Election 2016 Update 09-28

State of the Election 2016

Post Debate

You should never assume the winner of a debate, until a week after the debate. Winning is not appearing to be the winner, its how it helped or hurt you politically. And, after a debate politicians do know how to turn a week into a lose.

If you doubt that, note that we are still talking about who won 2 days afterwards. Trump is trying to spin a win, and Clinton is trying to capitalize on the win. That this is how the candidates are responding means even Trump's own supporters realize he lost. But, if he is successful in his spin, he can keep the polls from shifting too much. That's why I'm being conservative on how much the polls will change.

There is a trap for him, however. (Fingers crossed). The longer Trump talks the more he can lose. If he is still defending his debate performance next week, he's making it worse. Normally, I would not even consider a candidate doing this, but it is Trump.

Alicia Machado

So, Clinton points out horrible comments made by Trump about a Miss Universe winner, Alicia Machado, about 10 years ago. I haven't heard of her. Almost, no ones heard of her. Trump barely remembers her. No big deal right.

Then Trump next morning calls her fat. This is the kind of reaction that has most hurt him in the past, when he goes after a non-politician. Think Judge Curiel and the Khan family. If he goes any further, he could end his chances before the 2nd debate. (Shh, don't tell him.)

What I find most encouraging is that Machado is responding on Spanish television. Lately, Hispanic support needs to be shored up for Clinton, and this could do it. (Why they need more reason to run to the polls and vote against Trump, I can't figure out).

Election 2016 Update 09-27

State of the Election 2016

Now I'd like to take the opportunity discuss the International Monetary Fund.

Naw, I'm going to talk about the debate of course.

Before I go into the candidates, How did I do? Looking at 1st Ttrump vs Clinton Debate, the truth is not very well. They only asked 2 of the 3 questions I listed, and while the email server was brought up, the foundations were not. In the 2 questions they did bring up, both candidates acted more retrained, so did not go as far as I expected. I also missed a lot of topics, I shouldn't have.

More importantly, I was way off on the drinking game. If you listened to me, you have a lot of liquor left over.

So, how did the candidates do.

Trump

1. Not lose his temper -> Not good
2. Not bully Clinton too much -> Not good
3. Keep moderate republicans comfortable with him -> Not good
4. Appeal more to woman -> Not good

Clinton

1. Not come off as cold or condescending -> Pretty good
2. Answer questions about emails (drink) quickly -> Great
3. Get Trump to lose his temper -> Pretty good
4. Motivate African Americans, Hispanic, and younger voters -> OK
5. Keep moderate republicans and woman uncomfortable with Trump -> OK

So, Clinton did well, and Trump did not. I won't say it was a complete game changer, but Trump fell well short of his "There you go again moment."

Before, we go into our happy dance, there's a strange way how voters see these debates differently, partly on how well the campaign spin happens afterwards. Before, I would dare predict the outcome, we need these questions answered.

Did everyone see this in split screen?

This is a big deal. Most of Trump's "lack of temperament" occurred while Clinton was speaking, so those without a split screen would see Trump better.

Who saw the whole debate?

Trump's debate weakened about 40 minutes in, so if most only watch the first 30 minutes, they saw Trump at his strongest. Even at that time, he looked to me as if he was slowly losing his temper, but that's me.

What's with the sniffling?

Trump made audible sniffling which I suspect was a tick of his trying to contain his temper. (I do something similar). Regardless, it was distracting and made him look agitated. Sure, to be in the next SNL skit.

The Bottom Line

This was good night for Clinton, and could be bad for Trump. The question is how bad. I don't see Trump gaining in the polls and he may go down. More likely, he stays where he is and continues to stay. (Before tonight he was moving to a tie. Now Clinton stays ahead).

This is where the previous questions come in. A viewer that did not see a split screen (or listened on the radio), stopped watching halfway through, and has any leaning for Trump could convince themselves he won.

As for the sniffling, be sure to watch SNL this week.

Election 2016 Update 09-26

State of the Election 2016

We have the debates tonight, and that's all anyone is talking about. So, there's not much more to say. However, I've already prepared a lot for you to read over the weekend if you haven't already.

First, her are some video clips I made to read Trump's body language.

Second, here's my pre-debate analysis.

And finally, what I have new. I started a page of the crazy ideas I keep having for better politics. Here's one on how to do better debates.

And most important, here is an updated list for the drinking game.

1.  I’m the and order president
2. America great, again
3. I finished it
4. Hillary started it
5. racist
6. Alt Right
7. temperamentally unfit
8. bigot
9. deplorable
10. failed policies
11. Crooked Hillary
12. foundation
13. Benghazi
14. America First
15. Stronger Together (new)
16. bigly or big league (new)

See, tomorrow. I'm sure I'll have a lot to write about then.

The 1st Trump vs Clinton Debate

This Time It’s Armageddon

So now, begins the event, we’ve been waiting for all this election, the 1^st debate. I already discussed the scaredy Trump face, so you have some body language to observe, but I have not discussed the debate in general. So, here’s my take.

Do Debates Matter?

There is actually some questions among political scientists as to whether debates affect elections. The short answer is that, usually the polls do not shift much and settle back to where they were before. Effectively debates, produce a bounce like the conventions. A good example of this was the 1^st Romney vs Obama debate. Obama’s poor performance was believed to revitalize Romney’s chances after the 47% discovery. (I refuse to call that a gaff because I believe it was more substantive than that, but that’s another post). In the end, it didn’t. Polls settled back to as before. Now, of course you could point out that the debate undid Romney’s previous decline and note there were 2 more debates. But, you can see why political scientists disagree. However, the fact is that in most past elections the polls eventually went back to where they were.

The debate we know mattered was Reagan vs Carter. We remember Reagan for what most would consider 8 years as successful president. (The average of historians rank him around 16^th which ironically is the same as Obama). However, before that he was a very controversial figure, even by the standards of today. If you haven’t heard it, here was his take back then of medicare,

Carter on the other hand was ending a very unpopular term with economic troubles and the Iranian hostage crisis. You could say any warm body could have beaten him. Bur, Reagan was crazy. I just showed you the clip. And, remember that media was much more limited than today, giving only this debate for Reagan to rebuttal. Carter was able to keep even in the polls and might have been re-elected, but Reagan was able to undo that with one line: “There you go again”.

And then Reagan became president.
This debate is lining up under similar dynamics. We have a strongly unpopular democratic candidate (though not as bad as Carter) and a “crazy” republican candidate (though way more crazy than Reagan). Perhaps Trump can pull off his own “there you go again” moment. However, in this media environment, you’d have to have had your head under a Rush Limbaugh blanket to not have heard Trump’s craziness. Plus, they’ll be two more debates, There was only one between Reagan and Carter.

So, Just How is This Going to Go

In the first debate, I predict Trump and Clinton will have a thoughtful discussion of the issues where Trump shows his knowledge of current events and constantly compliments Clinton. (Yeah, I couldn’t keep a straight face as I wrote it).

So, what can we really expect at the debate? I haven’t a friggin clue. However, I know what is the most important reason to watch in the debate, the drinking game. So, as my contribution, I will designate my suggested words by following it with (drink).
But, here’s what they need to do in this order.

