State of the Election 2016
Today I'm going to try something different. Instead, of post semi-weekly deep topics (which so far have been how bad Trump is), I'm going to also post how the election is going, based on my morning update ritual (which I will describe later). Hopefully, I can keep this up every weekday until the election.Trump in the News?
No surprise, The news is focused on Trump's answers to in last night forum. Trump made three statement that I expected would be the focus. None I believe have a big impact on the race.
Are generals are bad, and he might fire them once President
The reason this is controversial is that in traditional politics, especially Republican, this is heresy. The president should be taking the advice of our generals, not criticizing them. However, given that many are dissatisfied with our policies, this might be the time for heresy.
You might also think this will anger our military service and veterans, But, most suffer the consequence of bad generals, so our troops are not always going to defend them.
What this does change is that every general now knows that Clinton has to be elected for them to keep their jobs. You can expect them to use what influence they can. Though right now, that is not much. From now, on the only generals supporting Trump should be those already in disfavor or willing to "jump ship".
We should have taken Iraq's oil
This was by far the most troubling statement, and if you are not already troubled by him, you should be now. This is crazy stupid. I mean wacko Ben Carson stupid. (Yeah I said it.) First, we can't "take" oil. Oil is under the ground. We would have to capture oil, which means American troops perpetually in Iraq and under constant attack. Not to mention the moral and diplomatic impact it would have.
However, why this is so stupid is not directly obvious. (Though it did just take me a paragraph). If you are already susceptible to jingoistic rhetoric, you won't see the problem.
This was by far the most troubling statement, and if you are not already troubled by him, you should be now. This is crazy stupid. I mean wacko Ben Carson stupid. (Yeah I said it.) First, we can't "take" oil. Oil is under the ground. We would have to capture oil, which means American troops perpetually in Iraq and under constant attack. Not to mention the moral and diplomatic impact it would have.
However, why this is so stupid is not directly obvious. (Though it did just take me a paragraph). If you are already susceptible to jingoistic rhetoric, you won't see the problem.
Putin is not so bad
Trump once again defended his admiration of Putin. This will probably have the least effect and may have already faded away. First, it only reinforces an existing criticism without advancing it. Second, Putin is in some ways an adversary and an ally, so this is not hard to defend. The more troubling aspects is the psychological implications which only appeal to those already against him. I suspect you will only hear about this in left-leaning media.
Trump once again defended his admiration of Putin. This will probably have the least effect and may have already faded away. First, it only reinforces an existing criticism without advancing it. Second, Putin is in some ways an adversary and an ally, so this is not hard to defend. The more troubling aspects is the psychological implications which only appeal to those already against him. I suspect you will only hear about this in left-leaning media.
Clinton in the News
For Clinton, there is not as much noise. Most will be probably focused on her bad answer to the email scandal. But, we would probably talk about that anyway. There was only one answer that stood out.
No ground troops in Syria or Iraq
This could have the most substantive and long lasting impact. Clinton stated unequivocally that she will not put ground troops in Syria or Iraq. Now this statement is going to get parsed by all sides, but I took it to mean "we will not use ground troops to hold territory."
This was not said in a way that could appeal to the Military, but more likely was to ease her more left supporters. I suspect this is also a set up to later drive Trump to say he will put ground troops in Iraq, but more likely the former.
No ground troops in Syria or Iraq
This could have the most substantive and long lasting impact. Clinton stated unequivocally that she will not put ground troops in Syria or Iraq. Now this statement is going to get parsed by all sides, but I took it to mean "we will not use ground troops to hold territory."
This was not said in a way that could appeal to the Military, but more likely was to ease her more left supporters. I suspect this is also a set up to later drive Trump to say he will put ground troops in Iraq, but more likely the former.
Trump vs Clinton
Both did bad in the forum. They just don't know how to talk to those that serve in our military. What we may have seen is a preview to how they will debate in future, in particular Trump. I still can't cognate what my intuition is telling me on this, so I will have to go at that later.
The polls and projections are predictably moving closer. Before those afraid of a Trump presidency like me, that is in line with political fundamentals. What I am looking to see is if they level off to what I currently guess (please note I said 'guess') to be a +2% Clinton lead in the national polls and 60/40 odds for Clinton vs Trump in the projections. If there is no level off in the next two to three weeks, I would be concerned.
Oh and one more thing. If you have taped the forum and an hour to waste, please watch Trump's section without the sound. I swear I say him in panic answering at least two questions. Look for his eyes widening, slight loss of color in his skin, and speaking faster. And I think I saw a tell. He glances to the left when he feels in trouble.
The polls and projections are predictably moving closer. Before those afraid of a Trump presidency like me, that is in line with political fundamentals. What I am looking to see is if they level off to what I currently guess (please note I said 'guess') to be a +2% Clinton lead in the national polls and 60/40 odds for Clinton vs Trump in the projections. If there is no level off in the next two to three weeks, I would be concerned.
Oh and one more thing. If you have taped the forum and an hour to waste, please watch Trump's section without the sound. I swear I say him in panic answering at least two questions. Look for his eyes widening, slight loss of color in his skin, and speaking faster. And I think I saw a tell. He glances to the left when he feels in trouble.
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