becoming Trumpys and Excitables becoming Borings.
Furthering my Cowardly Ways, this can all change after tomorrows debate.
The Trump Meteor has a 15% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
There's an Election I Guess
Trump has held a 39% 4-way since Oct 11th, so I'm willing to tentatively say this is the new count of Trumpys. More interesting, is that Clinton has reached a new high of 49% 2-way and 46% 4-way. This is probably coming from Gary Johnson who has gone down to 6%.
Gadfly, You've Been a Bummer
Yeah, I know I've been light on the humor. Given the subjects (sexual assault, violence, etc), humor has not been appropriate. Hopefully, I can break the this dire streak soon.
As the leader of our country, we expect the President to protect and unite us. We certainly don't expect him to sit back and watch when violence erupts, or worse egg it on. Yet, that is what Trump has done. Violence repeatedly occurs at his rallies, and at no point has Trump shown willingness to pull back on his rhetoric, Before you think that was a problem only earlier in the campaign, one such incident happened only a couple of days ago.
Believe or not, I was not at first so passionately against Trump as I am now. Sure, his role in birtherims and use of racism would have prevented me from voting for him. But, I was willing to listen. I'm open to new attitudes towards trade and our use of military. At least I believe we should be debating them. I even assumed that there was a "serious Trump" that could be presidential. After all, he had to get billion dollar loans from bankers. Certainly, he could not always act like this. Here is when it changed.
I realize I'm going into ancient history here (about 8 months ago), so let me give some more context. At this time, we were full in the primaries and you could write off his antics as another Herman Kane. However, as I watched this I kept asking myself, "Doesn't he realize someone could get hurt? Doesn't he realize someone could get killed? Does he even care?" That I had to even ask told me that we were dealing with something more than just democrats versus republicans. Eventually, I did what truly desperate men do. I started a blog.
In truth, this is my first and number one "reason no one should vote for him". I just decided to save the "best" (really the "worst") for last.
You will also note that I have not jumped to my usual claim of 'uniqueness'. I have not forgotten the Democratic Convention of 1968. Close to the first episodes at Trump rallies, Bernie Sander's delegate became violent at a Nevada Convention. Sanders reaction was not much better than Trumps. Guess what. If Sanders was the democratic nominee, I would be writing the same post about him. No, this is not unique and so all more troubling. This is not theory. This is history repeating itself.
At least with Sanders, there was a "deer caught in the headlights" aspect. However, Trump shows evidence of at least wanting to push the boundaries, if not welcoming violence. Maureen Dowd reported that Trump "likes the violence because it adds excitement". Even in the latest video, he is exciting the crowd, and this is when he knows violence is a possibility. He continues a barrage of statements that could easily incite.
There are more, but do I really need to list them all.
Imagine what would happen if President Trump is faced with another questionable police shooting. I know many will claim that "Black Lives Matter started it". But, if riots break out in your city, do you care who started it? Wouldn't you want a president that made that less likely?
Imagine what a President Trump would do if militia groups committed terrorist acts citing his own words. What happens when if Minutemen start patrolling the southern border again? A mosque is burned? Innocent Sikhs are shot down because a pathetic white supremacist doesn't know the difference? Timothy McVeigh had committed the 2nd largest terrorist act in American history, motivated by right-wing ideologies not so different from Trump's rhetoric.
Imagine the validation these men of hate and fear will feel with a President Trump in the White House. Imagine what happens if President Trump feels it suits his agenda.
Addendum
Since first writing this post, there was a Project Veritas video suggesting that DNC provoking violence. My first answer is that I don't care. These videos involve James O'Keefe, and I don't trust anything he is involved with. All of his work, proved to be tampered with to exaggerate or out and out lie. The stupidest response would be to act on any information provided by O'Keefe.
Secondly, so what. The most the video suggest is that a DNC consultant paid people to agitate Trump supporters. I would condemn that just as I did Bernie Sanders. In fact, the only reason I do it now is because O'Keefe is involved. But, Trump is still on the hook. The agitation only works because of the anger Trump is inspiring.