Trump

1. Not lose his temper
   
2. Not bully Clinton too much
   
3. Keep moderate republicans comfortable with him
   
4. Appeal more to woman
   

Clinton

1. Not come off as cold or condescending
   
2. Answer questions about emails (drink) quickly
   
3. Get Trump to lose his temper
   
4. Motivate African Americans, Hispanic, and younger voters
   
5. Keep moderate republicans and woman uncomfortable with Trump
   

The theme of the debate is “America’s Direction”, whatever the heck that means. However, I think it will not matter because instead, the moderator will focus on what he believes are the question the audience is most curious.

What is your response to the events in Charlotte and Tulsa?
Trump: We need more police (profiling, “stop and frisk”, etc.). He may also say “I’m the and order president” (drink) and “We need to make America great, again” (drink). In other words, let’s go back to the 1950s.

Clinton: How bad it is. Police cameras need to be released to the public. Perhaps she will go as far as to criticize NC new laws, and propose some kind of federal standard or oversight. In other words, African Americans please don’t stay home; Trump wants to bring back segregation and Jim Crow laws.

Mr. Trump please explain your recent change on Bitherism?
Trump: “I finished it” (drink). “Hillary started it” (drink). In other words, moderate republicans and women please don’t hate me.

Clinton: He or his supporters are racist (drink) and the alt right (drink). In other words, moderate republicans and woman, you should hate him. If she is smart, she claims this makes him temperamentally unfit (drink). This is also a perfect opportunity for a one liner.

Trump: You’re the bigot (drink) and you call everyone ‘deplorable’ (drink). Your failed policies (drink) shows you don’t care about African Americans. In other words, hate Hilary, not me; she hates you.

Secretary Clinton please explain your private email (drink) server?
Clinton: ?. But please make it short.

Trump: This proves Crooked Hillary (drink) cannot be trusted, and her foundation (drink) is the largest pay-for-play setup in history. In other words, you can’t trust Clinton.

Clinton: What about your foundation (drink), Trump? Never used your own money. Bribed a DA. Used to pay legal fees. And let’s not forget, bought a football and a 6 foot painting of yourself. In other words, maybe you don’t trust me, but you can’t trust him either.

Though the Trump and Clinton Foundations my come up in a separate question.

And then a whole butch of boring stuff about the economy, health care, and maybe some foreign policy (but I believe they’ll save that for later debates). However, we will be all too drunk to care.

So what other drinking words did I forget? How about: "Benghazi" and "America first".

Whatever you choose, please don’t use these for your drinking game. You’ll get alcohol poisoning.

• Believe me.
  
• Give me a break
  
• I’m telling you
  
• You tell me

However, if he once says “I have a very good brain”, let’s all just chug until we’re too drunk to remember the rest of the night.

Scaredy Trump Face

Theses are the Body Language Tells I Observed During the Commander-In-Chief Forum

As mentioned previously, I found some body language that indicates when Trump is scared and lying, so I clipped some video for you to see. If you can, watch them with and without the sound. Obviously, they are from the Commander-in-Chief forum aired September 7th 2016.

How to Detect Scaredy Trump Face

Mostly look at his eyes as they try to widen and squint at the same time. This is by far the biggest indication. He also speaks slightly faster, but that can be hard to hear because he normally speaks fast. In addition, he constantly glances away. When Trump is comfortable he tends to lean towards who he is talking. Again this can be hard to see because Trump moves his head a lot.

The first video is when he was asked "What's next?" if we successfully remove ISIS from Iraq. This is also where he said we should have taken the oil. His response is laden with fear at the idea of actually having to answer factually.

Note that his questioner is not responding well, which is probably why Trump is being thrown off. I also suspect this make Trump look through the crowd for approval from someone else.

He also shows the same behavior when asked about his "secret ISIS plan". Note how Trump looks startled when Matt Lauer first says the work "ISIS".

Finally, the most important one. The 'tells' are harder to see, but this is him answering if he is prepared to be president. The biggest tell is just before Trump speaks If I'm reading his body language correctly, he's not just scared to answer the question, he is scared to actually be president. Consider what that means.

How to Detect Lyin Trump Face

So how can you tell Trump is lying. Obviously, his lips are moving. (Que old joke groan).

Trump shows classic lying ques. First he tends to quickly glance up to his right when describing a memory. The theory is that he is engaging his left brain to construct fake memory rather than recalling a real one.

More telling is for a split second he smiles. You have to pay attention to see it, especially since he does similar facial expression. But, this is the most reliable 'tell'.

I this one, he is doing his most classic lie, "I was against the Iraq War". He shows the 'tell' on the word "was" in the sentences. "To hear Hillary says I WAS not against the war". 

In this case, the 'tells' are harder to see, but it is worth watching because it;s when he is talking about his intelligence briefing and shows him trying to construct a lie in the moment. You will see him make a strong glance up to his right on the word "what" in the phrase "WHAT our experts".

Now Trump could be the most blatantly liar in American history. He certainly is in my lifetime. You would be right to ask why bother when we only need to see if he is breathing.

Sure, but what we don't know is if he realizes he is lying. If I'm reading the body language correctly, at some level he does.

Let finish by stating I am only a rank amateur at reading body language, so take what I say with that in mind. Trump is a very emotive speaker, so I could easily be making "false positives." I leave you to judge.

I also have to point out the everyone looks bad under this kind of analysis. However, Trump often relies upon an image of invincibility to trick and manipulate. Anything that pierces that is worthwhile. Again, I leave you to judge.

Election 2016 Update 09-23

State of the Election 2016

Charlotte, NC and Tulsa, OK

Thankfully, while the protests in Charlotte where large, they were largely peaceful. Hopefully, the calming will continue, and I will use it as permission to go a little into the politics. Since Charlotte and Tulsa are politically the same issue, I will treat them as one.

First, the news is becoming "silo'd", meaning in some news source you only hear about this, while in others, there is almost no mention. In politics, this is significant because it means different audiences, in other words voters, are being affected by the new.

Considering that the news is now silo'd and fading, the political impact would be waning. However, it turns out that NC is a critical state. In most projected scenarios, Trump must win NC, and while he is currently ahead, it is only slightly. If Clinton can take this away, it's game over for Trump.

NC also has a large black population.

On top of that Trump's reflexive response had been to suggest profiling, stop and frisk, and suggesting drug use is the problem. All of these can be viewed as what would exasperate the situation by many (including myself).

Now 'many' is not 'all', but I think I'm safe in assuming that if you are black, you are likely part of the 'many'.

Considering this is an election year, Clinton has only made the minimal response. Partly this is due to the events themselves drowning out any attention, and what is left is taken by Trump. But it is also partly due to Clinton being more focused on the upcoming debate, than "in the moment" political maneuvering. I don't think, however, it is not a question of whether but when she confronts Trump on this, probably during the debate or at least later.

NY/NJ Bombings

This news is being pushed out, and I suspect has "cycled out". So, I will take to opportunity to talk about terrorism and the election. I already pointed out that the assumption that terrorist events helps Trump is not necessarily true. In the Brussels Bombing he had actually hurt himself. Here was the effect of the Orlando nightclub shooting on June 12th. Again, lets look at Real Clear Politics.

