6th Reason No One Should Vote for Trump, and Counting....

Yes, We are Finally Talking About the Birther Nonsense

To add to our list of 5 Reasons No One Should Vote for Trump.

6^th Reason: He is a Bad Investor

Trump claims to be a great business man, but in the sense of being a good investor, his dalliance with birther nonsense disproves that.

Here’s what I mean. Let’s forget the racist implications for now (not that it’s not there) and focus on this as a business investment. Say I offered you $10,000, but if President Obama produces his birth certificate you have to give me a $100,000. That’s exactly how a good investor would look at this.

Now only a bad investor would ever take that deal. Odds are you would lose. When Trump publicly demanded President Obama’s birth certificate, he risked time, money, his reputation, and, yes, even his business. If the President ever does show his birth certificate, Trump is humiliated, looks like a buffoon, and would be suspected as having a questionable grasp on reality. The best outcome is Trump is proven as a crass opportunist and potential con man. The worst is that he is so discredited no one wants to ever listen or invest in him again. Whatever 15 minutes of publicity he would get could not be worth that risk.

I mean what was his backup plan? Demand to see his college transcripts? (Oh, wait.)

The only way you would see that as a good investment is if you honestly believed President Obama could not produce his birth certificate. I will not waste time explaining why that is really, really, and I mean really stupid. If you object to that, leave a comment and I will, very slowly, explain why.

Now if you doubt that analysis, then note that’s what actually happened.

One phenomenally stupid investment could be an aberration, but you see the same problem in other statements and proposals. For example, here’s what happens if we look at “taking Iraq’s oil” as an investment”.

Benefit: We gain resources and keep them from terrorist.

Cost and Risk:

• We definitely would have to commit troops indefinitely. 
• Our troops will be in harms ways and subject to terrorist attack 
• Terrorist will be confirmed in their argument “that it was always about oil’ and emboldened. 
• It will spur international criticism 
• Alliances would be endangered, especially those in the Middle East. 
• Countries with oil or reliant on middle eastern oil would be agitated. This means more attempts to gain nuclear weapons and makes other wars more likely

You can see, a bad investment.

So, now I encourage you to start looking at other proposals Trump makes as investments, and I bet you will start seeing the same disturbing trend.

Unfortunately, I have not been able to examine his business practices to better confirmed this trend. The problem is, besides my lack of skill, I need more details, than you can normally get, to assess what the risks were against the potential benefits. The other problem was he made so many other glaring mistake, I could not untangle them from his inability to assess risk. (Like starting an over-priced airline when the clear trend was that people wanted cheaper flights).

However, Warren Buffet does agree with me. During a Notre Dame lecture in 1991, Buffet described Trump’s real-estate failures as just paying more than the properties were worth. ^[1]

Now I know you are asking, how could he be a bad investor and such a good business man. Well, first I’m not convinced he is a good business man, but that’s another post. Second, there are other ways to make money and other reasons to start a business. But, there is another concerning way you can be a bad investor and still get rich. Only invest with other peoples money.

If you can get bank loans and others investors without using your own money, you can put yourself in the good old “heads I win, tails you lose” position. Doing this you can be a bad investor if you are a good enough salesman, and Trump is clearly a good salesman.

For example, you might get banks to loan you tons of money to open casinos, but make sure you can use bankruptcy laws to protect your own money. You might even brag about it. Ever hear of that happening?

This should really make you squirm, because in the scenario of Trump becoming president, we are the banks.