Instead, lets look at how a real leader deals with protesters. When confronted with a Trump protester, Obama did not just avoid suggesting violence, he defended those that disagreed with him.
Note how a real leader does not just try to be tough. He defends and exhibits the democratic values of our country. He stands up to the crowd and reminds us of who we are suppose to be. That's a far cry from "I'd like to punch him in the face".
Trump has had the worst three weeks I've seen in a presidential election. He's lost two debates. As of now at least 9 women have come forward accusing him of sexual misconduct. Everything I know or heard about politics says he can't win continuing what he's doing. Especially with only 3 weeks left. So when can we view him as lost.
Never. I am never going to say that. I won't jinx it. I am not going to be convinced he's lost until Nov 8th. Maybe not until Nov 9th.
All hysterics aside, of course, he has a chance to win. I can tell you how much, 15% to 20%. In conventional terms, Trump currently needs to take 6 states away from Clinton and not lose any. (Note that's easier than it sounds. States tend to change together so changing 6 states is not 6 times as hard as changing 1.)
So, how does it look like the story play out?
Trump continues campaigning in a way that will only get about 40% of the vote. At the 3rd Debate, Trump stay true to form belligerent and temperamental . On election day, Clinton wins with over 300 electoral votes,
So, how would this change?
The 3rd Debate
This is the most likely point Trump could change the race. First, Trump will have a chance to bring out choice Wikileaks reveals. Clinton has probably prepared for this, but in the past has not always dealt with this situation well. Of course, Trump will have the same issue when he has to answer for his accusations of sexual misconduct.
Trumpys are so Shy
There is a prevailing theory put forth by Trump surrogates that polls are under reporting Trump support, the Shy Trump Voter theory. The argument is that negative attitude towards Trump cause voters to lie to pollster.
Of course, there are problem with this theory. First, looking at a Trump rally, tweets on twitter, internet forums, and just asking for help at Walmart, you don't get the impression that Trumpys are shy. Second, I can just as easily argue for Shy Clinton voters, republicans who don't want to see Trump elected but can't admit they're voting for Clinton. (In other words, Jebs). And finally, the mechanics of polling trying to account for demographics and turnout has a better chance to overweight the polls towards Trump. This is a fact in at least one case.
The combinations of arguments really say there is more uncertainty in the polls than reported. But, let's say the Shy Trump Voter theory is true. The biggest supporting evidence is a discrepancy between online polls and live interview polls. This could give Trump an extra 2% to 3%.
Low Turnout
Driving low turnout is the traditional way candidates win when they are down in the polls. Answering a poll is easier than going to vote, and if one side is motivated more than the other they can win even when down in the polls. Clinton has trouble being a motivating candidate, while Trump supporters sure are motivated.
This is the most reasonable explanation for Trump's negative campaigning. Negative campaigning tends to hurt both candidates, but he's already pushed as low as he can go, Negative campaigning can only hurt Clinton.
The problem is that it's one thing to rely on turnout when you're only a couple of points down. As of today, Clinton is up by 6% to 7%, Clinton also spent time beforehand to counter this. The reason you setup a "ground game", to turnout her vote. Finally, this strategy boxes Trump in and could limits what he can achieve in the 3rd Debate.
Bottom Line
Trump can still win. It's hard but he can do it. If he has a good enough showing in the 3rd Debate and there are Shy Trump voters, he could get close enough to Clinton that turnout decides the race. So, I"m still drinking until at least Oct 20th and probably after Nov 9th.
The Trump Meteor has moved up to 18% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
Accusation Count
As of today 12 women have not accused Trump of sexual assault and harassment.
There's an Election I Guess
Trump's rhetorics has moved to sum up all his problems as one grand conspiracy. I've already covered the most disturbing aspect. In electionese, that means no one is giving much attention to Wikileaks reveals. Stay tuned.
Yes, I'm back on the Hitler thing again. But, this time, Hitler is not a stand in. I'm actually talking about the little guy with the weird mustache. And no, I'm not about to declare the Yet in Trump is Not Hitler, Yet. I'm not sounding the alarm. But Trump's last speech was disturbing in a way that needs to be pointed out.