What you should see is that Trump AND Clinton where helped. More significantly, this is the only time both Trump and Clinton went up in the polls at the same time.

If you think about this, it makes sense. At this time Trump supporters are likely to seek strength, while Clinton supporters would seek calm and steadiness. What was different from before is that Trump did not erratically respond, but instead, focused on stopping immigration as the solution. Note that after the NY/NJ Bombings, he made the same response.

Election 2016 Update 09-22

State of the Election 2016

I realize I have been a bit dire in my last posts, so let me interject some levity before I start:

I have also found a recent discover about Trump. Many are saying Trump is controlled by the Mob.

Riots in Charlotte

It's been a tough few days. The riots in Charlotte are continuing to grow, and as you should know by now, I don't like to do political speculation on such subjects, so I'll make this quick. Trump started rather good, making a heartfelt speech with real empathy. But, now he's suggested profiling and started blaming drugs, attitudes that probably got us here in the first place. Clinton has so far been silent.

The Debate

Telling is that most of the punditry is speculating on how the debates will play out. I have never heard so much talk this soon. Debates rarely change the race, though in the midst we think they do, so maybe that will be the case here. However, most of us are seeing it as Armageddon. (I'll admit, I've had to watch a lot of cat videos to sleep lately).

Clinton has been quietly preparing, the reason why we only hear Trump speaking about the riots in Charlotte.

Many are Saying... Trump is a Shopolholic

Trump's Secret Addiction has made Him Part of the Mob

Many are saying Trump is controlled by the Mob. As with most stories about how someone falls prey to organized crime, his is common. It all began because of Trump’s addiction.

Trump does not smoke, nor does he drink. He seems a man free of vice. Well, except for flaunting his wealth, boasting, lying, infidelity, cheating, bullying, whining, and the desire to sleep with his daughter. But, apparently no addictions. That is until now.

Donald J. Trump is a shopaholic.

Apparently, decades of a lifestyle defined by expensive and high-quality purchases has drawn Trump to the forbidden fruit of the cheap, tacky, and tawdry. During his marriage troubles with Ivana, he secretly purchased $125 million dollars of beer hats. Then as financial troubles hit first in 1991, Trump reacted by buying $50 million dollars worth of backscratchers. This, of course, exasperated his money troubles, led to more bankruptcies, and his family had to step in.

In order to hide their shame, they had to secretly get rid of this stuff. Before they had been able to hide his illicit purchases in the cement foundations of construction sites, but the failures in their real estate business had closed that option. They had to get more creative. First, they pulped the backscratchers into paper, which became The Art of the Deal books, and re-purposed the plastic of the beer hats into pieces for the Trump the Game.

However, just as the Trump family was getting out of their financial troubles, Donald bought $350 million dollars worth of novelty ties and $175 million dollars worth of Old Spice. At that point, they considered going public about their father’s problem, but he had just gotten the contract for The Apprentice. They desperately needed the income and could not risk what the bad publicity might do.

Then Ivanka found a factory in China that could secretly bleach the ties and re-die them. They could then sell the ties as high fashion using their father’s recent rise in fame. In the same way, they were able to re-bottle the Old Spice as Trump Vodka. (Reportedly, Ivanka is still thankful no one actually drank that stuff).

That’s when they discovered that if they put Trump’s name on anything they could sell it. Even if they didn’t make money, they could turn his wasteful expenditures into tax deductions. “I’m with Stupid” t-shirts and sweat shirts were changed to “Trump University” clothing. The 10,000 cases of MD 20/20 became “Trump Wine”. And his warehouse of taxidermy became “Trump Steaks”. (Again, Ivanka is thankful no one ate those). As I demonstrated in Trump Is Broke, as long as they could continue to present Donald Trump as rich, successful, and in his own way classy, they would be able to keep the family solvent. However, this creates a perpetual dilemma. If his shopping addiction is ever discovered, the Trump name becomes tarnished, and the family is ruined.

The Trump family was now, more than before, a prisoner of their father’s addiction, forcing them to constantly cover for his escapades. For example, when Donald Trump snuck off to Hawaii to buy $15 million dollars worth of Hawaiian shirts, they covered by claiming he went to find Obama’s birth certificate. (Then, of course, they turned those into Trump dress shirts).

Then in a single night, Trump found a way to make his biggest purchase yet: $613 million dollars of bobble heads, garden gnomes, velvet Elvis paintings, Star Trek commemorative plates, Justin Bieber lunch boxes, plastic flamingo lawn ornaments, and anything with Scott Baio’s face on it. It was all too much.

So, they did what people do when out of money, keeping a shameful secret, and desperate enough to seek any option. They contacted the Mob. (They ran a construction company in New York during the 70s. Of course, they know people in the Mob).

Donald Trump had a long time mobster friend, Goldy Digits, who shared his sensitively about having small hands and an obsession with decorating everything with gold. Goldy, of course, knew how to get rid of something you did not want to be found. He gave instructions to create land fills and cover them with grass. And so, was created the first Trump golf course. The pink flamingos did prove a problem because they would poke out of the grass, but fortunately, the velvet Elvis paintings have proved a sturdy tarp. Until now, none have been made the wiser, though there have been rumors of garden gnomes being found on the greens.

Of course, the Trump family had to do their part. The Trump Foundation became a way to launder Mob money, and they had to purchase the Miss Universe Pageant to use for an international smuggling ring.

All was going well, until Trump mysteriously obtained $267 million dollars of hand-clapping baseball caps, “I don’t do mornings” coffee cups, and rubber chickens. Trying to figure out how to get rid of theses, they suddenly realized the one time you can give away tacky items in a prestigious way: a presidential campaign.

Baseball caps were converted to “Make America Great Again” caps, and they were off. Still short on funds, they used Trump's celebrity to avoid needing a lot of money up front until Goldy could embezzle from campaign donations. Goldy also thought he could shake down other politicians threatening to keep Donald in the race if they didn’t pay up. Unfortunately, no politicians buckled finding the threat of Trump getting the nomination ridiculous.

Then he won the nomination.

They were not worried about getting discovered through the Republican Convention. After all, Scott Baio and many of the other guests will play ball owing their entire fortune to Trump’s shopping addiction but afterward was another story. What would happen if Trump had to show his tax returns? Worse, what if he actually became president.

For now Goldy has been in able to keep Trump behaving with the threat that what happened to JFK could happen to him. (Of course, the Mob had nothing to do with the JFK assassination, but since Trump believes any conspiracy theory, Goldy’s ploy worked.) However, all know they’ll be able to control Trump for four years. In the meantime, Trump Jr. has stepped up making outrageous claims to keep his father from becoming president. (Skittles was actually Melania’s idea).

They did have the forethought, however, to promise the Wall, which is really intended to keep Trump from buying cheap souvenirs from Mexico. However, none are unaware of the danger they are in.

And, they still have not figured out what to do with the rubber chickens.

Election 2016 Update 09-21

State of the Election 2016

Again today, the "real" news is more important than political speculation. I felt it was more important to focus on How Soon We Forget. Please read instead.

