How to get Voters, the Gadfly Way

Using What We Know About Voters to Build a Coalition

Now that we've figured out the mindset of voters in The Good, the Bad and and Delusional, we can talk about how politicians win elections. (You didn't read it. Will go read it now. I'll wait).

You still didn't read OK fine. Here's a quick summary.

• Delusionals. Those who support the candidate no matter what
• Partisans. Those that support the candidate's party no matter what
• Pragmatist. Those supporting a candidate because he shares their goal.
• Idealist. Those supporting a candidate because he shares their ideals.

If you get confused now, then go back a read the darn link.

The Coalition Begins

What this all means is that for a president to win, he has to get more than just "natural followers" to vote for him. That translates to a run-of-the-mill calculus. Different people have different needs (both physical and psychological), and the candidate wins by aligning what he offers with those different needs. We call this his coalition. (You can also reverse this by disrupting and demotivating your opponents coalition, but we'll get into that later.)

Mindset tend to form before the election or during the primary. Otherwise, if they do change during an election, it will happen at pivotal moments. There are exceptions, but it's usually happens like this.

• Party and Anti-Candidate Delusionals formed before the election started.
• Pro-Candidates Delusionals form during the primaries, or on first impressions (conventions, debates, etc.) if they weren't following the primaries.
• Partisans form before the election but can change to Partisan-Pragmatics during primaries, and in extreme cases after.
• Partisan-Pragmatists mostly come before the election and during the primaries, but some wait until after. They also come and go throughout the election.
• True Pragmatics form before the election and usually stay that way. But of course, their vote can change throughout.
• Most Idealist were formed before the election, but the origin of their idealism often began during a previous election. They almost never change during an election, but their vote do come and go.

After the primaries, a candidate start with a fixed number of Delusionals and Partisans, about 40% of the electorate. They both come from the same pool of voters, so the candidates biggest effect is what percentage are Delusionals. Of course candidate want as many Delusonals, they can get. Despite, their problems, their reliability and energy make them more than worth it, especially if you can control them.

Fortunately, you can also get some ready made Delusionals from your party. Rush Limbaugh works hard recruiting Delusionals for republican nominees. (Democrats have recruiters too. They're just haven't been as good since the 60s).

You get your Partisans from your party. That's why, if you want to be President, you have to do it as a democrat or republican. You also got some Partisan-Pragmatists this way, and this account for most of the fluxuation around the 40%.

But, 40% won't get you the presidency. Now you have to get some of those Idealists and remaining Pragmatist, and keep the Partisan-Pragmatists and Idealist you already got.

You actually got most of your Idealists along with your Partisans, but don't think of them that way. Unlike Partisans, you can lose them in a heartbeat. Fortunately, you can get the back just as quick. You just have to promise what they want. The problem is that what they want often no one else does (or at least not as much)

Pragmatists can also come and go, and True Pragmatist are the only group you can pull from your other candidate. The good news is that Pragmatists are reasonable and willing to compromise, so, if you're smart, you can keep them happy without alienating everyone else.

Once you have your coalition, you have to keep them happy. Except for True Pragmatists, they won't vote for the other candidate, but they will stay home, vote for a third party, and not help you with other voters.

Keeping Your Coalition Well Fed

While only True Pragmatists switch votes, much of your coalition will stay home if you don't keep them happy. So, the candidate does need to keep working at that. As I already mentions, The Great Delusion of Politics makes the different parts of a coalition think they don't need the each other, so the candidate can't always rely on them to help. So, let's talk about how the mindsets interact.

Delusionals, Partisans, and Partisan-Pragmatist usually get along with each other. After all their on the same side. When they don't, Partisans often become the mediator. It should not surprise to you that most politicians, especially presidential candidates, are Partisans.

Since Partisan-Pragmatist are willing to compromise, they usually aren't much trouble, but their problem is that they don't always agree with each other. A candidate can find himself compromising with one group of Partisan-Pragmatists only to lose another group. If ignored, Partisan-Pragmatists are also smart enough to let and election slip to make the Partisans pay attention.

Delusionals can bigger problem. If the Delusional is Pro-Candidate, instead of Party or Anti-Candidate, they can push issues that the others don't want. But worst, Delusionals can say crazy things that Partisans and Partisan-Pragmatists know will hurt their chances, not only in the current election but future ones. There is a jiu-jitsu, here, that the other candidate can use. They can push Delusionals into showing their craziness and damage their coalition. If the rest of the coalition had their way, they'd ship all the Delusionals to a deserted island and bring them back on election day.

Idealists are a mixed blessing. They can shrink the coalition, pushing unpopular ideas or, worst, insisting on party purity. But, they're not all bad. They are great replacement for Delusionals, giving the same energy with less of, the craziness. The other candidate can use a similar jiu-jitsu as they do with Delusionals, bringing up issues that make Idealist take unpopular stances, they can force a coalition to make difficult choices. This is so common there's a name for it, "wedge issues".

True Pragmatist, as you can imagine, can work well with everyone or stay to themselves. However, too much conflict either within a coalition or between them can drive True Pragmatists away.

As, you may have noticed, most coalition forming happened before the election began or during the primaries. That too is an involved topic which demands another post. It's also one better to go into after the election.

What About the Issues

I'm sure you've noticed (and are probably mad about it). I have not talked at all about the issues. (In truth, I've barely talked about them throughout the election).

So, do I think they matter. Of course they matter. That's exactly what Pragmatists and Idealist are thinking about. Issues are the language that mindsets hear. I'm just trying to describe voters from a "more eagle eye view". By focusing on the mindset, we see what it takes to change voters minds on the issues and the candidates.

This is also why issues don't come up as much during elections, and probably always will be. Here's a lesson for you activist. If you want elections to be more issue driven, focus on how mindset formed before the election. If the election starts with more Pragmatists and Idealists than Partisans and Delusionals, it will be the issues we talk about.

The Winning Strategy

So, now candidates have to do a mixture of 5 strategies to win:

1. keep their coalition happy
2. remind your coalition the other candidate will make them unhappy,
3. make the other candidate's coalition unhappy
4. win over True Pragmatists.
5. make the other candidate unacceptable to True Pragmatists.

Whenever you hear a politician talk about an issues, you have decide which of the 4 strategies he's using and which of the 4 mindsets, he's talking to.

In another post, I'll go into how this works out in the 2016 elections.