It was billed as Trump's most angriest speech yet, which almost sounded like a joke. I mean come on, how could he get any angrier. As a matter of fact, it really was. The anger was understandable. His chances for President are collapsing, and now he's facing 10 allegations of sexual assault and harassment. He's having a tough time. I understand. I have no empathy or sympathy, but I can understand. However, where his anger went started to echo Hitler. (No, this is not a metaphor.)
First some history. As you probably all ready know, Hitler was a war hero of World War I and was fanatically patriotic to Germany[1]. Him and a lot of soldiers like him were devastated by Germany's loss, especially up until then they had been told, and believed, Germany was winning. They needed an answer, and it came in the form of a conspiracy theory, the Stab-in-the Back myth. The myth blamed Germany's defeat on domestic elements or what became known as the "November Criminals" (politicians, communists, and others including, of course, Jews). As is no surprise, Hitler became a staunch proponent of the Stab-in-the-Back myth.
With Hitler's rise in politics, the writing of Mein Kampf , and later speeches, the idea that Germany was being undermined by 'secret forces' formed. Included were international elements, what he called Internationalism. He referred to these in his speeches as 'international Stock Exchange', 'international supra-State Finance', and most famously the 'international clique'[2].
So, you can see why I felt a chill up my spine when I heard this.[3]
“Hillary Clinton meets in secret with international banks to plot the destruction of US sovereignty in order to enrich these global financial powers, her special interest friends, and her donors.”
and this
“This election will determine whether we’re a free nation, or whether we have only an illusion democracy but in are in fact controlled by a small handful of special global interests rigging the system, and our system is rigged.”
Again, I'm not banging the alarm bells. This is still not the Yet. However, as I keep reminding you, Trump is a meteor that could destroy civilization. Even if it only has a 1% chance to hit, that's enough reason to keep your telescopes pointed at the sky.
The Trump Meteor still has a 17% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
Running Out the Clock
Women are coming forward accusing Trump a harassing or assaulting them, which is causing Trump to spend his time refuting them. And, of course, more Wikileaks reveals on Clinton are coming forward.
Here's how the elections going to move at least until the 3rd Debate and possibly until election day. Whoever is in the news is likely to lose votes (that a general rule of politics, anyway). As long as Trump dominates the news, Wikileaks reveals will not hurt Clinton. Besides the question of whether Trump can keep himself out of the news, will he have lost so much that a turn to Clinton still keeps her the winner.
I don't completely understand this, but for most people events happen when its reported in the news. So, though these events happened decades or even years ago, we react as if they happened yesterday. The other side of that is when news is being drown out, like what is happening in these Wikileaks reveals, bringing the news up later is difficult. Campaigns have to find ways to re-introduce them, which the Trump campaign has yet to show any skill in.
The news is becoming more 'siloed', so if you are listening to only conservative media, you can be led to believe the Wikileaks reveals are having a bigger effect than they are. If you are watching only liberal sources you will believe the Republican Civil War is worse than it is. (This is why I'm scanning headlines from different sources). Unfortunately, post Nov 8th, these misinterpretations are what causes surprise, a sense of unfairness, and more partisanship.
The Pence Strategy
Trump is still continuing his rants, but Ryan's response is interesting. What Clinton and Ryan have learned from watching Pence is to engage Trump's attacks as little as possible, even if you let some accusations go unanswered. The has freed Ryan to campaign more to his preferred style.
The Pence technique was what politicians did before. But, after Kerry got 'swift boated', politicians responded to every accusation. Maybe the Pence strategy will be the new norm.
Right now, the Republican Civil War has stabilized and, for now, only affects the race by keeping Trump in the news. After the election is my guess when we see the next developments.
The Trump Meteor has a 17% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.
There's an Election I Guess
In The Final Stretch, I wondered if the Trumpys might be increasing. Today's polls refutes the "We got used to him" theory.