How Soon We Forget

Now is Just Not that Bad

4,000 California Army National Guardsmen patrolled the city to enforce the law

I'd like you now to look up two relatively obscure movies, Gung Ho (1986) and Dutch (1991). If you can, watch them. If not, at least read their plots on Wikipedia. I'll wait.

I hope you noticed. Gung Ho was about losing American jobs to globalism. A significant turning point in Dutch is when they meet a family in a homeless shelter. Note that the family in Dutch were not aberrations, and the father had a good job. They lost their home due to the 1990's Recession caused by the shift to a Post Cold War economy.

Note the dates.

Gung Ho was during the Reagan Administration that is so often invoked with the glow of nostalgia as a time of plenty and growth. Long before NAFTA. Long before Trump uttered the words "because of China". During Reagan's first term, unemployment had reach 10%, and was the first time most Americans ever heard the word 'recession', mostly so we could avoid saying 'depression'. As Reagan took office, Chrysler was being bailed out, and he over saw the bail out of Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust Co. This remains the "most significant bank failure resolution in the history of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation,". Is any of this sounding familiar?

By his second term, there was constant anxiety of jobs being lost to Japan, as the country was coming into its own economic boom. (Why do I feel deja vu?)

During the time of Dutch, the H. W. Bush Administration, there was a banking crisis caused by lack of regulation. Later, a recession hit causing a rash of home loses, leading to the first time since the Great Depression a large number of middle class families became homeless.

And during all this time, we were dealing with a real concern that the world could be destroyed in nuclear war.

For many of you, this is history, but for at least half of us, this is memory.

Yes, 9/11 was the biggest foreign attack of my lifetime. And yes, the Great Recession was the biggest economic threat of my lifetime. But, look at where we were are now, compared to where we went to in the past. We have learned from the past.

Today our biggest threat is terrorism, before it was nuclear annihilation. Today we have growing difficulties in getting ahead, before it was homelessness.

I write this now, because this morning, Sept 21st 2016, there was a riot is Charlotte, N.C. Fortunately none were seriously hurt. This weekend, we had a terrorist attack. Fortunately none were killed. Please remember that more than 60 died in the L.A. Riots of 1992. In 1995, 168 died in the Oklahoma City Bombing.

At this point, I would apologize for minimizing other's suffering and pain. But I'm not. We are in an environment were too many have political and economic incentive to maximize and excite. Minimizing is what we need. Calming is what we need.

And what I find most frustrating, Trump and many of his supporters are more than old enough to remember when time were worse. Still, they want us to believe these times the worst. And I really can't count them alone. There are forerunners of Trump stoking the flames through radio, TV, and the internet. Again, many of them are old enough to remember. Many of them were part of those problem. They want us to imagine exaggerated fears that were realities of the past and peddle a past free of fear.

Ironically, in my lifetime, there is only one threat different and beyond those like him: Donald J. Trump.

Election 2016 Update 09-20

State of the Election 2016

Bombings in NY and NJ

The bombings have now become political. (That didn't take long.) I still feel, however, it too soon to speculate, so I won't.

Is the Bounce Here

I mentioned previously that there was a predictable bounce in the polls, where Trump pulls even and then Clinton pulls ahead. Also, predictable Clinton's leads in the NBC news polls. We had just started recently talking about bitherism.

However, it's too soon to see if this is a true bounce, because Trump didn't pull even first. Note that polls are now measuring "likely" voters as oppose to registered voters. That could change the trend lines.

In Other Words...

This is just a big "wait and see" day, so you should just take a break from the election and catch up on Netflix.

Trump is Broke

Trump is the Kardashian of Money

Kim Kardashian became famous by convincing everyone she was famous. Trump became rich convincing everyone he is rich.

Once you understand that, the rest is obvious. Trumps marketing strategy for much of his life has been selling his success. It’s a common business strategy. We instinctively imitate the people we want to be, which marketers figured out a long time ago. Rock stars sell records because we think their cool, and we want to be cool. Models sell clothes and perfume because their attractive, and we want to be attractive. And yes, you can also sell success this way.

Trump has always flaunted his success, but you can definitely say he started selling his success in 1987 when he published Art of the Deal. Note that his first bankruptcy was 1991, only four years later. From, then on there are more real estate bankruptcies, but there are also new business based primarily on the idea that Trump is a rich and successful business man, such as The Apprentice and Trump Vodka. In other words, as Trump was failing in the traditional family business of real estate, he shifted to the business of selling the Trump brand of wealth and success.

(I’m getting all of this from Wikipedia, so rather than pepper this post with a lot of footnotes you can just look there).

Now Trump's business is primarily licensing his name.

From here, we see why he is most sensitive when others suggest he is worth less than he says. For once, it might not be ego, but business necessity. This is also, the reasons there is so much discrepancy on how much he is worth. Much of the Trump wealth is based on the value of his intellectual property, the Trump name, which is subjective.

But a more interesting and bigger problem is that we don’t know how much he is in debt. How much you are worth is not how much you have. It’s how much you have minus how much you owe. Trump has never released that information. He could be in so much debt his net worth is zero.

Trump got himself into a sweet position. He is able to sell his name because people believes he is rich, even if he is not. This means even if he his broke, as long as he can borrow enough to keep people believing he is rich, he still gets to make money. Pretty sweet huh. What could go wrong?

Well, you could run for president.

Look, I don’t know that he is broke, but I do know this. If he is no where as rich as he claims, he will never release his tax returns. He will be broke if he does.

However, for us, there is a serious outcome. If Trump completes the election never releasing his tax returns, then we will never see another politician's tax returns again. The Trump candidacy could already be harming democracy.

So, I say this. Maybe he is a rich as he claims. But until we see his tax returns, we should treat him as if he is broke.

Election 2016 Update 09-19

State of the Election 2016

Terrorist Attacks Over the Weekend

As you have probably heard, there were 2 bombs and one knife attack this weekend that are suspected to be acts of terrorism.

My sincere belief is that we should hold off speculation on such matters until there is enough time to digest the facts. So, that's what I'll do.

Let me just say my gratitude that no one was killed and my empathy to those who were harmed and traumatized.

So How Do Terrorist Attacks Affect the Campaign?

In order to keep distance from current events, I will refer back to the Brussels Bombings on March 22.

The conventional wisdom is that terrorist events will help Trump. This is the issue Trump is running on, which usually means when it enters the news, it should help him. But not necessarily. An issue in the abstract has different politics than when it is actually occurring. In other words, Trump has to show he knows something.

If you look at the polling average around that time:

You see that this is the the largest point Clinton as so far gotten, 50.4, and the 2nd lowest of Trump's, 39. This is also the time he said "I have a very good brain" and that Obama "knew something". In other words, he reacted badly making him look less able to handle a crisis. So, the question is how discipline Trump is.

For, Clinton, this is where her recent pneumonia could hurt her. Her acting calm and thoughtful could be interpreted as her drained by the stress.

Do not be confused by standard troupes. "Clinton refused to call it Islamic terrorism". "Trump was too quick to assume it was terrorism" (unless it actually wasn't). These are arguments that only those who have already made up the mind respond to.

