State of the Election 2016
Charlotte, NC and Tulsa, OK
Thankfully, while the protests in Charlotte where large, they were largely peaceful. Hopefully, the calming will continue, and I will use it as permission to go a little into the politics. Since Charlotte and Tulsa are politically the same issue, I will treat them as one.
First, the news is becoming "silo'd", meaning in some news source you only hear about this, while in others, there is almost no mention. In politics, this is significant because it means different audiences, in other words voters, are being affected by the new.
Considering that the news is now silo'd and fading, the political impact would be waning. However, it turns out that NC is a critical state. In most projected scenarios, Trump must win NC, and while he is currently ahead, it is only slightly. If Clinton can take this away, it's game over for Trump.
NC also has a large black population.
On top of that Trump's reflexive response had been to suggest profiling, stop and frisk, and suggesting drug use is the problem. All of these can be viewed as what would exasperate the situation by many (including myself).
Now 'many' is not 'all', but I think I'm safe in assuming that if you are black, you are likely part of the 'many'.
Considering this is an election year, Clinton has only made the minimal response. Partly this is due to the events themselves drowning out any attention, and what is left is taken by Trump. But it is also partly due to Clinton being more focused on the upcoming debate, than "in the moment" political maneuvering. I don't think, however, it is not a question of whether but when she confronts Trump on this, probably during the debate or at least later.
First, the news is becoming "silo'd", meaning in some news source you only hear about this, while in others, there is almost no mention. In politics, this is significant because it means different audiences, in other words voters, are being affected by the new.
Considering that the news is now silo'd and fading, the political impact would be waning. However, it turns out that NC is a critical state. In most projected scenarios, Trump must win NC, and while he is currently ahead, it is only slightly. If Clinton can take this away, it's game over for Trump.
NC also has a large black population.
On top of that Trump's reflexive response had been to suggest profiling, stop and frisk, and suggesting drug use is the problem. All of these can be viewed as what would exasperate the situation by many (including myself).
Now 'many' is not 'all', but I think I'm safe in assuming that if you are black, you are likely part of the 'many'.
Considering this is an election year, Clinton has only made the minimal response. Partly this is due to the events themselves drowning out any attention, and what is left is taken by Trump. But it is also partly due to Clinton being more focused on the upcoming debate, than "in the moment" political maneuvering. I don't think, however, it is not a question of whether but when she confronts Trump on this, probably during the debate or at least later.
NY/NJ Bombings
This news is being pushed out, and I suspect has "cycled out". So, I will take to opportunity to talk about terrorism and the election. I already pointed out that the assumption that terrorist events helps Trump is not necessarily true. In the Brussels Bombing he had actually hurt himself. Here was the effect of the Orlando nightclub shooting on June 12th. Again, lets look at Real Clear Politics.
What you should see is that Trump AND Clinton where helped. More significantly, this is the only time both Trump and Clinton went up in the polls at the same time.
If you think about this, it makes sense. At this time Trump supporters are likely to seek strength, while Clinton supporters would seek calm and steadiness. What was different from before is that Trump did not erratically respond, but instead, focused on stopping immigration as the solution. Note that after the NY/NJ Bombings, he made the same response.
No comments :
Post a Comment