However, he still has not dropped to my original Trumpy estimate of 35% 4-way. It is now 39% 4-way. Remember though that these polls include back to Oct 3rd. So we still have not see the full extent of the video, and none of the effects of the Republican Civil War.
Clinton, however, has been staying around her e her High Point 48% 2-way and 44% 4-way. In fact, she is on the verge of breaking her 4-way by reaching 44.6%. More to follow.
You know that means we're cursed right? But, we very well may be seeing history unfold before us, because we now have three stories that could decide the direction of our country.
There's an election I guess
As of now, Trump has lost the election. Hold I didn't say that. I won't say that until after Nov 8th, and maybe not even then. (Trump probably won't). However, the damage of the 1st Debate, video, and deserting republicans have made Trump's chances ever dwindling.
Could he save it? Probably yes. How will he do it? No clue. I know how he could, but he's definitely not doing it now and would be out of character for him to do so. He does have to do something, however.
Clinton is not off the hook. Wikileaks keeps dumping emails and other stolen data meant to damage her. So, far it has not been able to get past the Trump noise. If the Trump story ever gets boring, those reveals will start to become the major news. Trump chances would then increase, and I start drinking again.
Right now the Wikileaks reveals are mostly being talked about on conservative media.
Do not get complacent. Trump is a meteor heading towards the Earth. Right now it has about a 20% chance to hit.
The Republican Civil War
The Republican Civil War (and I'm not the only calling it this) has quieted but is still moving forward.
Paul Ryan got push back from some conservatives keeping him from taking further action. From looking at the conservative complaints, they were not in defense of Trump, but objecting to the very idea of abandoning any nominee and concern about the Trumpys in their district.
Trump performance on the 2nd Debate has rallied his Trumpys enough to use them as a threat against the Republican Party. Trump has also let out some frustration in his patented tweet tantrums, but nothing has been outrageous enough to generate news in themselves
Paul Ryan (now the face the anti-Trump faction) cannot move from his position, but if another Trump bomb erupts that changes. In other words, Trump cannot do better than he is doing now.
Who to watch is Pence. Pence is Trumps last tie to the party, and I can't believe he's betting on a Trump win. More likely he trying to decide if showing disloyalty or standing with Trump is worse for his career.
Winter Is Coming
Here is what is potentially the most long lasting as scary story developing. Most would save Trump could increase his chances of becoming president by showing contrition. reconciling with the Republican Party, and refocus his campaign on getting mov\re voters. Instead, he focused entirely on rallying and exciting his Trumpys.
In Trump is Not Hitler Yet, I said what kept him from becoming Hitler was the lack of Trumpy fanaticism. However, right now Trump is doing what would be required to change that. Worse, his movement is becoming self-sustaining, so this does not end after Nov 8th.
Who to watch is Kellyanne Conway. She is his campaign manager, and probably best person working for him. If she leaves it means the Trump campaign is no longer about getting elected president. It's about forming a TV network or third party.
Trump is not a true conservative. Do I need the argue that? He has constantly flipped on issues with no clear allegiance to the conservatism or the Constitution. But, many are are willing to look past that because, he has agreed to appoint a conservative judge to the Supreme Court. If that is the main or only reason you are voting for Trump, find another.
What seems to be forgotten is that nominees for the Supreme Court can be filibustered. And the chance that Trump will have a supermajority is infinitesimal, Of the 34 senators up for re-election, 24 are republican. The odds are currently about 50% that republicans can keep a majority. The odds that republican keep their current number is only 5%. Forget the chances that there will be 60.
So, even if the Senate is held, the next Supreme Court Justice will need 6 to 10 democrats to agree. If the democrats even allow Trump to appoint a justice, he will not be a Scalia. He will not be on the list Trump holds out as a bribe for conservative votes. The next justice will be a moderate.
The good news for conservatives (or bad news for liberals) is that for Clinton, it will be no difference.
But what if the Senate Majority Leader ends the filibuster, at least for SCOTUS nominees. That is also extremely unlikely. To begin with, it would be foolishness for if a democratic Majority Leader, most likely, Chuck Schumer. In 2018, the democrats are unlikely to hold on to the Senate, for the same reason it's so difficult for republicans this election. Democrats will want the filibuster then.