The real determination will be if Trump acts to erratic or Clinton acts too political. Otherwise, there could be no effect at all.

6th Reason No One Should Vote for Trump, and Counting....

Yes, We are Finally Talking About the Birther Nonsense

To add to our list of 5 Reasons No One Should Vote for Trump.

6^th Reason: He is a Bad Investor

Trump claims to be a great business man, but in the sense of being a good investor, his dalliance with birther nonsense disproves that.

Here’s what I mean. Let’s forget the racist implications for now (not that it’s not there) and focus on this as a business investment. Say I offered you $10,000, but if President Obama produces his birth certificate you have to give me a $100,000. That’s exactly how a good investor would look at this.

Now only a bad investor would ever take that deal. Odds are you would lose. When Trump publicly demanded President Obama’s birth certificate, he risked time, money, his reputation, and, yes, even his business. If the President ever does show his birth certificate, Trump is humiliated, looks like a buffoon, and would be suspected as having a questionable grasp on reality. The best outcome is Trump is proven as a crass opportunist and potential con man. The worst is that he is so discredited no one wants to ever listen or invest in him again. Whatever 15 minutes of publicity he would get could not be worth that risk.

I mean what was his backup plan? Demand to see his college transcripts? (Oh, wait.)

The only way you would see that as a good investment is if you honestly believed President Obama could not produce his birth certificate. I will not waste time explaining why that is really, really, and I mean really stupid. If you object to that, leave a comment and I will, very slowly, explain why.

Now if you doubt that analysis, then note that’s what actually happened.

One phenomenally stupid investment could be an aberration, but you see the same problem in other statements and proposals. For example, here’s what happens if we look at “taking Iraq’s oil” as an investment”.

Benefit: We gain resources and keep them from terrorist.

Cost and Risk:

• We definitely would have to commit troops indefinitely. 
• Our troops will be in harms ways and subject to terrorist attack 
• Terrorist will be confirmed in their argument “that it was always about oil’ and emboldened. 
• It will spur international criticism 
• Alliances would be endangered, especially those in the Middle East. 
• Countries with oil or reliant on middle eastern oil would be agitated. This means more attempts to gain nuclear weapons and makes other wars more likely

You can see, a bad investment.

So, now I encourage you to start looking at other proposals Trump makes as investments, and I bet you will start seeing the same disturbing trend.

Unfortunately, I have not been able to examine his business practices to better confirmed this trend. The problem is, besides my lack of skill, I need more details, than you can normally get, to assess what the risks were against the potential benefits. The other problem was he made so many other glaring mistake, I could not untangle them from his inability to assess risk. (Like starting an over-priced airline when the clear trend was that people wanted cheaper flights).

However, Warren Buffet does agree with me. During a Notre Dame lecture in 1991, Buffet described Trump’s real-estate failures as just paying more than the properties were worth. ^[1]

Now I know you are asking, how could he be a bad investor and such a good business man. Well, first I’m not convinced he is a good business man, but that’s another post. Second, there are other ways to make money and other reasons to start a business. But, there is another concerning way you can be a bad investor and still get rich. Only invest with other peoples money.

If you can get bank loans and others investors without using your own money, you can put yourself in the good old “heads I win, tails you lose” position. Doing this you can be a bad investor if you are a good enough salesman, and Trump is clearly a good salesman.

For example, you might get banks to loan you tons of money to open casinos, but make sure you can use bankruptcy laws to protect your own money. You might even brag about it. Ever hear of that happening?

This should really make you squirm, because in the scenario of Trump becoming president, we are the banks.

Election 2016 Update 09-16

State of the Election 2016

Trump in the News

We are finally talking about birtherism. Trump is trying to deflect this by claiming Clinton started it. The details of this get complicated, but I believe I'm safe in calling this "mostly false". You can see all the details here.

What is really going (whether Trump realizes or not) is that Trump is setting up a 'retort'. You've probably been in an argument with someone, where they argued back with a nonsensical response (at least nonsensical to you). However, that the argument was nonsensical doesn't matter. In their mind they had a response, so the argument ends in a draw.

The only way to get past such and en passe is if there is a third party.

So, when Trump is attacked with his Birther past, he makes the false claim that Clinton started it. The evidence has been debunk, but even debunked evidence is enough for his supporters. Clinton supporters of course will see this as nonsense and think worse of Trump (if that's possible). Therefore, an issue that was damaging to Trump becomes a kind of draw, to be decided by 'independents'. However, if you are an 'independent', you're soon sick of this and just want to stay out of it. Again, making it a draw. Note that I gave the same analysis on Clinton's "basket of deplorable" scandal.

Though, there was some damage. There was an 'opportunity cost'. When we could have been talking about two policies he just proposed, a new tax plan and paid leave for women, we are talking about his birther past. Potentially, this could also take back some gains he made in trying to show him as non-bigoted.

If I were Clinton, I would forget the racist aspect of this and focus on the nuttiest. The question should now be "did you ever believe Obama was born outside the country?". Anyone that would ever believe such a nutty conspiracy theory is 'temperamentally unfit to be president'. If he says he never believed, he's a con man. If he does, he's nuts.

I have a coming blog that points why this is another reason no one should vote for him, beyond the obvious.

If you haven't read it yet, I would also point out that many are saying Trump was born in Russia.

Clinton in the News

We're talking about Trump now, so hopefully she will have a nice weekend.

Election 2016 Update 09-15

State of the Election 2016

Health Records

OK, He got me. First I wrote that he was showing his medical records on Dr. Oz. Then, he said he wasn't, and I corrected the 09-14 post. Then he did.

Clinton then released her health records like a normal person.

Morning Google

Morning 'Trump' google was him being push off the podium by the pastor of a church. For 'Clinton' a rebuttal against Trump's accusations towards her foundation. For 'Trump vs Clinton', his recent growth in the polls.

There have been some recent reporting on the Trump Foundation that suggest improprieties and conflicts of interest, if he became president. The morning 'google' though suggest that this story is not drawing much attention. The problem is that because Clinton was in government, there were more laws and ethics the Clinton Foundation could break. The Trump Foundation would have to break tax law or commit out an out bribery to push the same investigations.

The biggest effect is that reporters are starting to believe they have been to hard on Clinton and too easy on Trump. Arguments are growing that they shouldn't try to be balance anymore and scrutinize Trump relentlessly. (Go press).

Poll Panic

Trump's recent rise have started to bring anxiety. I am even feeling it, and I predicted it. However, remember the polls reflect days, weeks, or even a month in the past, so these reflect Clinton's bad weekend.

The morning google suggests that negative press is moving back towards Trump, and this could push them down again.

My bigger concern is that so far Trump has only been punished by his "self inflicted wounds", and only then, by his most egregious. He seems to have recently shown more restraint and act more conventional, and he might be able to slide by with a "benefit of low expectations". If so, even proven corruption and bad debating might make no difference.

One potential way Clinton could fight this is to rightfully play the "women's card". Many women know what it's like to have every mistake of theirs count against them, while the chest thumping guy is always excused. This is definitely how she is being treated. Reminding this could keep Trump from gaining his most needed demographic.

