State of the Election 2016
Terrorist Attacks Over the Weekend
As you have probably heard, there were 2 bombs and one knife attack this weekend that are suspected to be acts of terrorism.
My sincere belief is that we should hold off speculation on such matters until there is enough time to digest the facts. So, that's what I'll do.
Let me just say my gratitude that no one was killed and my empathy to those who were harmed and traumatized.
So How Do Terrorist Attacks Affect the Campaign?
In order to keep distance from current events, I will refer back to the Brussels Bombings on March 22.
The conventional wisdom is that terrorist events will help Trump. This is the issue Trump is running on, which usually means when it enters the news, it should help him. But not necessarily. An issue in the abstract has different politics than when it is actually occurring. In other words, Trump has to show he knows something.
If you look at the polling average around that time:
You see that this is the the largest point Clinton as so far gotten, 50.4, and the 2nd lowest of Trump's, 39. This is also the time he said "I have a very good brain" and that Obama "knew something". In other words, he reacted badly making him look less able to handle a crisis. So, the question is how discipline Trump is.
For, Clinton, this is where her recent pneumonia could hurt her. Her acting calm and thoughtful could be interpreted as her drained by the stress.
Do not be confused by standard troupes. "Clinton refused to call it Islamic terrorism". "Trump was too quick to assume it was terrorism" (unless it actually wasn't). These are arguments that only those who have already made up the mind respond to.
The real determination will be if Trump acts to erratic or Clinton acts too political. Otherwise, there could be no effect at all.
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