If Senator McConnell is the Senate Majority leader he could end the filibuster, knowing he is likely to hold the Senate for at least 4 years. But that would be out of character for him. First, Senator McConnell has made every indication that he cherishes the traditions of the Senate, including the filibuster. And besides, his past actions show, he'll want to keep it BECAUSE the President is republican. Senator McConnell has relied on avoiding controversial bills by pointing to the Presidential Veto. He does not have to ask Senators to make those votes because they'll just be vetoed. With a Republican President he'll need the filibuster to keep that same excuse. If you doubt me looked at what happened the only Obama's veto was overridden.
If you are taking a devils bargain for the Supreme Court you want, here is what your real bargain is. You get a president who's proudly lived a life of decadence, shown no allegiance to conservatism, constantly makes proposals that would end the Reagan Revolution, brags about breaking promises, and lacks moral courage.
Today is a big day, and for more reasons than you think. The catch, we won't know fully until tomorrow.
Happy Registration Day
For most states Oct 10th is the last day for voter registration, and that means a lot this election. The Trump campaign constantly states it will will be drawing in new voters. Well to vote you have to be registered. So, tomorrow we will know if this is Trump proving how clever he really is or is just another delusion, a la Obama is a secret Muslim. I'm betting on delusion.
And of Course There's the Debate
Perhaps the biggest surprise is that this is not the biggest news. The release of the video, preempted this and the fallout means a lot more. The debate is just a chapter in that story. But let's see how it went.
In truth, if a candidate does not win a debate decisively, it's really a tie (at least for that night). The early conscensus is that Clinton won marginally, so it's really a tie. Now begins the post debate battle. In that contact, here are the relevant points.
Trump did not sufficiently apologize (you will soon see why this is most signifiicant)
Trump succeeded in making his Trumpys very happy (more soon to see significance)
Clinton did not decisively end Trump's arsenal of arguments (Bill's past indescresions, the email server, and Wikileaks reveals).
Trump did not go bat crap crazy
What's Clinton Going to Do?
That Clinton still has some pending arguments is the least of these stories. In fact, I doubt you will hear anything about them, except for constant banter on Conservative media. But, they're not going away. In this debate, Clinton ignored them, but I doubt she will be able to in the future.
Also, she was not able to push the "Trump is temperamentally unfit" argument. Though, Trump has not escaped that and the week is young.
However, depending on how the Republican and Trump deals with what is next, none of it may matter.
Of Course You Know, This Means War
Since the housing collapse at the end for George W. Bush's presidency, the Republican Party has been on the verge of civil war. You would think this was the rise of the Tea Party, but once Trump was nominated, that clearly was just a preamble. As I detailed The Final Stretch the video tapes have introduced a schism. And here's the really big news.
Before the debate, Trump supporters rallied outside his hotel, so now Trump has good evidence that his core supporters, Trumpys, are still with him.
Paul Ryan had a conference call with rest of the party, deciding what to do next.
Now we see what was the real out come of last nights debate.
Trumps apology lacked any contrition, and the Republican Party knows, the damage of video will continue (and whatever else might be still to come). Winning the debate did not matter, The apology mattered. There is no cover for republican deserters to return, and the reason for further desertions are still there.
Trump believes he won the debate, and he is receiving lots of validation from his Trumpys. Trump now thinks he has leverage.
Trump has already threatened to punish republican deserters.
When one side wrongly believes they can win, war is certain.
On Sep 23rd Cruz endorses Trump. Oct 7th, he wished could take it back.
I've been saying for a while now, that more voters are expected to pay attention after Labor Day. Does that mean what I posted in Just Who is Voting for Who changed? Could be. Let's take a look.
Clinton
Low and Natural 2-way Sep 17th 44%
4-way 40%
High 2-way Oct 4th 48%
4-way 44%
As you can Clinton reached the same High Point and here Low Point was her Natural Point. So far, Clinton has not had any true negative press (at least at a time not overshadowed by Trump's) She probably has not hit a low yet. The evidence right now is that her coalition has not changed.