Election 2016 Update 09-14

State of the Election 2016

Before I get into the ugliness of the news, I'd like to continue an ongoing meme and show you my favorite "Basket of Adorables" from Karen Tumulty.

OK, enough of that.

Trump in the News

So now that you know my process, I can tell you that the 'Trump' google came up with an article about donors and Paul Ryan. The story was soon pushed out by others, but the main point is that it was not "basket of deplorables' despite Trump's attempts to keep it in the new.

This is attack is now problematic because of Pence's refusal to call David Duke a deplorable.

I made reference to this in the 09-12 update. The "basket of deplorables" argument now has the problem of making us all ask about just what number of supporters are deplorable, and questions Trump not calling them that.

However, this tactic only works when confronted by a Clinton surrogate or interviewer willing to ask. Trump and Pence can bring this up in rallies and commercials with no fear. This now becomes only a way to "rally the base" and build enthusiams, for both sides. For Trump, this is the opportunity to draw in traditional republican voters that are uncomfortable with him. For Clinton, this is a way to bring enthusiasm when she has a problem making her voters entusiastic.

There is also the beginning of an investion into the Trump Foundation by the NY AG, but it's too early to tell if this goes anywhere.

Oh and Trump made a childcare policy speech. Like this would happen? Though, if Trump gets elected, the country will be run by Ivanka, while he plays golf, so maybe.

Clinton in the News

Guess what? Clinton's still sick. The talk now has moved from her lack of transparency (which only reporters care about) to how much medial information presidential candidates should disclose.

Both candidates have said they will release more medical records. Here's the catch. Trump is going to do it on the Dr. Oz show. And, as of this morning, the campaign has stated, his recent test results will not be released.

Now, I'm going to indulge into a little fun speculation. I wonder if Trump can release real medical records. He may have none. Doctor shopping would not be out of Trump's character, and he may have only seen doctors telling him what he wanted to hear. In other words, this guy could really be his doctor.

Dr. Harold Bornstein

Many are Saying... Trump was Born in Russia

Many people are saying Donald Trump was born in Russia. When the Guardian asked him to release his birth certificate, he refused. This spawned further investigation which uncovered evidence that Trump is not a native born American.

In truth, he was born to poor Georgian farmers. However, it was part of the Soviet Union, so the birth certificate was filed in Moscow. Realizing he was born with hands too small for farming, they knew they would starve if they kept him, and he would not survive in the country because of his strangely orange hair. There was a long running superstition that small hands and orange hair came from the devil, and they feared angry villagers would kill him.

So, they bribed a corrupt official that had contacts in the U.S.

Fred Trump realized early on that his oldest son, Fred Jr., had too much good in his soul to take over the family business, so he sought another son who would share his killer instinct. Trump Senior also believed in the Georgian superstition and reached out to the contacts he had made in the U.S.S.R.

Hearing of Juri (Donald's birth name, pronounced 'Yuri'), the boy was taken into the Trump household, treated as family and named Donald Juri Trump. The nature of his birth was kept secret since Cold War fears were on the rise.

To further the secret, Donald was required to die his hair black. Donald kept this up until his father past and then he let it go to its natural orange. Having to live with such a s secret has taken other tolls. For instance, he obsessively asks for the birth certificate of those that get close to him in fear they may also be a Soviet plant.

This proved a mistake because Putin remembered the stories of the strange orange haired, small handed boy, and made the connection. Putin contacted him and told Donald he would keep his secret, only if he would run for president, and if successful do his bidding. In order, for Putin to know that Trump is still in his control, Donald must regularly and publicly complement Putin to confirm his allegiance.

Trump has been doing all he can to not be elected, hoping that Putin will let him go, having no further use for him.

Unfortunately, Putin has been very successful in covering up any remaining evidence, but not before it got onto the internet. This is why we must demand Donald J. Trump's birth certificate and have it examined to ensure it is not a forgery.

Election 2016 Update 09-13

State of the Election 2016

Since most most of the news today is a rehash of yesterday, I'm going to take to opportunity to cover some background.

How Do I Get Updated

My start is to just google the word "Trump", then "Clinton", then "Trump vs Clinton", only looking at what the first headline that comes up. This gives me a scene at what people on most interested that day.

I then check to polls. You should not follow a single poll or try to judge as each poll comes out. Instead, you should look for poll averages. That way biases, different methods, and outliers get averaged out. Usually, I look at Real Clear Politics. And then I take a quick look at the projections at FiveThirtyEight. I;m not looking at these to see who is winning or losing. I'm doing so, to see what effect different news story have had.

After that, I just listen to the news throughout the day. I'll, also, get into the art of listening to the news later. I work in front of a computer all day and need to listen to something while I work. The news repeats itself so much, I can tell what they are talking about by the tone of their voice.

If what I'm hearing starts to sound to bias, I'll switch quickly to a source with exactly the opposite politics. I'm not so much looking to hear the different argument as much as to whether they are talkng about it at all.

How the Polls are looking

On 09-08, I said the polls should go to "+2% Clinton lead". (I actually described this as a 'guess'). Let me go into a little more detail on that. First I neglected to include a "bounce", meaning the polls will go closer, and Trump may even get ahead for a day, but then the polls bounce up towards an average of +2% Clinton. Note this chart from Real Clear Politics.

You should note the diamond patterns. Clinton and Trump move closer and then break away, the "bounce". Before election day, regardless of how they acted before, polls historically move to the "natural" state of only a difference of 1 to 3%. So +2% for Clinton is just me following history.

There's obviously a lot more to this, but I'll have to go into that later.

Election 2016 Update 09-12

State of the Election 2016

Trump in the News

The news on Trump is that there was little news on Trump. Since the media has trouble focusing on two candidates at the same time, there will be this back and fourth.

Clinton in the News

Basket Full of Deplorables
On Friday, Clinton described half of Trump supporters as deplorable, meaning racist, sexist, xenophobic, etc.

Now she did quickly apologize for this (sort of).

“Last night I was ‘grossly generalistic,’ and that's never a good idea. I regret saying ‘half’ — that was wrong,"

But, she then followed declaring she would still point to the 'deplorables' supporters and that Trump caters to them. You can read the full initial speech and apology, at Politico.com.

You will notice that Clinton did show empathy and respect for the other 'half'. However, you know that means little in politics. What appears obvious is that Clinton is trying to walk the line between an an apology and still maintaining this line of argument. This means that every time Trump brings this up, Clinton has the opportunity to bring up Trump's 'deplorableness'.

I would say leaders should avoid making attribution errors, so she should have said 'those with deplorable beliefs' rather that just 'deplorable', in both a political and moral sense, I'm also concerned that many Clinton supporters have responded by saying the statement is true. They argue some Trump supporters are 'deplorable' (not hard), and they number close to half (not easy). This is definitely cementing partisan divisions and likely to be problematic even if Clinton is elected. Like Benghazi, this will never fully go away.

I'm not sure how this plays out. At the very least it stopped Trumps loses from his comments during the forum. Also, Clinton loses some of her 'high ground' is the debate. But, there is a danger that this could drive those uncomfortable with Trump to full support of him.

