Election 2016 Update 09-27

State of the Election 2016

Now I'd like to take the opportunity discuss the International Monetary Fund.

Naw, I'm going to talk about the debate of course.

Before I go into the candidates, How did I do? Looking at 1st Ttrump vs Clinton Debate, the truth is not very well. They only asked 2 of the 3 questions I listed, and while the email server was brought up, the foundations were not. In the 2 questions they did bring up, both candidates acted more retrained, so did not go as far as I expected. I also missed a lot of topics, I shouldn't have.

More importantly, I was way off on the drinking game. If you listened to me, you have a lot of liquor left over.

So, how did the candidates do.

Trump

1. Not lose his temper -> Not good
2. Not bully Clinton too much -> Not good
3. Keep moderate republicans comfortable with him -> Not good
4. Appeal more to woman -> Not good

Clinton

1. Not come off as cold or condescending -> Pretty good
2. Answer questions about emails (drink) quickly -> Great
3. Get Trump to lose his temper -> Pretty good
4. Motivate African Americans, Hispanic, and younger voters -> OK
5. Keep moderate republicans and woman uncomfortable with Trump -> OK

So, Clinton did well, and Trump did not. I won't say it was a complete game changer, but Trump fell well short of his "There you go again moment."

Before, we go into our happy dance, there's a strange way how voters see these debates differently, partly on how well the campaign spin happens afterwards. Before, I would dare predict the outcome, we need these questions answered.

Did everyone see this in split screen?

This is a big deal. Most of Trump's "lack of temperament" occurred while Clinton was speaking, so those without a split screen would see Trump better.

Who saw the whole debate?

Trump's debate weakened about 40 minutes in, so if most only watch the first 30 minutes, they saw Trump at his strongest. Even at that time, he looked to me as if he was slowly losing his temper, but that's me.

What's with the sniffling?

Trump made audible sniffling which I suspect was a tick of his trying to contain his temper. (I do something similar). Regardless, it was distracting and made him look agitated. Sure, to be in the next SNL skit.

The Bottom Line

This was good night for Clinton, and could be bad for Trump. The question is how bad. I don't see Trump gaining in the polls and he may go down. More likely, he stays where he is and continues to stay. (Before tonight he was moving to a tie. Now Clinton stays ahead).

This is where the previous questions come in. A viewer that did not see a split screen (or listened on the radio), stopped watching halfway through, and has any leaning for Trump could convince themselves he won.

As for the sniffling, be sure to watch SNL this week.