Trump
Low 2-way Oct 7th 43%
4-way 41%
Natural 2-way Sep 17th 44%
4-way 40%
High 2-way Oct 2nd 45%
4-way 41%
His High Point is also not out of line with before. As for his Low Point, you can see the effect the 1st Debate and following week. If you read my post about it (or just breathed air), you know what I mean.
But, given just how bad he was, the Low Point is not that low, 41% 4-way, versus the 35% before. This suggests that either he is still holding on to about half of his Hopeys or more voters for him entered the electorate after Labor Day. The latter is unlikely because Clinton is still holding on to her percentage of the electorate.
And of course, these polls do not include what effect the video of Trump's lewd comment's has done, but well get into this later.
Poor Johnny
Hey, did you know other parties beside Republican and Democrat? Well there are, and they're getting between 8% to 12% of the vote. So, if that starts to change, it could change the race. That change may be going on now.
First, there's a normal shift away from Third Party voting as the election gets closer. When that pollsters call six months before the election, it's easy to say I want Gary Johnson. But as it get closer you begin to realize that voting for Gary Johnson really means indirectly voting for Trump or Clinton.
But the second, problem is that we've had a chance to see Gary Johnson. (Oh yeah, Gary Johnson that's the "What's Aleppo?" guy). On Sep 28th. the night before the 1st Debate, he did a forum on Chris Matthew, and did not come off well. Some might say even "Sara Palinish".
If you saw this, your belief that Johnson was an alternative to Trump or Clinton just got tested. As for Jill Stein, she had throughout the election only been marginal and made equally disqualifying performances. Before, I had given 8% for the No-Way-No-Hows, the group that includes Third Party voters. Has that changed?
If you look at the yellow and green lines, there is a slow downfall in both lines, but not really a change after the Sep 28th, when Johnson made such a poor performance. So, far the No-Way-No-Hows are staying. It's hard to see in the chart, however, but Johnson did make a sudden dip to 6.5% these past couple of days. Like most of what's happening now, we just have to keep watching.
If their is a change in the No-Way- No-Hows, it should not go lower than 5%. Since May, the total of Johnson and Stein vote in a single poll, never went bellow that number. Just as important their all time high is about 12%. Here are the numbers.
If you've been paying attention (OK start paying attention now), Clinton was always the favorite. Trump is clearly trapped in the Great Delusion of Politics and Clinton is not. And, the polls are showing this. On his best days he's only tied, and only once pulled marginally ahead. In fact, their “natural” points, 45 vs 44, makes Clinton the natural favorite.
However, there’s a big difference between winning and having won.This is why no one has been talking about her as the favorite. Trumpys can't believe it. Hopeys are still hoping. Borings don't want to become complacent. And Excitables want to insist they still have options.
At 45 vs 44, (their Natural Points), Trump has about a 45% chance of being President. Even, when Clinton is +3% ahead, he has a about a 40% chance. Personally, I need his chances to go down to 30% before I can stop drinking and 20% before I can go off my meds.
The Demographic Appeal
At some point I should have mapped how political shows describe voters to the current mindsets. Well, I tried. I just could not find a poll aggregator that subdivided the answers demographically. Furthermore, most analysis cannot work from polls in this election. Instead, they use how votes were divided last election. I find this questionable because Clinton is not Obama and Trump is not Romney.
But, I've held off as long as I can. I'll just have to fudge it. This late in the game I don't need to go into all the categories, so let's just focus on the highlights.
Young Voters and Jebs (Clinton's Excitables)
Most young voters (18 to 30) are voting for Clinton, but their not excited about it. They actually want a candidate to offer something other than "I'm not Trump". (Yeah, how dare they.) However, there are also the Jebs out. They could vote for her, if she showed some willingness to take on Republican causes. She has the classic political dilemma. She can't make young voters and Jebs happy. From her past statements, she chose the young voters.