Fortunately for Clinton,this came out on a weekend, and the 9/11 weekend at that. This means the story had three days before most heard of it and included her apology. Plus 9/11 put a semi-pause for a day on politics. And the good is that when talking about this, we aren't talking about her emails.

Hillary Can't Take the Heat

During a 9/11 ceremonoy, Clinton went faint due. Most likely this was due to a recent diagnosis of pneumonia combined with dehydration from the heat. There is even footage of her almost collapsing and having to be held up by secret service agents.

The problem here is that it gives purchase to the 'Hillary's health conspiracy', which now will never die. However, it does crowd out the 'basket of delplorables' and could lay a trap for Trump. If he goes to far with this and acts to smug then the suggestion is that he is happy about her being sick.

5 Reasons No One Should Vote for Trump, and Counting....

Trump is Uniquely Unfit to be President

Believe it or not, I have so far been pretty easy on Trump. Sure I started comparing him to Hitler, but who hasn't, and I was fair about. I even said it in the title, Call Him Hitler But Lets Be Fair About.

Sure, I made fun of his hair and tiny, oh so tiny, hand. And again who hasn't. But I haven't gone on a long rant about his demagoguery and racism. You know I haven't even gone into what gives me Trump nightmares.

And that's was part of the point. I don't need to. Trump is not just unfit, he is uniquely unfit in ways no other candidate has been before. That Trump is a unique is not just obvious but bragged about by his campaign. However, in That Orange Guy Defies Convention I showed that this means he must be more critically judged not less.

Whoever your are there are many reasons you should not vote for him. Here's five.

1. Total Lack of Experience

An election is a job interview. We should treat as such, and so should the candidates.

Imagine you went to interview with no experience on your resume and when asked to demonstrate you can do the job, you answered, "I have a very good brain." Do you think you would be hired? Why should Trump?

At best you would be put in the lowest position and work your way up. The only way is to fast talk past the interview. Trump went straight to trying to be president and has not really shown a reason he should be. This is historically different. ^[1]

Now I know many view his lack of experience as lack of corruption (as if a rich business man could not be corrupt). In fact, government experience and success as a President does not always track, but they all had at least some. Looking at Trump over the past year has shown me why.

2. Sows Distrust in Our Democracy

In Trumps My Man, I referenced how Trump has suggested that his loss would mean the "system was rigged". You realize no presidential candidate has ever said this, right? Even Nixon did not contest a very close election against JFK for "the good of the country." ^[2] I’m talking about friggin Nixon.

Now after every elections there’s some sore losers saying the election was stolen or promoting conspiracies. But fortunately the numbers are few. If too many believed the President was not legally elected our democracy would be destroyed. ^[3] For Trump to even suggest this, endangers the country.

Worse, there’s no political reason to do this. Telling your supporters the election is rigged encourages them to stay home. The only reason to do this is to spare your ego. The kindest conclusion would just be ego driven stupidity, but to me this is just loving yourself more than your country.

3. Not Committed to the Job

In Trump's Utility Function, I showed that Trump’s choices in campaigning was best explained by him wanting to have fun as much as be president. This should make you mad. Why would we want a president not 100% committed to the job.

4. Does Not Learn from History

As I was writing "Trumps Utility Function" I kept thinking, “if I can see these problems with the campaign why couldn’t Trump.” All I did was research a little history and look at how presidents have won in the past. Trump should have at least done that. Plus one consultant could tell him more than I could.

Now I know Trump was campaigning in an innovated way, and I would admit it was successful to a point. However, you still do the research. First, when suddenly your way is not working your research can tell you why and how to adapt. Second, anyone who’s followed politics for two minutes will tell you that what works in the Primary does not necessarily work in the General.

The old saying goes, “those that refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”. Trump just repeated every mistake you can make running for president. If he becomes president, it will be us doomed by every mistake he repeat.

5. Lacks Moral Courage

In every election I can remember all presidential candidates confronted overt racism. Sure, there were some subtle messages or "dog whistles", and at lower elections you can't always say the same. But there was always a line, they would not cross and when that point came they stood against it.^[4] In And Now About Racism, you can see Trump did not.

It's not hard. It's run for president 101. You can win without courting die hard racists. The KKK is not popular in the country.

This is important because when racism gets out of hand, it leads to violence. There's a reason why presidential candidates do not let this go too far. ^[5] It divides the country they want to lead.

This is not a question of whether he is racist or not, this is about courage. A president should at least share our most basic morals and the courage to stand up for them. This is what is known as moral courage. Are you really saying racism is part of our basic morality. Then shouldn't a president stand against at least its most overt forms. Otherwise, that's just moral cowardice.

In the End, Just Not a Leader

Now this is just a start. There are more reasons that he is just not qualified to be president, but I'll get into those later. I also want to note, that if this were you or me, any of these would just be human. But, we are talking about the job of president which demands more. Any of us could faint at the sight of blood, but if you do, you cannot be a surgeon.

The common thread is that these are all traits of a leader. Now, I know your going to say, he's a successful business man, he must be a leader. Not true. Business men pay their employees to follow them. He can get anyone to follow him if he pays enough.

Being a leader is a lot more than getting cheers in a rally. You need these traits, and every presidential candidate has shown them to at least some extent, even if they had to fake it.

This should concern you regardless of your party, ideology, and even if you like everything he is saying or promising. Failure in politics does not only prevent you from getting want you want, it discredits that we should even give it to you. Especially, if you elected a failure of a president.

We have to stop treating him as a kid at a recital, where we applaud him because he's cute. We have to judge by the standards of being president and so far he has not met that bar.

Now I know what you're going to say. "I support him because he is a successful business man, and I have confidence in him. A man like him will succeed as president". In other words, Trump is a rich man that sells you confidence. You know that's the definition of con-man, right?

Election 2016 Update, 09-09

State of the Election 2016

Trump in the News

The result of Wednesday forum has pushed the focus on Trump's bromance with Putin, I mentioned yesterday. However, I still stand by my claim that this story does not shift the race. That Pence defending Trump is confirmation. Among Trump voters this has little meaning while anti-Trump voters tend to fixate on it. I'm tempted to psychoanalyze this on both sides, but I won't.

What I did forget to list was Trump's comments on his intelligence briefings. Again this is something anti-Trump voters would care about more than others. I would say the bigger impact is behind the scene. Trump effectively insulted the briefing agent as unprofessional, which by extension, insults all in the intelligence services. But their hands are tied by the same professionalism, so what could they do. I guess they could leak...

Hey did you hear about the leaked NBC story. Apparently, that intelligence briefing included a little drama with Trump's military adviser, General Flynn. Remember how I said only generals in disfavor would work with Trump.

Clinton in the News

Big surprise, we're talking about her emails. At least the right leaning media is. I still contend that would be happening anyway, but there is no way I could prove that.

The more interesting turn is that Clinton held a real press conference. More interesting is that you probably didn't hear about.

What is Aleppo?

This story is probably going to die, but if it doesn't it could change the race. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, showed complete ignorance on Aleppo, a current battleground of the Syrian Civil War. (We're talkin ISIS buddy. A big deal if you want to be president.)