Whites and Non-Whites
Needless to say, Trump he has done a lot this year to alienate non-whites. But, just as important, educated whites are turned off by his behavior, especially women. (Hopeys and Wait-n-Sees) His dilemma is that Trumpys like the fact that he is "politically incorrect", so he can only walk back his comments so far. He's made outreach, which did more to calm Hopeys and Wait-n-Sees, but Clinton countered by pointing out his association to the Alt-Right.
Women
Democrats usually win the women vote, but they don't always win the educated white women vote. This is a significant chunk of Trumps Hopeys and the Wait-n-Sees. The fact that Trump might not win enough women voters has been a concern of Hopeys from the beginning.
Back to Trump
Trump's had a bad week. He failed to show temperament in the debate and compounded the mistake throughout the week. But, he's still holding at 43%. Shouldn't he be lower? What's going on?
Maybe there's not enough time
Trump did start at a high for him, 45%, and last time it took about 12 days to reach his bottom. It's only been 7.
He pulled some third party vote
Johnson's all time high is was around 9%. His last polling average was 6.5%. Trump could have pulled 3% from there, (I doubt any went from Stein to Trump)
We got used to him
This is the most disturbing possibility and was from the beginning. With each of Trump's downfalls, his bottom was slightly higher.
His 43% could be his new percentage of Trumpys. Well, at least before there was a video tape.
Trump's Potty Mouth
I'm sure I don't need to describe the video. I don't want to describe it. Go look it up for yourself. I'll just add that what he said was indefensible. Like I needed a reason to dislike Trump. Instead, I'll talk about why others have changed their mind.
Now imagine you're a Hopey. Trump does not seem to respect your beliefs or party. He behaves in ways that make you ashamed. However, you don't want Clinton to win, and just as important you want to keep the Senate and Supreme Court. Trump might not be what you want, but Clinton, you know you don't. The implication here is that you have to believe Trump can win.
Let's add that you know at least what we know. Clinton has always been the favorite, and Trump can't win until he convinces non-Trumpys he has the right temperament and appeals to more voters, especially women. Then, you see Trump have questionable temperament in front of 90 million viewers, and he compounds it with unnecessary juvenile antics throughout the week.
It's too late to change. Election Day is only a month away. This is who you need to win, so you hold on to hope that Trump can do better in the 2nd Debate. Then a video tape comes out that you know enrages most women in America.
I just described what every republican politician is feeling this weekend.
What makes this weekend different from previous Trump scandals is the way republican professionals are reacting. We can't know the impact on voters for a week, and the professionals don't have that kind of time. When they begun denouncing Trump and calling for him to step down, there was no turning back. The support Trump lost this weekend is lost for good.
On to the 2nd Debate
Tonight we could see the end of the Trump campaign. He might continue on to Election Day, but we all will know tonight as the night he lost. And then again, he might also save it.
But before we get to that, we need to talk about the latest Clinton "scandal", Fortunately, for her everyone is focused on Trump, but Wikileaks revealed more Clinton secrets. The biggest threat to her is that it might anger younger voters (Excitables). There's a lot, but most of it's mild, so I won't try to go through it here. Let's see how the debate goes.
I just want you to know that if you see Clinton making some appeals to young voters, this is why. And, just as likely she may bring up Russia preemptively. The Wikileaks info came from Russian hackers, and by pointing out Trump's bromance with Putin, she brings Wikileaks veracity into question. I also expect her to make constant appeals to women voters, of course.
And then there's Trump. We know that's what the night will be about. The political shows are going into painful detail as to what he needs to do, and how they don't expect him to do it. For me, I'm watching to see how he treats the audience. I seriously am wondering if he will yell at someone.
To Sum Up
I went over a lot here, and I may not have tied it together well so, let me attempt fix that.
We are still waiting to see how low Trump can go. Will he go all the way to 35% or did he increase his Trumpys? Given that he is now in a war with the Republican Party, this could become the only vote he gets.
Are No-Way-No-Hows about to shift to either candidate?
Clinton still has to worry about keeping her Excitables motivated, and the recent Wikileaks reveal could hurt this.