As one who always ask if I don't know something, even if it make me look stupid, I really do respect him for asking. I also respect the way he dealt with it later. He didn't make the same lame excuses like other politicians had in the past.

Though given this is a current news story about the most concerning conflict and likely source of terrorism, my respect is not enough to save him.

If this does kill Gary Johnson's presidential bid, those votes are more likely to go to Clinton. That could mean a 4% shift. Can you say "game change".

But in this year's weirdness, it could go the other way.

We don't like the idea of electing a dishonest president, but we have before and prefer it to electing someone dangerous. That pretty much sums up the race. However, we don't mind electing someone dumb. In fact, we kinda like it, especially, if he is honest and nice. I don't know much about Gary Johnson, but from what I see, he's honest and nice.

I know I'm setting up the plot to a sitcom, but considering how strange this race has gone.....

Election 2016 Update, 09-08

State of the Election 2016

Today I'm going to try something different. Instead, of post semi-weekly deep topics (which so far have been how bad Trump is), I'm going to also post how the election is going, based on my morning update ritual (which I will describe later). Hopefully, I can keep this up every weekday until the election.

Trump in the News?

No surprise, The news is focused on Trump's answers to in last night forum. Trump made three statement that I expected would be the focus. None I believe have a big impact on the race.

Are generals are bad, and he might fire them once President
The reason this is controversial is that in traditional politics, especially Republican, this is heresy. The president should be taking the advice of our generals, not criticizing them. However, given that many are dissatisfied with our policies, this might be the time for heresy.

You might also think this will anger our military service and veterans, But, most suffer the consequence of bad generals, so our troops are not always going to defend them.

What this does change is that every general now knows that Clinton has to be elected for them to keep their jobs. You can expect them to use what influence they can. Though right now, that is not much. From now, on the only generals supporting Trump should be those already in disfavor or willing to "jump ship".

We should have taken Iraq's oil
This was by far the most troubling statement, and if you are not already troubled by him, you should be now. This is crazy stupid. I mean wacko Ben Carson stupid. (Yeah I said it.) First, we can't "take" oil. Oil is under the ground. We would have to capture oil, which means American troops perpetually in Iraq and under constant attack. Not to mention the moral and diplomatic impact it would have.

However, why this is so stupid is not directly obvious. (Though it did just take me a paragraph). If you are already susceptible to jingoistic rhetoric, you won't see the problem.

Putin is not so bad
Trump once again defended his admiration of Putin. This will probably have the least effect and may have already faded away. First, it only reinforces an existing criticism without advancing it. Second, Putin is in some ways an adversary and an ally, so this is not hard to defend. The more troubling aspects is the psychological implications which only appeal to those already against him. I suspect you will only hear about this in left-leaning media.

Clinton in the News

For Clinton, there is not as much noise. Most will be probably focused on her bad answer to the email scandal. But, we would probably talk about that anyway. There was only one answer that stood out.
No ground troops in Syria or Iraq

This could have the most substantive and long lasting impact. Clinton stated unequivocally that she will not put ground troops in Syria or Iraq. Now this statement is going to get parsed by all sides, but I took it to mean "we will not use ground troops to hold territory."

This was not said in a way that could appeal to the Military, but more likely was to ease her more left supporters. I suspect this is also a set up to later drive Trump to say he will put ground troops in Iraq, but more likely the former.

Trump vs Clinton

Both did bad in the forum. They just don't know how to talk to those that serve in our military. What we may have seen is a preview to how they will debate in future, in particular Trump. I still can't cognate what my intuition is telling me on this, so I will have to go at that later.

The polls and projections are predictably moving closer. Before those afraid of a Trump presidency like me, that is in line with political fundamentals. What I am looking to see is if they level off to what I currently guess (please note I said 'guess') to be a +2% Clinton lead in the national polls and 60/40 odds for Clinton vs Trump in the projections. If there is no level off in the next two to three weeks, I would be concerned.

Oh and one more thing. If you have taped the forum and an hour to waste, please watch Trump's section without the sound. I swear I say him in panic answering at least two questions. Look for his eyes widening, slight loss of color in his skin, and speaking faster. And I think I saw a tell. He glances to the left when he feels in trouble.

And Now About Racism....

What You First Must Know About Racism

Now I’m going to talk about racism.[1] This certainly won’t be the only time, but for now, I can start with an important point, what may be the most important point. Ready? Here it is:

If you are vulnerable to racism, you worry less about the racist. You worry about all the others that ignore him.

When you find you have to worry about racism, you soon realize your biggest threat is not the country turning against you. It’s that one racist in the right place that goes unnoticed. That one teacher that gives you a lower grade than you deserve, just enough to change what college you go to. That person in HR that throws away your resume because they don’t like your last name. That landlord that won’t let you move to a better neighborhood. That one person in authority that decides your kind is always guilty of something. The one juror that decides your fate before the trial has begins. The politician that finds he can get a few more votes vilifying you.

In every one of those cases, you know that if that one person was exposed and not tolerated, you would be safe. Unfortunately, you know that more likely, as long as they are careful, no one will stop them. When a racist stands up and confronts you, you can deal with him just like anyone who confronts you. But that rarely happens (at least these days). Instead, he operates under the shadow of rationalizations and innuendos. And because of this, most of the time you find yourself having to prove the “intent” of another person, which is rarely possible.

The only one who can truly stop a racist is those closest to him.

So there it is. You learn that your fate is not in the hands of the racist but everyone that lets him operate unchecked

The important point here is that this is not about hate, decency, or even good and evil. Someone can be the kindest and non-racist person in the world, but if you know they will not stand up to a racist friend, then you are not safe with that person. You may like them. You may respect them, but you cannot trust them.

How could you trust someone knowing that if having to choose between you and the racist that hates you, they would choose the racist?

Now I realize that asking you to stand up to a coworker, friend, relative, or worse yet boss can be a lot to ask. I have not always lived to that standard and would not ask you to, But it does not take much. Just once in a while. If we all did at least that, racism could not grow. It just takes one person to stand up when it matters.

And it’s not too much to ask that you stand against racism when you vote.

We can’t just ask our leaders to not be racist, they have to be ready to take action against it. I know you think racism is wrong, so why would you not ask your candidate to stand up to a racist. That’s just being a leader.

Fortunately, we live in a time where such leaders are not hard to find. Here’s what one looks like.

Here's again what it looks like.

And let us remember the George W. Bush lead us away from bigotry and racism in the midst of 9/11.

Here's what it doesn't look like.

Now I know he later renounced David Duke and made the lame excuse that "he didn't hear the question". But what about this?

And this?

Even as President, his first response it to talk about himself and conflate racism with other issues.

Now, I know many of you will say he has renounced this as well, but President Trump has never renounced racism when he was first asked. He always took at least three times before he would make even the most anodyne statement. Compare this to the force and voice he so willing to show on other issues.

And I'm not even going into President Trump's own racist remarks and the role he has played (yet). A president is supposed to lead us away from racism not towards it. To do, otherwise, is cowardice pure and simple. President Trump is either too much a coward to tell what he really thinks, or he is too much a coward to tell a bigot he is wrong. Either way, he is a coward, and why would we want a coward for a president.